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U.S. Inflation Remains Subdued as Core Index Lags Forecasts

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  • U.S. Inflation Remains Subdued as Core Index Lags Forecasts

A below-forecast rise in the U.S. cost of living in July adds to a string of disappointing readings, potentially putting the Federal Reserve’s inflation goal even further away, a Labor Department report showed Friday.

The U.S. inflation slowdown may be getting longer, even after most economists and Federal Reserve policy makers judged it to be transitory. A more sustained ebb in price pressures could make it tougher for the central bank to stay on course for one more interest-rate increase this year.

HIGHLIGHTS OF CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (JULY)

  • Consumer price index rose 0.1% m/m (est. 0.2%) after being unchanged the prior month; up 1.7% y/y (est. 1.8%)
  • Excluding food and energy, so-called core CPI rose 0.1% m/m (est. 0.2%); up 1.7% y/y (matching est.)
  • Price of lodging away from home fell by a record 4.2% m/m; new vehicle prices dropped 0.5%, most since 2009

The record drop in the lodging away from home category reflects a plunge in prices at hotels and motels, and follows a smaller decline of 1.9 percent in June. The continuing fall in vehicle prices also may reflect weakness in auto sales. Other categories showed increases including apparel, medical care and transportation services.

The figures follow data Thursday showing wholesale prices unexpectedly decreased 0.1 percent in July from the prior month, the first drop in nearly a year, reflecting widespread declines across groups such as chemical wholesalers, retail apparel and airline services.

The Fed targets 2 percent inflation based on a separate Commerce Department price gauge, which will next be updated on Aug. 31. New York Fed President William Dudley said Thursday that “it’s going to take some time” for inflation to rise to the central bank’s target even as he offered a generally positive outlook for the U.S. economy, job market and price pressures.

Economist’s View

“It is a weak reading,” said Ward McCarthy, chief financial economist at Jefferies LLC in New York, who correctly forecast a 0.1 percent rise each for the CPI and the core measure. Right now, a December interest-rate hike from the Fed “is almost like a coin toss.”

Other Details

  • Energy prices fell 0.1 percent from previous month, reflecting a 2.3 percent drop in natural gas; food costs rose 0.2 percent
  • The CPI for new and used vehicles each fell 0.5 percent; air fares rose 0.7 percent
  • Shelter costs rose 0.1 percent, with a 0.3 percent increase in owners-equivalent rent, one of the categories designed to track rental prices
  • Expenses for medical care rose 0.4 percent; these readings often vary from results for this category within the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation due to different methodologies
  • Hourly earnings adjusted for inflation rose 0.7 percent from July 2016, after a 0.9 percent gain, a separate report from the Labor Department showed
  • The CPI is the broadest of three price gauges from the Labor Department because it includes all goods and services. About 60 percent of the index covers the prices that consumers pay for services ranging from medical visits to airline fares, movie tickets and rents

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Crude Oil

NNPC and Newcross Set to Boost Awoba Unit Field Production to 12,000 bpd

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NNPC and Newcross Exploration and Production Ltd are working together to increase production at the Awoba Unit Field to 12,000 barrels per day (bpd) within the next 30 days.

This initiative, aimed at optimizing hydrocarbon asset production, follows the recent restart of operations at the Awoba field, which commenced this month after a hiatus.

The field, located in the mangrove swamp south of Port Harcourt, Rivers State, ceased production in 2021 due to logistical challenges and crude oil theft.

The joint venture between NNPC and Newcross is poised to bolster national revenue and meet OPEC production quotas, contributing significantly to Nigeria’s energy sector.

Mele Kyari, NNPC’s Group Chief Executive Officer, attributes this achievement to a conducive operating environment fostered by the administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

The endeavor underscores a collective effort involving stakeholders from various sectors, including staff, operators, host communities, and security agencies, aimed at revitalizing Nigeria’s oil and gas sector.

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Gold

Gold Prices Slide Below $2,300 as Investors Digest Fed’s Rate Outlook

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Amidst a backdrop of global economic shifts and geopolitical recalibration, gold prices dipped below the $2,300 price level.

The decline comes as investors carefully analyse signals from the Federal Reserve regarding its future interest rate policies.

After reaching record highs earlier this month, gold suffered its most daily decline in nearly two years, shedding 2.7% on Monday.

The recent retreat reflects a multifaceted landscape where concerns over escalating tensions in the Middle East have eased, coupled with indications that the Federal Reserve may maintain higher interest rates for a prolonged period.

Richard Grace, a senior currency analyst and international economist at ITC Markets, noted that tactical short-selling likely contributed to the decline, especially given the rapid surge in gold prices witnessed recently.

Despite this setback, bullion remains up approximately 15% since mid-February, supported by ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, central bank purchases, and robust demand from Chinese consumers.

The shift in focus among investors now turns toward forthcoming US economic data, including key inflation metrics favored by the Federal Reserve.

These data points are anticipated to provide further insights into the central bank’s monetary policy trajectory.

Over recent weeks, policymakers have adopted a more hawkish tone in response to consistently strong inflation reports, leading market participants to adjust their expectations regarding the timing of future interest rate adjustments.

As markets recalibrate their expectations for monetary policy, the prospect of a higher-for-longer interest rate environment poses challenges for gold, which traditionally does not offer interest-bearing returns.

Spot gold prices dropped by 1.2% to $2,298.67 an ounce, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index remaining relatively stable. Silver, palladium, and platinum also experienced declines following gold’s retreat.

The ongoing interplay between economic indicators, geopolitical developments, and central bank policies continues to shape the trajectory of precious metal markets.

While gold faces near-term headwinds, its status as a safe-haven asset and store of value ensures that it remains a focal point for investors navigating uncertain global dynamics.

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Crude Oil

Oil Prices Hold Firm Despite Middle East Tensions

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Despite ongoing tensions in the Middle East, oil prices remained resilient, holding steady above key levels on Tuesday.

Brent crude oil traded above $87 a barrel after a slight dip of 0.3% on the previous trading day, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) hovered around $82 a barrel.

The stability in oil prices comes amidst a backdrop of positive sentiment across global markets, with signs of strength in various sectors countering concerns about geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

One of the factors supporting oil prices is the weakening of the US dollar, which makes commodities priced in the currency more attractive to international investors.

Concurrently, equities experienced gains, contributing to the overall positive market sentiment.

However, geopolitical risks persist as Israel intensifies efforts to eliminate what it claims is the last stronghold of Hamas in Gaza and secure the release of remaining hostages.

These actions are expected to keep tensions elevated in the region, adding uncertainty to oil markets.

Despite the geopolitical tensions, options markets have shown a more optimistic outlook in recent days regarding the potential for a spike in oil prices. This suggests that market participants are cautiously optimistic about the resolution of conflicts in the region.

Despite the lingering risks, oil prices have remained below the $90 per barrel price level, a level that many analysts consider significant, particularly as the summer months approach, typically known as the peak demand season for oil.

While prices have experienced some volatility, they have yet to reach the $90 threshold, prompting expectations of further increases later in the year.

Jeff Currie, chief strategy officer of energy pathways at Carlyle Group, expressed confidence in the potential for oil prices to surpass $100 per barrel, citing tight market conditions indicated by timespreads.

However, he also noted the importance of monitoring OPEC’s response to rising prices, as the organization may adjust production levels to stabilize the market.

Overall, while geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to pose risks to oil markets, the resilience of oil prices amidst these challenges underscores the complex interplay of global factors influencing commodity markets.

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