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Nigeria, US, Libya’s Rising Oil Output Threaten Prices

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Petrol - Investors King
  • Nigeria, US, Libya’s Rising Oil Output Threaten Prices

The increase in the production of light sweet crude from Nigeria, United States and Libya has been said to be capable of contributing to a narrower price spread between light and medium crudes.

The US Energy Information Administration said in its Short-Term Energy Outlook that Nigerian production increased by six per cent to 1.66 million barrels per day in July, from 1.56 million bpd a month earlier, while Libyan crude output jumped by 19 per cent to 1.01 million bpd in July, from 850,000 bpd in June.

The US crude production increased to 9.43 million bpd, compared with 9.32 million bpd in June, the report said.

The EIA noted that crude oil prices were further supported as Saudi Arabia announced a cap on the country’s crude oil exports in August.

It, however, said it was unclear how much extra crude oil this cap would remove from the market given the country’s typical seasonal decline in crude oil exports because of an increase in crude oil use for power generation.

“However, Libya and Nigeria, two other OPEC members, continue to increase crude oil production, a contributing factor in keeping prices near $50 per barrel,” the IEA said.

The EIA said the voluntary production cuts by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries and non-OPEC countries resulted primarily in less medium, sour and heavy, sour crudes on the global market.

“As a result, over the past several months, the usual premium that light, sweet crudes command over medium and heavy crude oil has declined in many regions around the world,” it said.

According to the agency, trade press reports indicate that less crude oil is being exported from Saudi Arabia to Europe, which may be supporting prices of crudes like Urals, which are similar in quality to Saudi Arabian crude oil.

It said, “At the same time, higher crude oil production in Libya, Nigeria, and the United States is adding additional light, sweet crude oil into the market and could be contributing to a narrower price spread between light and medium crude oils.”

Nigeria’s average oil production including condensates, increased marginally to 2.06 million bpd in July, according to the petroleum ministry, Platts reported on Monday.

The ministry said the country’s crude output stood at 2.06 million bpd in July, up from 2.05 million bpd in June, and a sharp increase over the 1.6 million bpd output a year ago when production facilities were hit by attacks from the Niger Delta militants.

Nigerian oil output has climbed steadily following a respite in activity by militants demanding control of the region’s oil resources.

Loading of the popular export grade Forcados has resumed at its terminal in the Niger Delta after shutting for several months over the past year following attacks in February and November 2016.

The EIA expects US production to rise over the next two years and cross the 10 million bpd threshold in November 2018.

It sees output averaging 9.35 million bpd in 2017, up by 20,000 bpd from last month’s outlook, and 9.91 million bpd in 2018, up by 10,000 bpd from last month.

“The US oil production growth could slow as some US energy companies plan less investment spending for the rest of this year and the number of drilling rigs has recently increased at a slower clip,” the EIA Acting Administrator, Howard Gruenspecht, said in a statement.

The OPEC crude production held steady in July at an average 32.93 million bpd, compared with 32.61 million bpd in June, despite the sharp increases in Libya and Nigeria.

Saudi Arabia produced 10.2 million bpd in July, steady from 10.15 million bpd a month earlier.

The agency expects OPEC output to average 32.53 million bpd in 2017 and 32.96 million bpd in 2018.

The EIA expects Brent crude prices to average $50.71 per barrel in 2017 and $51.58 in 2018 and WTI prices to average $48.88 in 2017 and $49.58 in 2018 – steady from the agency’s June outlook.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

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Gas-Pipeline

The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

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IMF Report: Nigeria’s Inflation to Dip to 26.3% in 2024, Growth Expected at 3.3%

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IMF global - Investors King

Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2024 appears cautiously optimistic with projections indicating a potential decrease in the country’s inflation rate alongside moderate economic growth.

The IMF’s revised Global Economic Outlook for 2024 highlights key forecasts for Nigeria’s economic landscape and gave insights into both inflationary trends and GDP expansion.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 26.3% by the end of 2024.

This projection aligns with expectations of a gradual easing of inflationary pressures within the country, although challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate fluctuations continue to pose significant hurdles to price stability.

In tandem with the inflation forecast, the IMF also predicts a modest economic growth rate of 3.3% for Nigeria in 2024.

This growth projection reflects a cautious optimism regarding the country’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of various internal and external challenges.

Despite the ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and address macroeconomic imbalances, the IMF underscores the need for continued policy reforms and prudent fiscal management to sustain growth momentum.

The IMF report provides valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic trajectory, offering policymakers, investors, and stakeholders a comprehensive understanding of the country’s macroeconomic dynamics.

While the projected decline in inflation and modest growth outlook offer reasons for cautious optimism, it remains essential for Nigerian authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing underlying structural vulnerabilities and promoting inclusive economic development.

As the country navigates through a challenging economic landscape, concerted efforts towards policy coordination, investment promotion, and structural reforms will be crucial in unlocking Nigeria’s full growth potential and fostering long-term prosperity.

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South Africa’s March Inflation Hits Two-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

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South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s inflation rate declined to a two-month low, according to data released by Statistics South Africa.

Consumer prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in February. While this decline may initially suggest a positive trend, analysts caution against premature optimism due to various economic factors at play.

The weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, coupled with drought conditions affecting staple crops like white corn and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices, poses significant challenges.

These factors are expected to keep inflation relatively high and stubborn in the coming months, making policymakers hesitant to adjust borrowing costs.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, reiterated the bank’s cautious stance on inflation pressures.

Despite the recent easing, inflation has consistently remained above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3-6% since May 2021. Consequently, the bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 8.25% for nearly a year, aiming to anchor inflation expectations.

While some traders speculate on potential interest rate hikes, forward-rate agreements indicate a low likelihood of such a move at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

The yield on 10-year bonds also saw a marginal decline following the release of the inflation data.

March’s inflation decline was mainly attributed to lower prices in miscellaneous goods and services, education, health, and housing and utilities.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained relatively steady at 4.9%.

Overall, South Africa’s inflation trajectory underscores the delicate balance between economic recovery and inflation containment amid ongoing global uncertainties.

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