Economy

Inflation Predicted to Rise in July to 16.26%

Published

7 years ago

August 9, 2017

Inflation Predicted to Rise Marginally in July to 16.26%

The Financial Derivatives Company has predicted that year-on-year headline inflation will increase by 0.16 per cent, from the 16.10 per cent it was in June, to 16.26 per cent in July, leading to a reversal of a positive trend of the last five months.

According to the Lagos-based research and financial advisory firm, the influence of base year effects on headline inflation has weakened immensely.

“In our estimates, month-on-month inflation is expected to taper significantly to 1.37 per cent (17.74% annualised) from 1.6 per cent (20.98% annualized) in June. This reduction in the monthly inflation is a manifestation of further exchange rate appreciation as the naira has been relatively stable in the forex market.

“The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), a proxy for manufacturing activity, improved further to 54.1 in July, signaling an expansion in manufacturing activities though supply-side constraints persist. Manufacturers are building up inventory levels on the perceived idea that the economy is improving. Unfortunately this is occurring in an environment with naira illiquidity, large carrying costs and dwindling disposable income. The rains and flood in July disrupted movement and reduced traffic to supermarkets. Power supply dropped below 3000mW/hr in July,” FDC stated.

They noted the general moderation in food prices even though there were a few outliers such as beans and rice. Furthermore, they opined that the decline in power supply from the grid during the period resulted in higher electricity costs, while the price of diesel, which is generally used to power generators and trucks increased by 6.25 per cent to N170 per litre.

“Consumer prices are to be directly affected by the beginning of the harvest season. Competitive pressures amongst manufacturers and retailers have intensified and are anticipated to fuel further price decline of some manufactured goods.

“There are some other factors that have an impact on prices, which include the trend of increased capital importation by foreign investors. These investors are buying naira denominated assets and their foreign exchange is helping further injections by the CBN. However, the country is prone to a stock market and forexmarket shock as many analysts believe that gains in both markets are bubbles.

“In the event that these two outcomes materialise, the economy might stumble and consumer prices are likely to shoot up on output constraints. If the inflation numbers change direction as anticipated, the hawks at the Monetary Policy Committee will again be emboldened to maintain the current stance. We are thus likely to see the status quo maintained,” the FDC added.

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Samed Olukoya

Is the CEO and Founder of Investors King Limited. He is a seasoned foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Business Insider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and other prominent platforms. With over two decades of experience in global financial markets, Olukoya is well-recognized in the industry.

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Economy

BOI Outlines Path to Achieving $1 Trillion Nigerian Economy by 2026

Published

1 day ago

September 30, 2024

Bassey Marshall

The Bank of Industry (BOI) has outlined steps Nigeria must take to realize its ambition of achieving a $1 trillion economy by 2026.

This was disclosed by the bank’s Divisional Head of Services, Isa Omagu, on Saturday at the 2024 annual conference of the Finance Correspondents Association of Nigeria in Lagos.

At the conference, themed Nigeria’s Journey Towards a $1 Trillion Economy: Impact of Banks’ Re-capitalisation, Opportunities for Fintechs and the Real Sector, Omagu said it is important Nigeria prioritize enhancing its production capacity.

“The economy relies on both the monetary and fiscal sides; we need both to work together. While the monetary side is trying to stabilize prices, which is its primary mandate, we also need the fiscal side, particularly governance, to come in,” Omagu said.

“We are not producing enough, and we cannot continue consuming imported goods while expecting the economy to be robust.”

He further called for continued investment in agriculture, infrastructure, and services, stating that these sectors will drive production.

According to Omagu, this approach will reduce import dependency and ease the pressure on foreign exchange.

“If we continue to invest in agriculture, infrastructure, and services to a reasonable extent, this will drive production, reduce imports, and alleviate the pressure on our forex,” he noted.

Omagu stressed that boosting production capacity is essential for achieving a $1 trillion economy.

“There’s no way to achieve a $1 trillion economy without focusing on boosting our production capacity,” he said.

He also highlighted several funding initiatives aimed at supporting small and medium enterprises (SMEs) and large enterprises.

“There is a N200 billion integration fund and a N50 billion grant for SMEs in rural areas. So far, we have disbursed up to 98 percent of the money, with N50,000 allocated per beneficiary. Additionally, there’s N5 billion for SMEs, available as a long-term loan at a single-digit interest rate, designed to help SMEs access crucial funding for their businesses,” he explained.

Omagu also revealed a fund for one million start-ups and large enterprises involved in production, which he said will promote job creation and increase exports.

“There is a fund for one million SMEs and another for large enterprises in manufacturing. These funds are offered at a single-digit interest rate, repayable over seven years, enabling businesses to acquire the necessary equipment for production.”

He concluded by expressing optimism that these initiatives would reduce import dependency, grow employment, and help Nigeria produce for export, thereby increasing non-oil foreign exchange inflows into the country.

Economy

Piracy and Illegal Fishing Threaten Nigeria’s $2.5tn Ocean Economy, Maritime Experts Warn

Published

1 day ago

September 30, 2024

Bassey Marshall

Maritime stakeholders have identified piracy, illegal fishing, interstate disputes, and transnational crime as some of the factors hindering the country from achieving the $2.5tn ocean economy.

Speaking at the 2024 International Maritime Organisation World Maritime Day held in Lagos State, the Chairman of the Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf, Prof Larry Awosika, echoed the need for the Nigerian government to tackle these issues.

The stakeholders also outlined other challenges that demand urgent attention, particularly the smuggling of arms and narcotics.

Awosika further warned that failure to tackle these issues, which he described as security threats, could affect investment in marine exploration and tourism.

According to him, ensuring safe, secure, energy-efficient, and low-carbon maritime transport in the country is essential for the sustainable exploitation of marine resources in the country.

“Unsustainable maritime practices, including security and environmental degradation, pose significant threats to marine-based industries,” he stated.

He urged the Federal Government to prioritise safety at sea through new investments in infrastructure, science, data, and technology.

Also speaking at the event, the Minister of Marine and Blue Economy, Adegboyega Oyetola, represented by the Permanent Secretary of the ministry, Olufemi Oloruntola, called on the Federal Government to invest in upgrading facilities and building capacity to keep Nigeria competitive in global seaborne trade.

He emphasised the importance of the support of the private sector which according to him, will help elevate the country’s maritime industry.

“To ensure both shipping safety and operational efficiency, the government must invest in upgrading facilities and building capacity to keep Nigeria competitive in global seaborne trade,” Oyetola stated.

“Achieving world-class standards would require continued support from the private sector, whose collaboration is crucial in providing the resources and state-of-the-art facilities necessary to elevate Nigeria’s maritime industry,” the minister said.

Economy

FG Moves to Reduce Transportation Fares by 40%, Says CNG is Great Alternative to Petrol Crisis

Published

4 days ago

September 28, 2024

Ugwoke Ogbodo

If commercial transporters across Nigeria can buy into the Compressed Natural Gas, the Federal Government has said the hike in transportation fares will be drastically reduced.

According to the Programme Director of the Presidential Compressed Natural Gas Initiative, Michael Oluwagbemi, the Federal Government hopes there will be over 40 per cent reduction in transportation fares through adopting CNG for commercial vehicles.

Speaking during a Memorandum of Understanding signing ceremony held in Abuja on Friday, where key stakeholders, including the National Union of Road Transport Workers from Itakpe, Adavi and Ajaokuta train station units gathered to formalise the agreement, Oluwagbemi emphasised the government’s commitment to affordable transportation amidst rising fuel costs.

Explaining how President Bola Tinubu led administration plans to tackle hike in transportation fare, Oluwagbemi said the Federal Government is working hard to bring transportation prices down, especially during these challenging times.

Describing CNG introduced by the president as a great alternative to the petrol problem, he said under the new plan, fares for six eight-passenger ger vehicles will be slashed from N12,000 to N7,,000 while fares for four-passenger ger vehicles will drop from N13,000 to N8,000 from Abuja to Ajaokuta train station.

According to him, the trip from Itakpe Station to Warri costs N5,000, showcasing the benefits of the Federal Government’s infrastructure investments over the past five years.

He said the progress represents a significant savings of over 40%, adding that passengers travelling from Abuja to Ajaokuta Station will greatly benefit from Tinubu’s intervention.

The Director of the CNG initiative noted that it is designed to encourage the conversion of existing commercial vehicles to CNG, which is sold at a discount of up to 60 per cent compared to petrol prices.

Oluwagbemi stated that the converted vehicles will operate at a significant discount, remain flexible, and run cleaner, cheaper, safer, and more reliably.

A total of ten CNG fuel conversion centres have already been established across Abuja, Itakpe, and Ajaokuta, including six NNPC stations and two NIPCO stations.

More stations are in the pipeline, with collaborations with Bovas to introduce additional facilities in Abuja.

The timeline for implementation is ambitious, with inspections of vehicles expected to conclude next week and conversions commencing shortly thereafter.

At the event, the Secretary of the NURTW’s Ajaokuta unit, Adeyemo Teslim, expressed gratitude for the collaboration.

Teslim revealed that joining forces will yield multifaceted benefits, which Nigerian transporters are eager to support.

The transporter highlighted the need for expanded coverage to enhance accessibility across various regions, adding that the agreement also includes an enforcement mechanism to ensure compliance with the new fare structure.