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Miners Drive South African Stocks to Record High as Kumba Gains

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South African Rand - Investors King
  • Miners Drive South African Stocks to Record High as Kumba Gains

South Africa’s benchmark stock index advanced to a record Monday, joining a global rally as commodity prices surged on optimism economic growth is gathering momentum.

The FTSE/JSE Africa All Share Index rose as much as 0.9 percent to 55,366.74. It pared gains to be 0.7 percent higher by 10:45 a.m. in Johannesburg, still set for the strongest close on record. The gauge is up more than 7 percent in July, headed for the best monthly performance since October 2015. Mining companies including Kumba Iron Ore Ltd., African Rainbow Minerals Ltd., Glencore Plc and Anglo American Plc were among the biggest gainers.

South African stocks have been held back this year by an economy that slumped into its second recession in almost a decade. The Johannesburg benchmark’s 9.1 percent advance since the start of 2017 is well short of the 24 percent jump in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index as concerns persist over whether the government of President Jacob Zuma will pursue policies to reignite growth.

This is “quite a big recovery from not long ago, when the market was under tremendous pressure because of the negativity that’s gone on generally in the economy,” Ferdi Heyneke, a money manager at Afrifocus Securities, said by phone from Johannesburg. “It could be quite a bullish sentiment if we continue to break on the upside.” With the “right economic management locally” and a continuation of overseas markets performing well, “we can certainly see some good upside going forward,” he said.

There is at least one sign that Johannesburg stocks may have already risen too much. For the first time since March 2016, the benchmark index’s relative strength index is above 70, a level that suggests it may be poised to drop. As recently as the middle of last month, the RSI suggested that South African stocks were oversold.

“The market is pricing in the second half of 2018, when the recession will be over, interest rates will be lower and we’ll likely have a new president,” Simon Brown, a trader at Just One Lap, said by email. Those factors are “all good news for local earnings within our market that’ll be added to decent global earnings,” he said.

Kumba Iron Ore climbed 5.2 percent, Anglo American was 3.6 percent higher, African Rainbow gained 3.3 percent and Glencore advanced 3.2 percent.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Energy

Federal Government Announces Free CNG Conversion for Commercial Vehicles

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The Federal Government declared on Thursday that the conversion of petrol and diesel-powered commercial vehicles to run on Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) will be free of charge.

The announcement came after the government signed agreements with several companies specializing in the conversion of petrol and diesel vehicles to CNG.

Michael Oluwagbemi, the Programme Director/Chief Executive of the Presidential Compressed Natural Gas Initiative (P-CNGI), disclosed the details of the program to journalists in Abuja.

“Today we’ve just signed with five partners here in the FCT (Federal Capital Territory) participating in the Conversion Incentive Programme,” Oluwagbemi stated.

“The program is tackling the barrier to Nigerian commercial transport operators to convert from PMS (petrol) to gas. Most of them have said that the cost of conversion is expensive, and so what we are doing here today is basically to respond to that concern.”

Benefits for Commercial Transport Operators

The initiative primarily targets commercial transporters under various unions, including the Road Transport Employers Association of Nigeria (RTEAN), National Union of Road Transport Workers (NURTW), and the Nigerian Association of Road Transport Owners (NARTO).

According to Oluwagbemi, these unionized operators will receive conversion kits and installation services completely free of charge.

“This is going to be done through certified conversion workshops that we are beginning to identify. We’ve identified about 123 of them, and five are here with us today in Abuja. As we expand across the country, we will activate more of them,” he said.

Ride Share Operators Included

In addition to unionized commercial transporters, ride share operators such as those working with Uber, Bolt, Lag-Ride, and Move will also benefit from the program. These operators will receive a 50% discount on the conversion equipment and free installation.

Furthermore, the arrangement allows them to pay for the remaining costs in installments, eliminating the need for upfront payments.

“We hope to add more ride share operators soon. Lag-Ride has already signed up, and we are going to send the agreement next week,” Oluwagbemi added.

Impact on Transportation Costs

Through this program, the government aims to reduce transportation costs for Nigerians. Oluwagbemi highlighted that over 20,000 kits will be available in the next three months, distributed across 25 states with existing CNG capacity.

This initiative is part of a broader palliative program funded by the National Assembly, which has allocated additional resources for the acquisition of more kits later this year.

“The agreement we signed today ensures that the savings from the conversion will be passed on to ordinary Nigerians. We will begin to see some impact in terms of reduced transportation costs,” Oluwagbemi noted.

Monitoring and Enforcement

To ensure the success of the program, the government has implemented a robust monitoring mechanism.

The Nigerian gas vehicle monitoring system will oversee the conversion process and ensure compliance with agreed pricing reductions.

“We have a very strong monitoring mechanism around conversion and the enforcement of reduced pricing for Nigerians. The framework of the agreement includes significant pass-on of savings to ensure the purpose of the palliative is achieved,” Oluwagbemi emphasized.

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Crude Oil

Nigeria’s Oil Production Rises by 25,000 Barrels Daily, Hits 1.276 Million BPD in July

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Crude oil

Nigeria’s daily oil production increased in July by 25,000 barrels per day to 1.276 million barrels per day (mbpd).

This development was disclosed by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in its Monthly Oil Market Report for June, based on direct communication with the Nigerian government.

In April, production was recorded at 1.28mbpd, but it fell to 1.25mbpd in May.

Secondary sources cited by OPEC indicated a slight decrease from 1.37mbpd in May to 1.36mbpd in June.

This disparity shows Nigeria’s challenges in maintaining a steady increase in oil production.

Mele Kyari, Group Chief Executive Officer of the Nigeria National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC), had previously stated that crude production was approaching 1.7mbpd in May.

Kyari emphasized the potential for higher production levels, recalling that during the COVID-19 pandemic in April 2020, Nigeria’s production reached 2.2mbpd without new drilling activities.

The drop in production since then has been attributed to various factors, including theft and vandalism of oil infrastructure.

Despite these challenges, Nigeria’s oil production saw a marginal increase in April, rising from 1.23mbpd in March to 1.28mbpd, according to OPEC data.

This increase followed a significant drop from 1.32mbpd in February to 1.23mbpd in March.

Stakeholders have expressed concern over the persistent decline in production and its impact on revenue.

In response, the NNPC declared a state of emergency on oil production, aiming to address the factors hindering output.

At the Nigeria Oil and Gas Conference and Exhibition Week in Abuja, Kyari reaffirmed the NNPC’s commitment to tackling production challenges.

“We have declared war on the challenges affecting our crude oil production. We know what to fight, we have the right tools, and we are working with our partners to improve the situation,” Kyari stated.

The recent increase in daily oil production is a positive development for Nigeria’s oil sector, but sustained efforts are required to achieve long-term stability and growth in production levels.

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Crude Oil

Oil Prices Climb as U.S. Inflation Eases, Brent Hits $86

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Oil prices rose on Friday after traders noticed signs of easing inflationary pressures in the United States, the world’s largest oil consumer.

Brent crude oil, against which Nigerian oil is priced, had risen by 72 cents, or 0.8% to $86.12 a barrel.

Meanwhile, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil climbed by 85 cents, or 1%, to $83.47 a barrel. Both contracts had also gained in the prior two sessions.

Despite these gains, Brent crude oil was poised to fall by about 1% week-on-week after four consecutive weekly increases.

WTI crude oil, on the other hand, remained broadly stable on a weekly basis.

Investor confidence was boosted after data released on Thursday showed that U.S. consumer prices fell in June, fueling hopes that the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates soon.

Lower rates are expected to spur economic growth, thereby increasing fuel consumption.

However, the market is still awaiting more definitive signs of action. While Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged the recent trend of improving price pressures, he told lawmakers that more data would be needed to strengthen the case for rate cuts.

“Cooling U.S. inflation numbers may support the case for the Fed to kick-start its policy easing process earlier rather than later, but it also adds to the series of downside surprises in U.S. economic data, which points to a clear weakening of the U.S. economy,” said Yeap Jun Rong, a market strategist at IG.

In addition to inflation data, indications of strong summer fuel demand in the U.S. also supported prices. U.S. gasoline demand was at 9.4 million barrels per day (bpd) in the week ended July 5, the highest level since 2019 for the week that includes the Independence Day holiday, according to government data released on Wednesday.

Jet fuel demand on a four-week average basis was at its strongest since January 2020.

“The market will remain range-bound, paralyzed by opposing forces of expected demand recovery fueled by anticipation of a strong summer for fuel consumption … but sentiment remains pegged by ongoing economic weakness and uncertain demand recovery,” said Emril Jamil, a senior oil analyst at LSEG.

The strong fuel demand encouraged U.S. refiners to ramp up activity and draw from crude oil stockpiles. U.S. Gulf Coast refiners’ net input of crude rose last week to more than 9.4 million bpd for the first time since January 2019, government data showed.

However, weaker demand signs from China, the world’s largest oil importer, could counter the positive outlook from the U.S. and weigh on prices.

“The recent downside correction is evidently over, although the speed of further ascent might be hindered by falling Chinese crude oil imports, which plummeted 11% in June from the previous year,” said Tamas Varga of oil broker PVM.

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