Forex

Investors Jump Back Into the Euro as Going Short Proves ‘Lethal’

Published

7 years ago

August 8, 2017

Investors Jump Back Into the Euro as Going Short Proves ‘Lethal’

Hedge funds. Asset managers. Central banks. These are just some of the players in the $5.1 trillion-a-day currency market who are buying the euro after shunning it over the past three years.

The shared currency has snapped its losing streak to become the best performer among Group-of-10 peers in 2017. After plunging to a 14-year low in January, the currency has staged a stunning comeback, rising to $1.1910 on Aug. 2, a level not seen since January 2015.

“To be short euros here is absolutely lethal,” said Ulf Lindahl, chief executive officer of A.G. Bisset Associates, who manages about $1 billion from Norwalk, Connecticut. He expects the currency to rise to $1.30 by the end of the year, if not sooner. Even after its 3.6 percent rally in July, investors and analysts are predicting further gains. So who’s buying euros, and why?

Hedge Funds

Hedge funds initially missed out on the euro rally by holding net-bearish bets until May before jumping in, according to data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Since then, speculators have piled headlong into bullish bets, building up the biggest net-long position in six years.

Fast-money traders who use momentum and trend-following strategies were well positioned for the rally, said James Kwok, London-based head of currency management at Amundi SA, which manages about 1.3 trillion euros ($1.5 trillion).

The “euro has been suffering for quite a few years,” Kwok said. “The political risk has diminished a lot and the economic momentum is getting better, and so now is the time for the euro to get back from the undervaluation level.”

U.S. Investors

U.S. investors will “increasingly look overseas for returns,” spurring flows into euro-denominated investments, said Lee Ferridge, head of macro strategy for North America at State Street Global Markets in Boston. They’ll probably do so without hedging against a weaker dollar, which would boost profits earned abroad, he said.

“The biggest potential driver of equity inflows into Europe would be U.S. investors,” which would tend to support the euro, said Alessio de Longis, a New York-based money manager in OppenheimerFunds Inc.’s global multi-asset group. That’s because dollar-based investors would have to buy euros in order to settle stock trades in the common currency, he said.

Euro three-month risk reversals, a barometer of medium-term directional bias, remain staunchly positive, with euro calls at premium levels last seen in 2009.

European Investors

Rising confidence in the European economy recovery gives investors there a good reason to buy assets closer to home, bolstering the euro, State Street’s Ferridge said.

The euro has shaken off its status as a second fiddle as European growth and inflation recovered, while political risks subsided after the election of French President Emmanuel Macron, spurring bets that the European Central Bank will pare stimulus.

Local investments allow traders to sidestep currency risk from overseas bets, said Amundi’s Kwok. He sees the euro rising to a range of $1.20 to $1.25 for the rest of the year and is keeping a close eye on whether Macron can implement economic reforms.

At the same time, European corporations that earn revenue in U.S. dollars will look to hedge against any gains in the euro, said Lindahl at A.G. Bisset.

Central Banks

Reserve managers could be another key buyer of euros in the months ahead, according to Kwok and State Street’s Ferridge. Central banks have boosted the euro’s share of their holdings in recent quarters after reducing holdings in 2014 and 2015 when concerns about Greek debt and political turmoil diminished its appeal as a reserve currency.

While the outlook for Europe has stabilized, U.S. political drama has escalated. Against this backdrop, reserve managers may opt to rebuild their euro holdings, which would cause yet more strength for the currency.

“The whole European project looks to be on stronger footing politically,” Ferridge said. In the U.S., “we have an administration that’s pretty inexperienced politically, and I think the changes that we’ve seen in the administration, the uncertainty, it’s not going to sit will with reserve managers. The euro would be a beneficiary from that.”

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Samed Olukoya

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Naira

Dollar to Naira Black Market Today, April 19th, 2024

As of April 19th, 2024, the exchange rate for the US dollar to the Nigerian Naira stands at 1 USD to 1,100 NGN in the black market, also referred to as the parallel market or Aboki fx.

Published

1 day ago

April 19, 2024

Samed Olukoya

As of April 19th, 2024, the exchange rate for the US dollar to the Nigerian Naira stands at 1 USD to 1,100 NGN in the black market, also referred to as the parallel market or Aboki fx.

For those engaging in currency transactions in the Lagos Parallel Market (Black Market), buyers purchase a dollar for N1,020 and sell it at N1,010 on Thursday, April 18th, 2024 based on information from Bureau De Change (BDC).

Meaning, the Naira exchange rate declined slightly when compared to today’s rate below.

This black market rate signifies the value at which individuals can trade their dollars for Naira outside the official or regulated exchange channels.

Investors and participants closely monitor these parallel market rates for a more immediate reflection of currency dynamics.

How Much is Dollar to Naira Today in the Black Market?

Kindly be aware that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not acknowledge the existence of the parallel market, commonly referred to as the black market.

The CBN has advised individuals seeking to participate in Forex transactions to utilize official banking channels.

Black Market Dollar to Naira Exchange Rate

Buying Rate: N1,100
Selling Rate: N1,090

Naira

Naira’s Recent Gain Reflects Policy Direction, Says CBN Chief Olayemi Cardoso

Published

2 days ago

April 18, 2024

Samed Olukoya

Olayemi Cardoso, Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), has explained that the recent surge in the Naira is a testament to the positive direction of government policies rather than active intervention to defend the currency’s value.

Addressing attendees at the spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank in Washington, Governor Cardoso underscored that the CBN’s intention is not to artificially prop up the Naira.

He clarified that the fluctuations observed in the country’s foreign exchange reserves were not aimed at defending the currency but rather aligning with broader economic goals.

Over the past month, the Naira has experienced a notable uptick in value against the dollar, signaling a reversal from previous declines. Data from Bloomberg reveals a 6.4% decrease in liquid reserves since March 18, coinciding with the Naira’s rebound.

Despite this decline, Cardoso pointed out that around $600 million had flowed into the reserves in the past two days, reflecting confidence in the Nigerian market.

Governor Cardoso articulated the CBN’s vision of a market-driven exchange rate system, emphasizing the importance of allowing market forces to determine exchange rates through willing buyers and sellers.

He expressed optimism about a future where the central bank’s intervention in the foreign exchange market would be minimal, except in extraordinary circumstances.

The recent resilience of the Naira follows a period of volatility earlier in the year, marked by a substantial devaluation in January. Since then, the CBN has implemented measures to stabilize the currency, including monetary tightening and initiatives to enhance dollar liquidity.

Cardoso highlighted the transformation in market sentiment, noting that investors now perceive Nigeria’s central bank as committed to stabilizing inflation and fostering economic stability.

As Nigeria continues its journey toward economic recovery and stability, Cardoso’s remarks provide insight into the central bank’s strategy and its impact on the country’s currency dynamics.

Naira

Dollar to Naira Black Market Today, April 18th, 2024

As of April 18th, 2024, the exchange rate for the US dollar to the Nigerian Naira stands at 1 USD to 1,020 NGN in the black market, also referred to as the parallel market or Aboki fx.

Published

2 days ago

April 18, 2024

Samed Olukoya

As of April 18th, 2024, the exchange rate for the US dollar to the Nigerian Naira stands at 1 USD to 1,020 NGN in the black market, also referred to as the parallel market or Aboki fx.

For those engaging in currency transactions in the Lagos Parallel Market (Black Market), buyers purchase a dollar for N1,050 and sell it at N1,040 on Wednesday, April 17th, 2024 based on information from Bureau De Change (BDC).

Meaning, the Naira exchange rate improved when compared to today’s rate below.

This black market rate signifies the value at which individuals can trade their dollars for Naira outside the official or regulated exchange channels.

Investors and participants closely monitor these parallel market rates for a more immediate reflection of currency dynamics.

How Much is Dollar to Naira Today in the Black Market?

Kindly be aware that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not acknowledge the existence of the parallel market, commonly referred to as the black market.

The CBN has advised individuals seeking to participate in Forex transactions to utilize official banking channels.