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Venezuela’s chaos Can Spark Oil Price Increase

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  • Venezuela’s chaos Can Spark Oil Price Increase

Deepening turmoil in Venezuela could fuel a rise in oil prices, a feat the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has been striving to achieve through oil production cuts.

According to MarketWatch report, the South American nation, home to the world’s largest oil reserves, voted to give President Nicolás Maduro’s government powers to redraft the constitution, sparking clashes between protesters and state security forces. The opposition charges the vote could mark the end of democracy in Venezuela.

What the chaos portends for the oil industry, the report said: “The “possibility of chaos” in the country is the “only true element that would change the dynamic for crude,” Tom Kloza, global head of energy analysis at Oil Price Information Service, said.

“If “Vendemonium,” as he dubbed it, comes to pass, it could lift West Texas Intermediate crude-oil prices up from their current trading range of roughly $42 to $53 a barrel, said Kloza.

WTI crude, the U.S. benchmark, traded just below $50 a barrel last week, contributing to a 8.7 per cent weekly gain fueled in part by data showing a fourth-straight weekly decline in U.S. crude inventories, as well as pledges by some OPEC members to curb exports.

But WTI crude and Brent, the global benchmark, still trade about eight per cent lower year to date, even as a production-cut agreement by OPEC members and other major non-cartel nations such as Russia, that began at the start of the year, has seen historically high compliance and has been extended through March of next year.

“For oil, there is “ongoing concern about stability as the opposition gains strength and the chance that the U.S. will ratchet up pressure by halting imports,” James Williams, energy economist at WTRG Economics told MarketWatch. Venezuela is among the top suppliers of crude to the U.S., though its production has declined since last year on the heels of civil unrest.

“Venezuela’s oil output has dropped over the last year. A long strike by Venezuelan national oil firm’s workers was to blame for the huge drop in 2003. The chaos intensified last week with the U.S. State Department ordering family members of U.S. embassy employees in Caracas to leave the country.

“If we are removing diplomats, it is certainly an indicator of the intent to embargo oil from Venezuela,” said Williams. The U.S. had placed sanctions last week on 13 high-ranking Venezuelan officials for alleged corruption, among other offences, according to The Wall Street Journal.

“If Maduro installs puppeteers who more or less make up new constitutional rules, it really puts an already beleaguered (U.S. President Donald Trump) administration in a tough spot,” said Kloza.

Still, if the Trump administration “tries to put financial handcuffs” on Venezuela’s state-owned Petróleos de Venezuela, SA, (PdVSA), “it might provide the catalyst for the oil market and for consumer gasoline prices to rise appreciably,” Kloza said.

And the impact could be far reaching, with “financial handcuffs or penalties” potentially signaling “incredible turbulence for Citgo,” he said.

Citgo Petroleum Corporation, the Venezuela-owned American refiner, employs thousands of U.S. citizens and is “instrumental in ensuring adequate supply of gasoline, diesel fuel and jet fuel,” said Kloza.

In Russia, integrated oil firm Rosneft, which is majority owned by the country’s government,” might ultimately gain a large ownership stake in Citgo should its parent company and country default,” he said.

Rosneft received 49.9 per cent of the equity in PdVSA unit Citgo late last year as collateral for a $1.5 billion loan to PdVSA. Reuters recently reported that Rosneft is in talks with PdVSA for a fuel-supply deal and stakes in Venezuela-based oil and natural-gas fields.

For now, traders can just “hope that Trump only target individuals, not oil” when it comes to sanctions, said Williams.He also warned that the market could see a reaction from the U.S. that is “more complex than a simple halt in imports.

Meanwhile, Kloza said that if Venezuelan crude continues to flow, there is “limited upside” for the oil market “despite the large inventory draws that have happened and will continue to happen for some time.”

“Without ‘Vendemonium,’ we’re destined to remain in a low-price oil environment into 2018 or later,” said Kloza.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Crude Oil

IOCs Stick to Dollar Dominance in Crude Oil Transactions with Modular Refineries

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Crude Oil - Investors King

International Oil Companies (IOCs) are standing firm on their stance regarding the currency denomination for crude oil transactions with modular refineries.

Despite earlier indications suggesting a potential shift towards naira payments, IOCs have asserted their preference for dollar dominance in these transactions.

The decision, communicated during a meeting involving indigenous modular refineries and crude oil producers, shows the complex dynamics shaping Nigeria’s energy landscape.

While the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) had previously hinted at the possibility of allowing indigenous refineries to purchase crude oil in either naira or dollars, IOCs have maintained a firm stance favoring the latter.

Under this framework, modular refineries would be required to pay 80% of the crude oil purchase amount in US dollars, with the remaining 20% to be settled in naira.

This arrangement, although subject to ongoing discussions, signals a significant departure from initial expectations of a more balanced currency allocation.

Representatives from the Crude Oil Refinery Owners Association of Nigeria (CORAN) said the decision was not unilaterally imposed but rather reached through deliberations with relevant stakeholders, including the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).

While there were initial hopes of broader flexibility in currency options, the dominant position of IOCs has steered discussions towards a more dollar-centric model.

Despite reservations expressed by some participants, including modular refinery operators, the consensus appears to lean towards accommodating the preferences of major crude oil suppliers.

The development underscores the intricate negotiations and power dynamics shaping Nigeria’s energy sector, with implications for both domestic and international stakeholders.

As discussions continue, attention remains focused on how this decision will impact the operations and financial viability of modular refineries in Nigeria’s evolving oil landscape.

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Energy

Nigeria’s Dangote Refinery Overtakes European Giants in Capacity, Bloomberg Reports

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Aliko Dangote - Investors King

The Dangote Refinery has surpassed some of Europe’s largest refineries in terms of capacity, according to a recent report by Bloomberg.

The $20 billion Dangote refinery, located in Lagos, boasts a refining capacity of 650,000 barrels of petroleum products per day, positioning it as a formidable player in the global refining industry.

Bloomberg’s data highlighted that the Dangote refinery’s capacity exceeds that of Shell’s Pernis refinery in the Netherlands by over 246,000 barrels per day. Making Dangote’s facility a significant contender in the refining industry.

The report also underscored the scale of Dangote’s refinery compared to other prominent European refineries.

For instance, the TotalEnergies Antwerp refining facility in Belgium can refine 338,000 barrels per day, while the GOI Energy ISAB refinery in Italy was built with a refining capacity of 360,000 barrels per day.

Describing the Dangote refinery as a ‘game changer,’ Bloomberg emphasized its strategic advantage of leveraging cheaper U.S. oil imports for a substantial portion of its feedstock.

Analysts anticipate that the refinery’s operations will have a transformative impact on Nigeria’s fuel market and the broader region.

The refinery has already commenced shipping products in recent weeks while preparing to ramp up petrol output.

Analysts predict that Dangote’s refinery will influence Atlantic Basin gasoline markets and significantly alter the dynamics of the petroleum trade in West Africa.

Reuters recently reported that the Dangote refinery has the potential to disrupt the decades-long petrol trade from Europe to Africa, worth an estimated $17 billion annually.

With a configured capacity to produce up to 53 million liters of petrol per day, the refinery is poised to meet a significant portion of Nigeria’s fuel demand and reduce the country’s dependence on imported petroleum products.

Aliko Dangote, Africa’s richest man and the visionary behind the refinery, has demonstrated his commitment to revolutionizing Nigeria’s energy landscape. As the Dangote refinery continues to scale up its operations, it is poised to not only bolster Nigeria’s energy security but also emerge as a key player in the global refining industry.

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Crude Oil

Brent Crude Hits $88.42, WTI Climbs to $83.36 on Dollar Index Dip

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Brent crude oil - Investors King

Oil prices surged as Brent crude oil appreciated to $88.42 a barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed to $83.36 a barrel.

The uptick in prices comes as the U.S. dollar index dipped to its lowest level in over a week, prompting investors to shift their focus from geopolitical tensions to global economic conditions.

The weakening of the U.S. dollar, a key factor influencing oil prices, provided a boost to dollar-denominated commodities like oil. As the dollar index fell, demand for oil from investors holding other currencies increased, leading to the rise in prices.

Investors also found support in euro zone data indicating a robust expansion in business activity, with April witnessing the fastest pace of growth in nearly a year.

Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, noted that the market had been under pressure due to sluggish growth in the euro zone, making any signs of improvement supportive for oil prices.

Market participants are increasingly looking beyond geopolitical tensions and focusing on economic indicators and supply-and-demand dynamics.

Despite initial concerns regarding tensions between Israel and Iran and uncertainties surrounding China’s economic performance, the market sentiment remained optimistic, buoyed by expectations of steady oil demand.

Analysts anticipate the release of key economic data later in the week, including U.S. first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) figures and March’s personal consumption expenditures, which serve as the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge.

These data points are expected to provide further insights into the health of the economy and potentially impact oil prices.

Also, anticipation builds around the release of U.S. crude oil inventory data by the Energy Information Administration, scheduled for Wednesday.

Preliminary reports suggest an increase in crude oil inventories alongside a decrease in refined product stockpiles, reflecting ongoing dynamics in the oil market.

As oil prices continue their upward trajectory, investors remain vigilant, monitoring economic indicators and geopolitical developments for further cues on the future direction of the market.

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