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Oil Search: Nigeria’s Inland Basins Face Uncertain Future

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  • Oil Search: Nigeria’s Inland Basins Face Uncertain Future

The recent ambush on oil exploration team in the North-East Nigeria by Boko Haram has put a damper on the nation’s drive to tap its highly underexplored inland basins, industry experts have said.

Last week, the Frontier Exploration Services/Surface Geochemistry Sampling team comprising the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation, consultants from the University of Maiduguri, consultants attached to the Integrated Data Services Limited, a subsidiary of the NNPC and civilian escort team, was attacked by the terrorist group.

The attack, which led to the killing of at least 48 people, came one year after President Muhammadu Buhari directed the nnpc to resume exploration activities in the inland basins, especially the Chad Basin and the Kolmani River in the Benue Trough.

The inland basins of Nigeria comprise the Lower Benue Trough (Anambra basin), the middle Benue trough, upper Benue trough, the south eastern sector of the Chad basin, the Mid-Niger (Bida) basin, and the Sokoto basin.

Following the attack, the NNPC suspended oil exploration in the Lake Chad Basin, which is situated in part of Borno State.

An energy expert and Technical Director, Drilling Services at Template Design Limited, Mr. Bala Zakka, said, “It came as a big shock and a very big disappointment. It is a big blow to the military, the political governance and to the Nigerian oil industry. It has further threatened anything that has to do with oil activities in Nigeria.

“Before now, we were seeing threats to investments as far as Niger Delta is concerned. But it is very clear now that even if the quantity discovered in other potential basins, like the Chad Basin, is more than the quantity in the Niger Delta, the threats and the safety concerns in that area are too high and risky to any oil and gas operations in the near future.”

The Chairman, National PIB Committee, Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria and Nigeria Union of Petroleum and Natural Gas Workers, Mr. Chika Onuegbu, said, “When we heard about the story, we thought it was kidnap for ransom. But we were surprised to learn the people were killed.

“It is really a rude shock and, honestly speaking, the government has to do something about the level of killings going on in the country. It is going to affect the oil industry; first is that workers will not be willing to go to that part of the country for any oil and gas activities, especially exploration.”

The Chairman, Society of Petroleum Engineers, Nigeria Council, Dr. Saka Matemilola, who commiserated with the families of the bereaved, said the exploratory activities in that part of the country would have to be put on hold until security could be guaranteed.

He said the incident would significantly slow down the country’s efforts to expand the frontiers of its basins where oil had been found.

The immediate President, Nigerian Association of Petroleum Explorationists, Mr. Nosa Omorodion, expressed sadness over the incident, saying the issue of security needed to be adequately addressed in the country.

“The nation thought it was ready and that adequate security measures had been taken. Now, there is this setback; so we need to learn from it. What has happened is very unfortunate,” he added.

The Minister of State for Petroleum Resources, Dr. Ibe Kachikwu, said last week that the exploration activity in the Lake Chad basin had to be put on hold until the military could give the corporation sufficient clearance to resume oil search in the region.

Providing an explanation on how the Tuesday attack happened, he stated that the NNPC Frontier Exploration Services and Surface Geochemistry Sampling crew comprising three consultants attached to the FES and the Integrated Data Services Limited, nine external consultants from the University of Maiduguri, military personnel and members of the Civilian Joint Task Force were ambushed by Boko Haram.

He said the team was returning to Maiduguri after conducting a survey mapping/geological study of parts of the Lake Chad Basin, in preparation for re-entry for seismic activities.

The oil found in commercial quantity in neighbouring Chad Republic had encouraged the NNPC, on the orders of President Muhammadu Buhari, to intensify and focus its exploratory work in the inland basin on the Chad Basin and Benue Trough areas.

In November 2016, the corporation resumed exploration activities in Gubio, Magumeri, Monguno, Kukawa, Abadam, Guzamala and Mobar, after getting security advice from the military.

Is the CEO and Founder of Investors King Limited. He is a seasoned foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Business Insider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and other prominent platforms. With over two decades of experience in global financial markets, Olukoya is well-recognized in the industry.

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Economy

FG to Hike VAT on Luxury Goods by 15%, Exempts Essentials for Vulnerable Nigerians

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Value added tax - Investors King

Nigeria’s Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr. Wale Edun, has announced plans by the Federal Government to raise the Value Added Tax (VAT) on luxury goods by 15% despite the ongoing economic challenges.

Minister Edun made this known in Washington DC, during a meeting with investors as part of the ongoing IMF/ World Bank Annual Forum.

While essential goods consumed by poor and vulnerable Nigerians will not be affected by the increase, Edun, however, the increase in VAT will affect luxury items.

He said, “In terms of VAT, President Bola Tinubu’s commitment is that while implementing difficult and wide-range but necessary reforms, the poorest and most vulnerable will be protected.

The minister also revealed that the bill is currently under review by the National Assembly and in due time, the government will release a list of essential goods exempted from VAT to provide clarity to the public.

“So, the Bills going through the National Assembly in terms of VAT will raise VAT for the wealthy on luxury goods, while at the same time exempting or applying a zero rate to essentials that the poor and average citizens purchase,” Edun explained.

Earlier in October, Investors King reported that the FG had removed VAT on diesel and cooking gas, among others to enhance economic productivity and ease the harsh reality of the current economy.

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Global Debt-to-GDP Ratio Approaching 100%, Rising Above Pandemic Peak

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Naira Exchange Rates - Investors King

The IMF sees countries debt growing above 100% of global GDP, Vitor Gaspar, head of the Fund’s Fiscal Affairs Department said ahead of the launch of the Fiscal Monitor (FM) Wednesday (October 23) in Washington, DC.

“Deficits are high and global public debt is very high and rising. If it continues at the current pace, the global debt-to-GDP ratio will approach 100% by the end of the decade, rising above the pandemic peak,” said Gaspar about the main message from the IMF’s Fiscal Monitor report.

The Fiscal Monitor is highlighting new tools to help policymakers determining the risk of high levels of debt.

“Assessing and managing public debt risks is a major task for policymakers. The Fiscal Monitor makes a major contribution. The Debt at Risk Framework. It considers the distribution of outcomes around the most likely scenario. The analysis in the Fiscal Monitor shows that debt risks are substantially worse than they look from the baseline alone. The framework should help policymakers take preemptive action to avoid the most adverse outcomes.”

Gaspar said that there’s a careful balance between keeping debt lower, versus necessary spending on people, infrastructure and social priorities.

“The Fiscal Monitor identifies three main drivers of debt risks. First, spending pressures from long term underlying trends, but also challenging politics at national, continental and global levels. Second, optimistic bias in debt projections. And third, increasing uncertainty associated with economic, financial and political developments.

Spending pressures from long term underlying trends and from challenging politics at national, continental and global levels. The key is for countries to get started on getting debt under control and to keep at it. Waiting is risky. The longer you wait, the greater the risk the debt becomes unsustainable. At the same time, countries that can afford it should avoid cutting too much, too fast. That would hurt growth and jobs. That is why in many cases we recommend an enduring but gradual fiscal adjustment.”

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IMF Attributes Nigeria’s Economic Downgrade to Inflation, Flooding, and Oil Woes

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IMF - Investors King

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has blamed the downgrade of Nigeria’s economic growth particularly on the effects of recent inflation, flooding and oil production setbacks.

In its World Economic Outlook (WEO) published on Tuesday, the Bretton Wood institution noted that Nigeria’s economy has grown in the last two quarters despite inflation and the weakening of the local currency, however, this could only translate to 2.9 percent in 2024 and 3.2 percent in 2025.

“Nigeria’s economy in the first and second quarter of the year grew by 2.98% and 3.19% respectively amid a surge in inflation and further depreciation of the Naira.

“The GDP growth rate in the first two quarters of 2024 surpassed the figure for 2023, representing resilience despite severe macroeconomic shocks with a spike in petrol prices and a 28-year high inflation rate,” the report seen by Investors King shows.

The spokesperson for IMF’s Research Department, Mr Jean-Marc Natal, said agricultural disruptions caused by severe flooding and security and maintenance issues hampering oil production were key drivers of the revision.

“There has been, over the last year and a half, some progress in the region. You saw, inflation stabilising in some countries, going down even and reaching a level close to the target. So, half of them are still at a large distance from the target, and a third of them are still having double-digit inflation.

“In terms of growth, it’s quite uneven, but it remains too low. The other issue is that in the region it is still high. It has stopped increasing, and in some countries already starting to consolidate, but it’s still too high, and the debt service is, correspondingly, still high in the region,” he said.

It also expects to see some changes in Nigeria’s inflation, which has slowed down in July and August before rising to 32.7 percent in September 2024.

“Nigeria’s inflation rate only began to slow down in July 2024 after 19 months of consistent increase dating back to January 2023.

“However, after two months of slowdown hiatus, inflation continued to rise on the back of an increase in petrol prices by the NNPCL in September,” the report said.

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