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South Korea Dumps Nigeria’s Oil for U.S.

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  • South Korea Dumps Nigeria’s Oil for U.S.

Nigeria may have lost its South Korean oil market to the United States (U.S.) as the Asian country buys its first crude oil from America. Refiners in South Korea, the world’s fifth crude oil importer, have reportedly joined India to diversify their crude sources in what potentially could impact on Nigeria’s spot crude export market.

South Korea’s largest refiner, SK Innovation, is the latest to have made its first purchase of U.S. crude after two of India’s state-run refiners, last week, placed order for over one million barrels for the first time.

The cheaper and attractive price offerings for U.S. crude grade West Texas Intermediate (WTI) following the output cuts by members of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and some non-OPEC producers since January has enabled the U.S. crude grade to find a non-traditional home in Asia.

Nigeria produces light sweet crude, a similar grade with the U.S. WTI that refiners in Asia are now rushing because of favourable price and shorter shipping distance. Nigeria has one of the world’s highest production cost per barrel of crude oil. This makes its crude’s price uncompetitive especially in low price regime as currently is.

At least three of South Korea’s four refiners import crude from Nigeria mostly through spot cargoes, Korean shipping data showed. But with Korea looking to add to its list of crude suppliers, Nigeria’s barrels heading to the Asian country may further shrink.

Head of Energy Desk, Ecobank, Mr. Dolapo Oni, said OPEC and non-OPEC producer agreement to cut output in order to shore up price has its own advantage and disadvantage,. According to him, when the price of crude goes up it makes production of shale oil and gas attractive. Therefore, to make shale production unprofitable oil price need to be low because the cost of production per barrel of crude from conventional hydrocarbon acreages is much lower than production from shale. It can be as much as 200-400 per cent higher, he added.

From 2014, the market has experienced a supply glut mostly occasioned by US supply from shale oil leading to an increase in global inventories. Between 2017 and 2021, tight crude oil supply from North America (U.S. & Canada) is expected to increase from 4.1million barrels/day to 4.8million barrels/day and is expected to be a major supplier at least till 2030. Lest we forget, the U.S. has amended its laws to allow for crude export. This singular move is of key significance in the supply dynamics.

Corroborating Oni, the Group Managing Director, Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) Dr. Maikanti Baru, said the production of oil from shale changed the supply dynamics. “From 2014, the market has experienced a supply glut mostly occasioned by US supply from shale oil leading to an increase in global inventories. Between 2017 and 2021, tight crude oil supply from North America (U.S. & Canada) is expected to increase from 4.1million barrels per day to 4.8million barrels per day and is expected to be a major supplier at least till 2030. Lest we forget, the U.S. has amended its laws to allow for crude export. This singular move is of key significance in the supply dynamics,” Baru said.

Production at shale fields is forecast to expand to 6.15 million barrels a day in September, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA). This week’s U.S. stockpile report may show that crude inventories declined for a seventh week, according to a Bloomberg survey

However, oil traded at a three-week low yesterday after a forecast on U.S. shale growth added to mounting worries that the rebalancing process is stalling.

“As much as oil inventories have been coming down in the U.S., which is something that is seasonally normal, the fact that U.S. shale production is very resilient and is again confirmed by this EIA Drilling Productivity Report, that is something that is weighing on the market’s mind,” said Harry Tchilinguirian, head of commodity markets strategy at BNP Paribas SA in London.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Analysts Forecast Rate Increase as Naira Depreciates Sharply

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As the Nigerian naira experiences a sharp depreciation against major currencies, financial analysts are predicting that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will opt for another interest rate hike to address the country’s economic challenges.

The recent slump in the naira, coupled with a 28-year high inflation rate, has raised concerns among economists, prompting expectations of further tightening measures.

Since mid-April, the naira has witnessed a significant decline, falling by 28% against the US dollar over the past four weeks.

This rapid depreciation has been exacerbated by President Bola Tinubu’s decision to relax foreign-exchange controls last June.

In response to the economic turmoil, the MPC raised interest rates by 6 percentage points in the first quarter, bringing the benchmark rate to 24.75%.

However, with inflation soaring to 33.7% last month—well above the central bank’s target range of 9%—analysts believe that additional rate hikes may be necessary to curb rising prices and stabilize the currency.

Giulia Pellegrin, a senior portfolio manager at Allianz Global Investors, highlighted the need for proactive measures, stating, “The committee will likely be watching recent currency volatility and may decide more action is needed.”

She emphasized the importance of tightening monetary policy to restore investor confidence and ensure price stability.

Yvonne Mhango, an economist at Bloomberg Africa, echoed similar sentiments, noting that the naira’s depreciation necessitates “additional and sizeable rate hikes.”

Mhango emphasized the significance of maintaining positive real interest rates to combat inflationary pressures effectively.

Investors are eagerly awaiting the MPC’s decision, with many expecting another interest rate increase at the upcoming meeting on May 21.

Ayodeji Dawodu, director of fixed income at BancTrust & Co., stressed the importance of transparency and intervention in the currency market to restore stability.

“Investors also want Cardoso to announce more liquidity-tightening measures and introduce greater transparency in the currency market,” Dawodu remarked.

Despite recent declines in liquid reserves, analysts remain hopeful that decisive action from the central bank will help alleviate concerns about the quality of reserves and bolster confidence in the economy.

As Nigeria navigates through turbulent economic waters, all eyes are on the MPC’s decision and its potential implications for the country’s financial landscape.

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Nigeria’s N3.3tn Power Sector Rescue Package Unveiled

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President Bola Tinubu has given the green light for a comprehensive N3.3 trillion rescue package.

This ambitious initiative seeks to tackle the country’s mounting power sector debts, which have long hindered the efficiency and reliability of electricity supply across the nation.

The unveiling of this rescue package represents a pivotal moment in Nigeria’s quest for a sustainable energy future. With power outages being a recurring nightmare for both businesses and households, the need for decisive action has never been more urgent.

At the heart of the rescue package are measures aimed at settling the staggering debts accumulated within the power sector. President Tinubu has approved a phased approach to debt repayment, encompassing cash injections and promissory notes.

This strategic allocation of funds aims to provide immediate relief to power-generating companies (Gencos) and gas suppliers, while also ensuring long-term financial stability within the sector.

Chief Adebayo Adelabu, the Minister of Power, revealed details of the rescue package at the 8th Africa Energy Marketplace held in Abuja.

Speaking at the event themed, “Towards Nigeria’s Sustainable Energy Future,” Adelabu emphasized the government’s commitment to eliminating bottlenecks and fostering policy coherence within the power sector.

One of the key highlights of the rescue package is the allocation of funds from the Gas Stabilisation Fund to settle outstanding debts owed to gas suppliers.

This critical step not only addresses the immediate liquidity concerns of gas companies but also paves the way for enhanced cooperation between gas suppliers and power generators.

Furthermore, the rescue package includes provisions for addressing the legacy debts owed to power-generating companies.

By utilizing future royalties and income streams from the gas sub-sector, the government aims to provide a sustainable solution that incentivizes investment in power generation capacity.

The announcement of the N3.3 trillion rescue package comes amidst ongoing efforts to revitalize Nigeria’s power sector.

Recent initiatives, including tariff adjustments and regulatory reforms, underscore the government’s determination to overcome longstanding challenges and enhance the sector’s effectiveness.

However, challenges persist, as highlighted by Barth Nnaji, a former Minister of Power, who emphasized the need for a robust transmission network to support increased power generation.

Nnaji’s advocacy for a super grid underscores the importance of infrastructure development in ensuring the reliability and stability of Nigeria’s power supply.

In light of these developments, stakeholders have welcomed the unveiling of the N3.3 trillion rescue package as a decisive step towards transforming Nigeria’s power sector.

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Nigeria’s Inflation Climbs to 28-Year High at 33.69% in April

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Nigeria's Inflation Rate - Investors King

Nigeria is grappling with soaring inflation as data from the statistics agency revealed that the country’s headline inflation surged to a new 28-year high in April.

The consumer price index, which measures the inflation rate, rose to 33.69% year-on-year, up from 33.20% in March.

This surge in inflation comes amid a series of economic challenges, including subsidy cuts on petrol and electricity and twice devaluing the local naira currency by the administration of President Bola Tinubu.

The sharp rise in inflation has been a pressing concern for policymakers, leading the central bank to take measures to address the growing price pressures.

The central bank has raised interest rates twice this year, including its largest hike in around 17 years, in an attempt to contain inflationary pressures.

Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria has indicated that interest rates will remain high for as long as necessary to bring down inflation.

The bank is set to hold another rate-setting meeting next week to review its policy stance.

A report by the National Bureau of Statistics highlighted that the food and non-alcoholic beverages category continued to be the biggest contributor to inflation in April.

Food inflation, which accounts for the bulk of the inflation basket, rose to 40.53% in annual terms, up from 40.01% in March.

In response to the economic challenges posed by soaring inflation, President Tinubu’s administration has announced a salary hike of up to 35% for civil servants to ease the pressure on government workers.

Also, to support vulnerable households, the government has restarted a direct cash transfer program and distributed at least 42,000 tons of grains such as corn and millet.

The rising inflation rate presents significant challenges for Nigeria’s economy, impacting the purchasing power of consumers and adding strains to household budgets.

As the government continues to grapple with inflationary pressures, policymakers are faced with the task of implementing measures to stabilize prices and mitigate the adverse effects on the economy and livelihoods of citizens.

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