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Pound Vulnerable as U.K. Prepares to Provide Brexit Plan Details

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pound-sterling
  • Pound Vulnerable as U.K. Prepares to Provide Brexit Plan Details

Brexit may dominate factors influencing the pound’s fortunes again this week, with the U.K. set to lay out its position in at least three areas of negotiation with the European Union.

Uncertainty about the next round of Britain-EU talks due by month-end could weigh on sterling, which was the worst-performing Group-of-10 currency last week. The U.K. is said to be preparing to publish on Monday details on how it will treat confidential EU information obtained before Brexit and on goods placed on supply chains in the EU single market.

While more information on the government’s plans is a “favorable development,” sterling could be stuck as “there’s a number of potholes on the road forward in negotiations,” said Lee Hardman, foreign-exchange strategist at MUFG in London. “The market is still very cautious and uncertain on what the final outcome will be.”

The pound was at $1.2860 as of 5:50 p.m. in London on Friday, having slid more than 2 percent in three weeks. Sterling was at 91.36 pence to the euro, having reached 91.50 pence earlier, its weakest level in 10 months.

Currency markets will also focus on a gathering of top central bankers in Wyoming for their annual policy summit at Jackson Hole between Aug. 24-26. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen and European Central Bank President Mario Draghi are scheduled to speak.

Recent U.K. economic reports provided little support to sterling, with underlying trends in last week’s retail and labor data signaling that wages weren’t keeping up with inflation. Gross domestic product readings on Aug. 24 will be closely watched to see how recent data have fed into second-quarter growth.

Political Risk

The Citigroup Economic Surprise Index for the U.K. reached a five-year low of minus 51.9 last week. The gauge has remained under the zero mark, which denotes that economic data have been missing estimates, since May.

Strategists at HSBC Holdings Plc, including Daragh Maher, recommend selling the pound against the dollar at current levels with a target of $1.2510. A swift decline toward $1.26 “would likely rejuvenate the notion that GBP is also suffering from political risk. The probability of a hard Brexit or no deal increases the longer there is little progress in the U.K.-EU negotiations,” they wrote in a note dated Aug. 17.

“The U.K. is releasing position papers but it remains to be seen whether U.K. aspirations will be acceptable to the EU,” they wrote. “The FX market may have pushed politics into the background, but it has not disappeared.”

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

Naira

CBN Sells Fresh Dollar to BDCs at N1,021/$

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Bureau De Change Operator

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has once again initiated direct sales of dollars to licensed Bureau De Change (BDC) operators across the country.

The latest circular from the apex bank announces the sale of $10,000 to each BDC at a rate of N1,021 per dollar.

This is the second round of such sales this month and the fourth in the current year.

The directive mandates BDCs to sell the allocated dollars to eligible end-users at a spread not exceeding 1.5 percent above the purchase price, translating to a maximum selling price of N1,036.15 per dollar.

Addressing concerns about adherence to guidelines, the CBN said it is important for BDC operators to work within the prescribed framework.

The intervention targets retail-end transactions, including travel allowances, tuition fees, and medical payments, among others.

BDCs are instructed to commence payment of the Naira deposit to designated CBN accounts and submit necessary documentation for FX disbursement at respective CBN branches.

This latest initiative follows previous interventions by the CBN, including the sale of $10,000 to BDCs earlier this month at N1,101 per dollar. Such measures aim to shore up the Naira’s value and ensure stability in the forex market amid economic uncertainties.

The CBN’s sustained efforts to provide adequate forex liquidity underscore its commitment to safeguarding the country’s currency and facilitating seamless foreign exchange transactions for businesses and individuals alike.

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Forex

Investors in Turmoil as Zimbabwe’s New Currency Wipes Out 330% Stock Market Gain

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Zimbabwe’s financial landscape has been rattled by the introduction of the new currency ZiG, spelling trouble for investors who had sought refuge in the stock market amidst economic turmoil.

The Zimbabwe Stock Exchange (ZSE) All Share Index has plummeted by 99.95% since the rollout of ZiG on April 5. This has erased more than 330% gain recorded earlier this year.

The introduction of ZiG, short for Zimbabwe Gold, was intended to provide stability to the country’s currency and succeed the embattled Zimbabwean dollar, which had already lost 80% of its value in 2024 alone.

However, instead of instilling confidence, the new currency has sent shockwaves through the stock market, leaving investors grappling with the fallout.

Prior to the currency conversion, investors had flocked to the stock market as a safe haven amid the Zimbabwean dollar’s depreciation and soaring inflation rates, which had reached a seven-month high of 55.3% in March.

However, the abrupt introduction of ZiG has reversed their fortunes, plunging share prices and trading volumes as the market grapples with the transition.

Justin Bgoni, the CEO of the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange, attributed the market’s poor performance to a combination of factors, including delays in currency conversion by financial institutions and tight liquidity conditions.

He noted that investors were also hesitant and uncertain about the value of assets denominated in ZiG terms, further exacerbating the situation.

The conversion of share prices from the old currency to ZiG at a swap rate of 1 ZiG to 2,498 Zimbabwean dollars has led to a significant decline in trading volumes and revenues for brokerage firms.

Lloyd Mlotshwa, head of research at Harare-based brokerage IH Securities, highlighted that brokerages have experienced a substantial hit to earnings, with some seeing their revenues drop by at least 50%.

Stockbrokers in the capital, Harare, described the current market conditions as “a painful early winter,” marked by limited trading volumes and uncertainty. They anticipate broader ramifications across the stock market architecture, affecting not only stockbrokers but also custodians, government taxes, and the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange itself.

Enock Rukarwa, a research and investment consultant at FBC Securities, said stockbroking boutiques need to adapt their business models to mitigate the impact on commission income and pointed out that the majority of the economy still transacting in US dollars.

He suggested that stockbroking boutiques need to adapt their business models to mitigate the impact on commission income.

Imara Asset Management, Zimbabwe’s largest independent brokerage overseeing $100 million in assets, warned of further upheaval in the coming months as share prices adjusted to ZiG.

The company’s CEO and CIO, John Legat and Shelton Sibanda, criticized the decision to adopt ZiG instead of US dollars, considering that many listed businesses operate in USD.

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Naira

Dollar to Naira Black Market Today, April 23rd, 2024

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New Naira Notes

As of April 23rd, 2024, the exchange rate for the US dollar to the Nigerian Naira stands at 1 USD to 1,250 NGN in the black market, also referred to as the parallel market or Aboki fx.

For those engaging in currency transactions in the Lagos Parallel Market (Black Market), buyers purchase a dollar for N1,290 and sell it at N1,280 on Monday, April 22nd, 2024 based on information from Bureau De Change (BDC).

Meaning, the Naira exchange rate improved when compared to today’s rate below.

This black market rate signifies the value at which individuals can trade their dollars for Naira outside the official or regulated exchange channels.

Investors and participants closely monitor these parallel market rates for a more immediate reflection of currency dynamics.

How Much is Dollar to Naira Today in the Black Market?

Kindly be aware that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not acknowledge the existence of the parallel market, commonly referred to as the black market.

The CBN has advised individuals seeking to participate in Forex transactions to utilize official banking channels.

Black Market Dollar to Naira Exchange Rate

  • Buying Rate: N1,250
  • Selling Rate: N1,240

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