Forex

Pound Vulnerable as U.K. Prepares to Provide Brexit Plan Details

Published

7 years ago

August 20, 2017

Pound Vulnerable as U.K. Prepares to Provide Brexit Plan Details

Brexit may dominate factors influencing the pound’s fortunes again this week, with the U.K. set to lay out its position in at least three areas of negotiation with the European Union.

Uncertainty about the next round of Britain-EU talks due by month-end could weigh on sterling, which was the worst-performing Group-of-10 currency last week. The U.K. is said to be preparing to publish on Monday details on how it will treat confidential EU information obtained before Brexit and on goods placed on supply chains in the EU single market.

While more information on the government’s plans is a “favorable development,” sterling could be stuck as “there’s a number of potholes on the road forward in negotiations,” said Lee Hardman, foreign-exchange strategist at MUFG in London. “The market is still very cautious and uncertain on what the final outcome will be.”

The pound was at $1.2860 as of 5:50 p.m. in London on Friday, having slid more than 2 percent in three weeks. Sterling was at 91.36 pence to the euro, having reached 91.50 pence earlier, its weakest level in 10 months.

Currency markets will also focus on a gathering of top central bankers in Wyoming for their annual policy summit at Jackson Hole between Aug. 24-26. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen and European Central Bank President Mario Draghi are scheduled to speak.

Recent U.K. economic reports provided little support to sterling, with underlying trends in last week’s retail and labor data signaling that wages weren’t keeping up with inflation. Gross domestic product readings on Aug. 24 will be closely watched to see how recent data have fed into second-quarter growth.

Political Risk

The Citigroup Economic Surprise Index for the U.K. reached a five-year low of minus 51.9 last week. The gauge has remained under the zero mark, which denotes that economic data have been missing estimates, since May.

Strategists at HSBC Holdings Plc, including Daragh Maher, recommend selling the pound against the dollar at current levels with a target of $1.2510. A swift decline toward $1.26 “would likely rejuvenate the notion that GBP is also suffering from political risk. The probability of a hard Brexit or no deal increases the longer there is little progress in the U.K.-EU negotiations,” they wrote in a note dated Aug. 17.

“The U.K. is releasing position papers but it remains to be seen whether U.K. aspirations will be acceptable to the EU,” they wrote. “The FX market may have pushed politics into the background, but it has not disappeared.”

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Naira Reverses Gain, Closes at 370/Dollar

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Samed Olukoya

Is the CEO and Founder of Investors King Limited. He is a seasoned foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Business Insider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and other prominent platforms. With over two decades of experience in global financial markets, Olukoya is well-recognized in the industry.

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Naira

Naira Gains on Dollars at NAFEX, Others at Black Market

Published

7 hours ago

October 9, 2024

Iyanuoluwa Martins

The Naira gained a value of N73.39 to close the Tuesday session at N1,561.76/$1 at the official window, pulling a 4.5 percent gain in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX).

According to data obtained from the FMDQ Securities Exchange, this is compared to N1,635.15/$1 published in the preceding session on Monday.

Turnover published on the FMDQ Group website stood at $253.68 million, indicating that the session’s turnover rose by 100.9 percent. This is a decrease of $127.44 million compared to $126.24 million published the previous day.

The domestic currency also witnessed a gain against the British currency but closed flat on the Euro on Tuesday.

On the Pound Sterling, the local currency made an appreciation of N43.82 to wrap the session at N2,131.62/£1 from N2,175.44/£1 that it sold at the previous session.

Meanwhile, against the Euro, the Nigerian currency closed at N1,788.98/€1.

Data from the black market showed that the Naira appreciated against the US Dollar, the UK Pound Sterling, the Euro, and the Canadian Dollar.

The local currency recorded a N14.28 gain to go from N1,681.67 per Dollar to N1,667.39/$1 while on the UK currency, the Naira rose to N2,132.13, a N24.10 gain from N2,156.23

For the Euro, the Naira pulled a N19.12 appreciation to close at N1,833.63 versus N1,852.75 and added 62 cents on the Canadian Dollar to close at N1,206.93 against Monday’s N1,207.55 per CAD.

Naira

Naira Set to Stabilise Against Dollar by Year-End, FSDH Bank Predicts

Published

7 hours ago

October 9, 2024

Yetunde Olugbenga

First Securities Discount House (FSDH) Merchant Bank Ltd has projected that the Naira will stabilise against the Dollar in the fourth quarter of 2024.

This projection was attributed to the commencement of Dangote Refinery operations and the October 1, announcement that the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation Limited (NNPCL) has started Naira for crude with the 650,000 barrels a day refinery.

FSDH Merchant Bank Ltd report titled Priorities for Economic Stability in the Short-Term noted that the Naira’s stabilisation against the USD would be influenced by a reduction in foreign exchange pressure, particularly the Naira-for-crude initiative.

The Nigerian Naira has been on a downward spiral against the United States Dollar since President Bola Ahmed Tinubu removed subsidies and announced he had floated the local currency.

The Naira immediately plunged from about N750/US$ to over N1600/US$ across the nation’s key foreign exchange segments and eroded the profitability of import-dependent companies.

FSDH Merchant Bank noted that petroleum products account for 30-40% of Nigeria’s import bills. Therefore, Dangote Refinery is expected to ease that burden and further enhance the nation’s economy.

The report also highlights a 45.2% surge in trade surplus from a US$6.1 billion surplus in FY 2023 to US$8.9 billion for FY 2024.

Similarly, portfolio investment inflows increased due to the high interest rate. Still, the report noted that the surge in inflows is yet to crystalize.

Naira

Naira Weakens to N1,635/$1 at NAFEM, Sells N1,681/$1 at Black Market

Published

1 day ago

October 8, 2024

Iyanuoluwa Martins

Naira to Dollar Exchange- Investors King Rate - Investors King

The Naira depreciated against the US Dollar in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) on Monday, October 7 to N1,635.15/$1.

Analysis done by Investors King showed that the local currency lost 0.24 percent or N3.94 at the specialised window, according to data obtained from the FMDQ Securities Exchange.

This is compared to N1,631.21/$1 published in the preceding session on Friday.

This coincided with a drop in the turnover on Monday as secondary data showed an aggregate of $126.24 million on record, compared to the $239.36 million turnover reported on Friday.

This represents a drop of $113.12 million or 47.3 percent.

Last week, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) announced that it sold $543.5 million to authorised dealers and deposit money banks (DMBs) to reduce observed market volatility caused by demand from importers and seasoned demand for FX between September 6 and 30, 2024.

According to a statement issued by Omolara Duke, the Director of Financial Markets Department of the CBN, the transaction was through a two-way quote at the Nigeria Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM) on 11 dealing days.

In a different pattern, the local currency closed flat against the Pound Sterling and appreciated on the Euro at the week’s opening session.

Trading against the British pound, the local currency closed at N2,175.44/£1 while it closed at the rate of N1,788.96 per Euro, a gain of N41.15 from N1,830.11.

The Naira also dropped against the US Dollar at the unofficial black market as it closed at N1,681.67 from N1,676.56 quoted on Friday. This signified a N5.11.

It followed the same pattern against the Pound Sterling and the Euro trading at N2,156.23/£1 and N1,852.75/€1 respectively, losing N2.40 and 60 Kobo from N2,153.83/£1 and N1,852.15/€1.

The local currency also declined by N5.37 on the Canadian Dollar as it fell to N1,207.55/CAD1 from N1,202.18/CAD1