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Forex

Forex Weekly Outlook July 31- August 4

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USDCAD
  • Forex Weekly Outlook July 31- August 4

The US economic data showed the economy is healthy and expanded 2.6 percent in the second quarter. However, the US dollar dipped against most currencies, mainly because of the ongoing political tussle in the US and North Korea successful test of an ICBM capable of delivering a nuclear warhead to the US.

Again, while the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  announced its readiness to commence balance sheet normalization as soon as October, it also voiced its concern on weak inflation rate and the need for the apex bank to move gradually as previously stated. This further cast doubt on the widely expected rates decision by both investors and the markets.

However, the weak US dollar boosted exports to 4.1 percent in the second quarter, while consumer spending surged to 2.8 percent. Riding on solid job data and steady wage growth. Suggesting that the weak US dollar is aiding businesses –especially the manufacturing sector. A move most experts believed could continue to support the sector if Trump’s proposed tax cut failed.

In Australia, the Aussie dollar dropped slightly after data showed inflation rate rose 0.2 percent in the second quarter, down from 0.5 percent recorded in the first quarter. Signaling that despite the surge in the Aussie dollar value, the Reserve Bank of Australia, RBA, would not be raising rate soon.

This was after the RBA Governor Philip Lowe’s said the weak consumer prices was due to slow growth in wages. Even though unemployment rate was at a record low, wage growth has been on the decline alongside future expectations. Dragging down household consumptions as data showed households revised down their expectations of future income growth. This is the slowest wage growth since 1997.

In the UK, the International Monetary Fund revised down UK’s economic growth projection for 2017 to 1.7 percent, citing rising inflation rate and increased headwinds. Likewise, consumer confidence plunged to post Brexit low. Suggesting consumers are starting to doubt future growth amid Brexit.

In Canada, the economy expanded by 0.6 percent, up from 0.2 percent. However, the Canadian dollar has struggled to sustain its Trump’s rally, even with a surge in its manufacturing activities and a healthy labour market. Indicating that the uncertainty in the global oil market and US business atmosphere is weighing on Canadian dollar outlook.

This week, USDCAD and GBPCAD top my list.

USDCAD

After our first target was hit last week, this pair continues its bearish run breaking a two-year support level. This sustained break would attract more sellers, especially after data revealed the Canadian economy expanded better than projected.

Forex Weekly Outlook July 31- August 4

Past week quote; Technically, the bearish flag pattern started in Jan 2016 signifies bearish breakout after closing below 1.3142 three weeks ago but affirmed bearish continuation following a sustained break of 1.2849 support level last week. Therefore, this week I will be expecting USDCAD to sustain current bearish move with 1.2494 as the first target. A sustained break of 1.2494 support levels should open up 1.2217.

Therefore, this week I will be adding to my sell order for 1.2217 targets.

GBPCAD

Since I mentioned this pair three weeks ago, it has plunged by 248 pips. Hitting our target 1 and 2.

However, with the growing weak business confidence in the U.K and low new investments. This pair is expected to continue its downward trend as long as 1.6497 resistance holds.

Forex Weekly Outlook July 31- August 4

Past week quote; This is because the U.K. economy has started slowing down as the political uncertainty in the region worsen after Theresa May failed to win majority votes in June.

On the other hand, the Canadian dollar gained from growing labor market and improving manufacturing sector.

Therefore, I will be looking to sell for 1.6209 targets.

Is the CEO and Founder of Investors King Limited. He is a seasoned foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Business Insider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and other prominent platforms. With over two decades of experience in global financial markets, Olukoya is well-recognized in the industry.

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Naira

Naira Weakens Against Dollar at Official, Parallel FX Markets

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New Naira notes

The Naira depreciated at the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM) and the parallel market on Monday, signifying more worries for the local currency.

At the official market – NAFEM – the local currency sold for the US Dollar at N1,603.16/$1 as it recorded a 0.15 percent or N2.38 drop versus N1,600.78/$1 it was valued at the previous session on Friday.

This occurred as supply rose at the opening session as turnover published on the FMDQ Group website stood at $359.22 million indicating that the session’s turnover went higher by 2.4 percent or $8.50 million compared to $350.72 million that was published the day before.

At the unofficial market, the domestic currency closed at N1,698.97 to the US Dollar, a drop of N8.15 compared to N1,690.82/$1 it closed during the Friday trading session.

The weakening of the Naira is happening as the nation’s external reserves continue to swell due to lower US Dollar volume sales to boost liquidity in the official FX market.

Latest data showed the balance in Nigeria’s foreign reserves inched to about $39 billion as CBN data revealed that Nigeria now has $38.992 billion as gross balance in the nation’s external reserves.

The CBN has not made do with its promise to prop up the market as it appears to have halted its weekly FX sales

In a different trend, the domestic currency witnessed a flat outcome against the British currency and the Euro in the week’s opening session.

On the Pound Sterling, the local currency closed at N2,153.90/£1 and N1,800.79/€1 on the Euro.

In the parallel market, the local currency depreciated in its value against the British Pound Sterling by N11.69 to sell at N2,213.25/£1 compared with the preceding session’s N2,201.56/£1 and followed the same pattern against the Euro as it lost N10 to quote at N1,845.29/€1 versus the previous day’s rate of N1,835.29/€1.

The local currency also depreciated further by N8.64 to close at N1,225.82 per Canadian Dollar, compared to Friday’s N1,217.18 per CAD.

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Naira

Naira Appreciates 3.6% on US Dollar, Trades N1,600

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Naira to Dollar Exchange- Investors King Rate - Investors King

The Naira rose 3.6 percent on the US Dollar at the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) to exchange at N1,600.78/$1 on Friday, October 18 as the local currency appreciated amid an increased supply.

The domestic currency gained N59.71 on the American currency versus N1,660.49/$1, which it closed in the previous session on Thursday.

Data showed a rise in supply as the turnover published on the FMDQ Group website stood at $350.72 million indicating that the session’s turnover rose by 6.2 percent, indicating a rise of $20.54 million compared to $330.18 million that was published in the last trading session.

Meanwhile, the Naira witnessed a flat outcome against the Pound Sterling and the Euro as it closed on the British currency at N2,153.90/£1 and on the European currency at N1,791.06/€1 quoted in the preceding session.

In the Parallel market, the Naira weakened on the American currency as it closed at N1,690.82 to the US Dollar, a drop of N1.31 compared to N1,689.51/$1 it closed during the Wednesday trading session.

In the past months, the Naira has been volatile against the Dollar at the FX market despite interventions by the Central Bank of Nigeria.

The World Bank also said the Nigerian Naira is among the worst-performing currencies in sub-Sahara Africa at the end of August 2024.

In its latest edition of Africa’s Pulse report, the international organisation said the Naira is at par with the Ethiopian Birr, and South Sudanese Pound in terms of decline in the region.

However, the local currency appreciated in its value against the British Pound Sterling in the official market by N54 to sell at N2,201.93/£1 compared with the preceding session’s N2,147.93/£1 and followed the same pattern against the Euro as it gained N4.58 to quote at N1,835.29/€1 versus the previous day’s rate of N1,839.87/€1.

The local currency also depreciated N16.11 to close at N1,217.18 per Canadian Dollar, compared to Thursday’s N1,201.07 per CAD.

 

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Black Market Rate

Naira Gains on Dollar, Pounds, Others at Black Market, Falls at NAFEX

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New Naira notes

The Naira gained against the US Dollar in the Parallel segment of the foreign exchange market on Thursday, October 17 as it closed at N1,689.51 to the American currency, a gain of N4.41 compared to N1,693.32/$1 it closed during the Wednesday trading session.

The Naira also gained in its value against the British Pound Sterling in the market by N11.19 to sell at N2,147.93/£1 compared with the preceding session’s N2,159.12/£1 and followed the same pattern against the Euro as it appreciated N8.07 to quote at N1,839.87/€1 versus the previous day’s rate of N1,847.94/€1.

The local currency also appreciated N3.59 to close at N1,201.07 per Canadian Dollar, compared to the previous day’s closing value of N1,204.66 per CAD.

Meanwhile, the Naira depreciated marginally for yet another session against the US Dollar in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) to N1,660.49/$1.

The local currency rose fell by 0.05 per cent or N91.01 at the window, according to data obtained from FMDQ Securities Exchange compared to N1,659.69/$1 published in the preceding session on Wednesday.

This occurred as supply rose at the penultimate session as turnover published on the FMDQ Group website stood at $330.18 million indicating that the session’s turnover jumped by 86.4 per cent, indicating that there was a decrease of $153.08 million compared to $177.10 million published the previous day.

The surge in supply could be due to peer-to-peer sales as the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has no actively injected liquidity in the market.

Investors King reports that the CBN in August re-introduced the retail Dutch auction system with the aim to sell US Dollar to FX users on demand basis but after the market witnessed more than $1.1 billion injected into the system, there has been slowdown in the auction.

In a different pattern, the local currency closed flat against the Pound Sterling and depreciated on the Euro at the closing session.

Trading against the British currency, the local currency closed at N2,153.90/£1 while it closed at the rate of N1,791.06/€1, a N9.73 appreciation against N1,800.79/€1 against the Euro.

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