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Euro-Area Economy Steams Ahead as ECB Waits for Inflation

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  • Euro-Area Economy Steams Ahead as ECB Waits for Inflation

The euro-area economy expanded apace in the second quarter, a sign the bloc’s upswing is becoming increasingly robust and self-sustaining.

Gross domestic product in the 19-country region rose 0.6 percent in the three months through June, after increasing 0.5 percent at the start of the year. That’s in line with the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists.

Figures from economic confidence to joblessness and manufacturing output have signaled the economy was gaining steam, underpinning expectations by the European Central Bank that price pressures would eventually begin to build. Policy makers are preparing for a debate in the autumn about the future path of quantitative easing, which has helped reduce financing costs for firms and households, thus stimulating demand.

“The ECB expects solid, broad-based growth in the period ahead, and it’s pretty likely this will happen,” said Holger Sandte, chief European analyst at Nordea Markets in Copenhagen. “They will welcome these numbers but the focus will be on core ifnatlation — whether it picks up and how fast.”

France enjoyed its strongest continuous expansion since 2011 in the second quarter, driven by exports and investment, while Spain experienced the fastest growth since 2015, national data published last week showed. The Austrian economy also gathered pace, while Belgium’s performance weakened.

A complete country breakdown will be available on Aug. 16, with details on GDP components due on Sept. 5.

One of the euro area’s main challenges was highlighted in a separate report on manufacturing. While a Purchasing Managers’ Index pointed to broad-based economic growth, price pressures showed further signs of easing in July.

In a sign of confidence in Europe’s largest economy, unemployment in Germany continued to decline last month, data on Tuesday also showed.

The euro was 0.2 percent weaker against the dollar at $1.1817 at 11:32 a.m. in Frankfurt.

Bright Outlook

Corporate results reflect the economy’s strength. European sales at luxury-goods company LVMH increased 11 percent during the second quarter, and staffing company Randstad Holding NV recorded double-digit organic sales growth in the region.

ECB President Mario Draghi has expressed confidence that the solid, broad-based recovery will extend into the second half, with a healing labor market and a closing output gap fueling a sustained inflation pickup.

Economic sentiment hit a decade-high in July, with manufacturers saying they’re working at a higher capacity and selling-price expectations increasing in all sectors, according to a European Commission report last week. The pass-through to consumer inflation has so far been muted though. The rate stayed at 1.3 percent in July, below the ECB’s goal of below, but close to, 2 percent.

While policy makers see enough progress to start a debate about winding down their 2.3 trillion-euro ($2.7 trillion) bond-buying program in September, the International Monetary Fund is urging caution.

“Monetary policy should remain firmly accommodative,” the Washington-based lender wrote in a report published last week. ““The improving near-term outlook is clouded by significant downside risks, especially in the medium and long term.”

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Crude Oil

IOCs Stick to Dollar Dominance in Crude Oil Transactions with Modular Refineries

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Crude Oil - Investors King

International Oil Companies (IOCs) are standing firm on their stance regarding the currency denomination for crude oil transactions with modular refineries.

Despite earlier indications suggesting a potential shift towards naira payments, IOCs have asserted their preference for dollar dominance in these transactions.

The decision, communicated during a meeting involving indigenous modular refineries and crude oil producers, shows the complex dynamics shaping Nigeria’s energy landscape.

While the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) had previously hinted at the possibility of allowing indigenous refineries to purchase crude oil in either naira or dollars, IOCs have maintained a firm stance favoring the latter.

Under this framework, modular refineries would be required to pay 80% of the crude oil purchase amount in US dollars, with the remaining 20% to be settled in naira.

This arrangement, although subject to ongoing discussions, signals a significant departure from initial expectations of a more balanced currency allocation.

Representatives from the Crude Oil Refinery Owners Association of Nigeria (CORAN) said the decision was not unilaterally imposed but rather reached through deliberations with relevant stakeholders, including the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).

While there were initial hopes of broader flexibility in currency options, the dominant position of IOCs has steered discussions towards a more dollar-centric model.

Despite reservations expressed by some participants, including modular refinery operators, the consensus appears to lean towards accommodating the preferences of major crude oil suppliers.

The development underscores the intricate negotiations and power dynamics shaping Nigeria’s energy sector, with implications for both domestic and international stakeholders.

As discussions continue, attention remains focused on how this decision will impact the operations and financial viability of modular refineries in Nigeria’s evolving oil landscape.

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Energy

Nigeria’s Dangote Refinery Overtakes European Giants in Capacity, Bloomberg Reports

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Aliko Dangote - Investors King

The Dangote Refinery has surpassed some of Europe’s largest refineries in terms of capacity, according to a recent report by Bloomberg.

The $20 billion Dangote refinery, located in Lagos, boasts a refining capacity of 650,000 barrels of petroleum products per day, positioning it as a formidable player in the global refining industry.

Bloomberg’s data highlighted that the Dangote refinery’s capacity exceeds that of Shell’s Pernis refinery in the Netherlands by over 246,000 barrels per day. Making Dangote’s facility a significant contender in the refining industry.

The report also underscored the scale of Dangote’s refinery compared to other prominent European refineries.

For instance, the TotalEnergies Antwerp refining facility in Belgium can refine 338,000 barrels per day, while the GOI Energy ISAB refinery in Italy was built with a refining capacity of 360,000 barrels per day.

Describing the Dangote refinery as a ‘game changer,’ Bloomberg emphasized its strategic advantage of leveraging cheaper U.S. oil imports for a substantial portion of its feedstock.

Analysts anticipate that the refinery’s operations will have a transformative impact on Nigeria’s fuel market and the broader region.

The refinery has already commenced shipping products in recent weeks while preparing to ramp up petrol output.

Analysts predict that Dangote’s refinery will influence Atlantic Basin gasoline markets and significantly alter the dynamics of the petroleum trade in West Africa.

Reuters recently reported that the Dangote refinery has the potential to disrupt the decades-long petrol trade from Europe to Africa, worth an estimated $17 billion annually.

With a configured capacity to produce up to 53 million liters of petrol per day, the refinery is poised to meet a significant portion of Nigeria’s fuel demand and reduce the country’s dependence on imported petroleum products.

Aliko Dangote, Africa’s richest man and the visionary behind the refinery, has demonstrated his commitment to revolutionizing Nigeria’s energy landscape. As the Dangote refinery continues to scale up its operations, it is poised to not only bolster Nigeria’s energy security but also emerge as a key player in the global refining industry.

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Crude Oil

Brent Crude Hits $88.42, WTI Climbs to $83.36 on Dollar Index Dip

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Brent crude oil - Investors King

Oil prices surged as Brent crude oil appreciated to $88.42 a barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed to $83.36 a barrel.

The uptick in prices comes as the U.S. dollar index dipped to its lowest level in over a week, prompting investors to shift their focus from geopolitical tensions to global economic conditions.

The weakening of the U.S. dollar, a key factor influencing oil prices, provided a boost to dollar-denominated commodities like oil. As the dollar index fell, demand for oil from investors holding other currencies increased, leading to the rise in prices.

Investors also found support in euro zone data indicating a robust expansion in business activity, with April witnessing the fastest pace of growth in nearly a year.

Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, noted that the market had been under pressure due to sluggish growth in the euro zone, making any signs of improvement supportive for oil prices.

Market participants are increasingly looking beyond geopolitical tensions and focusing on economic indicators and supply-and-demand dynamics.

Despite initial concerns regarding tensions between Israel and Iran and uncertainties surrounding China’s economic performance, the market sentiment remained optimistic, buoyed by expectations of steady oil demand.

Analysts anticipate the release of key economic data later in the week, including U.S. first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) figures and March’s personal consumption expenditures, which serve as the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge.

These data points are expected to provide further insights into the health of the economy and potentially impact oil prices.

Also, anticipation builds around the release of U.S. crude oil inventory data by the Energy Information Administration, scheduled for Wednesday.

Preliminary reports suggest an increase in crude oil inventories alongside a decrease in refined product stockpiles, reflecting ongoing dynamics in the oil market.

As oil prices continue their upward trajectory, investors remain vigilant, monitoring economic indicators and geopolitical developments for further cues on the future direction of the market.

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