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Forex Weekly Outlook July 31- August 4

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USDCAD
  • Forex Weekly Outlook July 31- August 4

The US economic data showed the economy is healthy and expanded 2.6 percent in the second quarter. However, the US dollar dipped against most currencies, mainly because of the ongoing political tussle in the US and North Korea successful test of an ICBM capable of delivering a nuclear warhead to the US.

Again, while the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  announced its readiness to commence balance sheet normalization as soon as October, it also voiced its concern on weak inflation rate and the need for the apex bank to move gradually as previously stated. This further cast doubt on the widely expected rates decision by both investors and the markets.

However, the weak US dollar boosted exports to 4.1 percent in the second quarter, while consumer spending surged to 2.8 percent. Riding on solid job data and steady wage growth. Suggesting that the weak US dollar is aiding businesses –especially the manufacturing sector. A move most experts believed could continue to support the sector if Trump’s proposed tax cut failed.

In Australia, the Aussie dollar dropped slightly after data showed inflation rate rose 0.2 percent in the second quarter, down from 0.5 percent recorded in the first quarter. Signaling that despite the surge in the Aussie dollar value, the Reserve Bank of Australia, RBA, would not be raising rate soon.

This was after the RBA Governor Philip Lowe’s said the weak consumer prices was due to slow growth in wages. Even though unemployment rate was at a record low, wage growth has been on the decline alongside future expectations. Dragging down household consumptions as data showed households revised down their expectations of future income growth. This is the slowest wage growth since 1997.

In the UK, the International Monetary Fund revised down UK’s economic growth projection for 2017 to 1.7 percent, citing rising inflation rate and increased headwinds. Likewise, consumer confidence plunged to post Brexit low. Suggesting consumers are starting to doubt future growth amid Brexit.

In Canada, the economy expanded by 0.6 percent, up from 0.2 percent. However, the Canadian dollar has struggled to sustain its Trump’s rally, even with a surge in its manufacturing activities and a healthy labour market. Indicating that the uncertainty in the global oil market and US business atmosphere is weighing on Canadian dollar outlook.

This week, USDCAD and GBPCAD top my list.

USDCAD

After our first target was hit last week, this pair continues its bearish run breaking a two-year support level. This sustained break would attract more sellers, especially after data revealed the Canadian economy expanded better than projected.

Forex Weekly Outlook July 31- August 4

Past week quote; Technically, the bearish flag pattern started in Jan 2016 signifies bearish breakout after closing below 1.3142 three weeks ago but affirmed bearish continuation following a sustained break of 1.2849 support level last week. Therefore, this week I will be expecting USDCAD to sustain current bearish move with 1.2494 as the first target. A sustained break of 1.2494 support levels should open up 1.2217.

Therefore, this week I will be adding to my sell order for 1.2217 targets.

GBPCAD

Since I mentioned this pair three weeks ago, it has plunged by 248 pips. Hitting our target 1 and 2.

However, with the growing weak business confidence in the U.K and low new investments. This pair is expected to continue its downward trend as long as 1.6497 resistance holds.

Forex Weekly Outlook July 31- August 4

Past week quote; This is because the U.K. economy has started slowing down as the political uncertainty in the region worsen after Theresa May failed to win majority votes in June.

On the other hand, the Canadian dollar gained from growing labor market and improving manufacturing sector.

Therefore, I will be looking to sell for 1.6209 targets.

CEO/Founder Investors King Ltd, a foreign exchange research analyst, contributing author on New York-based Talk Markets and Investing.com, with over a decade experience in the global financial markets.

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Forex

BDCs Continues To Provide Forex Services After CBN Halts Sales Of Forex To Operators

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naira

The recent announcement by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) suspending dollar sales to Bureau de Change Operators would not stop the forex retailers from conducting their services in line with their operating licenses and guidelines.

According to a statement by the President of the Association of Bureaux De Change Operators of Nigeria (ABCON), Aminu Gwadabe, BDCs will continue to provide foreign exchange services to the public.

“BDCs are licensed to provide retail FX services, including buying from the public and also selling to end-users for allowable transactions namely Personal Travel Allowance (PTA), Business Travel Allowance (BTA), payment of medical and school fees,” Gwadabe said.

He added that while the dollar sale from CBN had helped in enhancing supply, the fact remains that BDCs are empowered to source FX from other sources and also to provide various services to members of the public.

“While the CBN has stopped dollar sale to BDCs, it has not canceled their operating licenses, or banned them from providing FX services to members of the public”, he added.

“At ABCON, we urge our members to see the CBN pronouncement as a wake-up call and opportunity to widen their customer base and deepen their business.

“ABCON has always worked with the CBN to ensure proper working of the FX market and in line with this principle, we will engage with the apex bank to address and resolve all the issues that led to the recent action, including identification and sanctioning of earring BDCs, where necessary.

“In addition to this, and in view of the fact that BDCs have been very effective in ensuring stable exchange rate, ABCON will work with relevant stakeholders including law enforcement agencies to develop a National BDC Policy with the aim of enhancing the contribution of the BDC subsector to the nation’s economy”, he said.

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Naira

Naira Exchange Rates Today, Friday, July 30, 2021

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BDC Operators - Investors King

Naira gained N5 against the United States Dollar on Friday morning to N520 at the parallel market popularly known as the black market.

Against the British Pound, the local currency dropped N5 from N710 recorded on Wednesday to N715 on Friday, while against the European it remained at N600, the same rate it traded in the last three days.

The Naira plunged against its global counterparts after the Central bank of Nigeria accused Bureau De Change Operators (BDCs) of illicit money flows and market manipulations that over time have sustained the unregulated black market section of forex.

Operators at the bureau de change section of forex had been accused of being the main source of forex for speculators and hoarders that manipulate forex rates at the unregulated black market, this the CBN plans to curb by cutting its weekly forex supply to BDCs but focus on servicing the economy through the banks.

Naira Black Market Exchange Rates

Morning * Midday** Evening *** Final Rates

Date USD GBP EURO YUAN Canadian Australian
NGN BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL
30/07/2021 512/520* 705/715* 590/600* 70/75 410/420 300/325
29/07/2021 512/520 705/715 590/600 70/75 410/420 300/325
28/07/2021 515/525 700/710 590/600 63/70 410/420 300/320
27/07/2021 500/505 695/703 585/592 62/69 407/415 300/320
26/07/2021 500/504 695/703 585/592 62/69 407/415 300/320
23/07/2021 500/504 698/705 588/595 62/69 407/415 300/320
22/07/2021 498/503 695/703 585/590 62/69 407/415 300/320
19/07/2021 495/503 698/705 585/592 62/69 407/415 300/320
16/07/2021 502/506 700/708 590/596 62/69 407/415 300/315
15/07/2021 500/505 700/708 590/596 62/69 407/415 300/320
14/07/2021 500/505 702/708 590/595 62/68 407/415 300/320
13/07/2021 500/505 702/708 590/595 62/68 407/415 300/320
12/07/2021 500/505 700/708 590/595 62/69 407/415 300/320
09/07/2021 500/505 700/708 588/593 62/69 407/417 300/320
08/07/2021 499/503 700/708 588/593 62/69 407/417 300/325
07/07/2021 499/503 700/710 588/593 62/69 407/417 300/325
06/07/2021 499/503 698/710 590/595 62/69 407/417 300/325

Bureau De Change Naira Rates

Date USD GBP EURO
NGN BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL
30/07/2021 510/525 705/715 590/602
29/07/2021 510/525 705/715 590/602
28/07/2021 510/520 695/706 585/600
27/07/2021 490/500 690/700 580/595
26/07/2021 490/500 694/705 580/595
23/07/2021 490/500 694/705 580/595
22/07/2021 490/500 690/705 580/595
19/07/2021 490/500 690/707 580/595
16/07/2021 490/500 700/710 585/600
15/07/2021 490/500 698/710 585/600
14/07/2021 490/500 698/710 590/595
13/07/2021 490/500 697/710 585/600
12/07/2021 490/500 698/710 585/600
09/07/2021 490/500 698/710 585/600
08/07/2021 490/500 697/710 585/600
07/07/2021 490/500 697/710 585/600
06/07/2021 490/500 697/710 585/600
05/07/2021 490/500 700/714 585/600

Central Bank of Nigeria’s Official Naira Rates

Date Currency Buying(NGN) Central(NGN) Selling(NGN)
7/28/2021 US DOLLAR 409.16 409.66 410.16
7/28/2021 POUNDS STERLING 567.8322 568.5261 569.22
7/28/2021 EURO 483.0543 483.6446 484.2349
7/28/2021 SWISS FRANC 446.8276 447.3736 447.9196
7/28/2021 YEN 3.7163 3.7208 3.7253
7/28/2021 CFA 0.7176 0.7276 0.7376
7/28/2021 WAUA 580.7934 581.5032 582.2129
7/28/2021 YUAN/RENMINBI 62.9303 63.0077 63.085
7/28/2021 RIYAL 109.0919 109.2252 109.3585
7/28/2021 SOUTH AFRICAN RAND 27.6161 27.6498 27.6836

N.B: These tables are updated three times a day.

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Naira

Naira Exchange Rates Today, Thursday, July 29, 2021

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Naira to Dollar Exchange- Investors King Rate - Investors King

Naira continues its decline across the board as forex scarcity persists following the Central Bank of Nigeria’s decision to cut off the bureau de change forex section.

The Naira exchanged against the United States Dollar at N520 on Thursday at the black market. Against the British Pound and the Euro, the local currency exchanged at N715 and N600, respectively.

The Central Bank of Nigeria had accused Bureau de Change operators of engaging in money laundering and illicit flows with criminal-minded individuals that operate mainly at the unregulated black market section of forex.

Operators at the bureau de change section of forex had been accused of being the main source of forex for speculators and hoarders that manipulate forex rates at the unregulated black market, this the CBN plans to curb by cutting its weekly forex supply to BDCs but focus on servicing the economy through the banks.

Naira Black Market Exchange Rates

Morning * Midday** Evening *** Final Rates

Date USD GBP EURO YUAN Canadian Australian
NGN BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL
29/07/2021 512/520 705/715 590/600 70/75 410/420 300/325
28/07/2021 515/525 700/710 590/600 63/70 410/420 300/320
27/07/2021 500/505 695/703 585/592 62/69 407/415 300/320
26/07/2021 500/504 695/703 585/592 62/69 407/415 300/320
23/07/2021 500/504 698/705 588/595 62/69 407/415 300/320
22/07/2021 498/503 695/703 585/590 62/69 407/415 300/320
19/07/2021 495/503 698/705 585/592 62/69 407/415 300/320
16/07/2021 502/506 700/708 590/596 62/69 407/415 300/315
15/07/2021 500/505 700/708 590/596 62/69 407/415 300/320
14/07/2021 500/505 702/708 590/595 62/68 407/415 300/320
13/07/2021 500/505 702/708 590/595 62/68 407/415 300/320
12/07/2021 500/505 700/708 590/595 62/69 407/415 300/320
09/07/2021 500/505 700/708 588/593 62/69 407/417 300/320
08/07/2021 499/503 700/708 588/593 62/69 407/417 300/325
07/07/2021 499/503 700/710 588/593 62/69 407/417 300/325
06/07/2021 499/503 698/710 590/595 62/69 407/417 300/325

Bureau De Change Naira Rates

Date USD GBP EURO
NGN BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL
29/07/2021 510/525 705/715 590/602
28/07/2021 510/520 695/706 585/600
27/07/2021 490/500 690/700 580/595
26/07/2021 490/500 694/705 580/595
23/07/2021 490/500 694/705 580/595
22/07/2021 490/500 690/705 580/595
19/07/2021 490/500 690/707 580/595
16/07/2021 490/500 700/710 585/600
15/07/2021 490/500 698/710 585/600
14/07/2021 490/500 698/710 590/595
13/07/2021 490/500 697/710 585/600
12/07/2021 490/500 698/710 585/600
09/07/2021 490/500 698/710 585/600
08/07/2021 490/500 697/710 585/600
07/07/2021 490/500 697/710 585/600
06/07/2021 490/500 697/710 585/600
05/07/2021 490/500 700/714 585/600

Central Bank of Nigeria’s Official Naira Rates

Date Currency Buying(NGN) Central(NGN) Selling(NGN)
7/28/2021 US DOLLAR 409.16 409.66 410.16
7/28/2021 POUNDS STERLING 567.8322 568.5261 569.22
7/28/2021 EURO 483.0543 483.6446 484.2349
7/28/2021 SWISS FRANC 446.8276 447.3736 447.9196
7/28/2021 YEN 3.7163 3.7208 3.7253
7/28/2021 CFA 0.7176 0.7276 0.7376
7/28/2021 WAUA 580.7934 581.5032 582.2129
7/28/2021 YUAN/RENMINBI 62.9303 63.0077 63.085
7/28/2021 RIYAL 109.0919 109.2252 109.3585
7/28/2021 SOUTH AFRICAN RAND 27.6161 27.6498 27.6836

N.B: These tables are updated three times a day.

 

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