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Forex Weekly Outlook July 17-21

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Bank of Canada
  • Forex Weekly Outlook July 17-21

The US dollar plunged against G-10 currencies after data signals the Federal Reserves might not raise rates for the third time this year.

This is because the retail sales fell 0.2 percent in June after declining by 0.1 percent in May. Suggesting that consumers were cautious about spending even with a healthy labour market.

Also, the consumer prices remain steady following a 0.1 percent decline in May. While the lackluster pricing is largely due to the drop in gasoline cost, the inflation rate is below Fed’s 2 percent target and differ Fed chair Yellen Janet’s statement that a healthy labour market would gradually filter through other sectors of the economy and boost wage growth while simultaneously bolstering inflation rate towards Federal Reserves’ target.

In Canada, the Bank of Canada raised overnight cash rate by 25 basis points to 0.75 percent, citing broad growth and strong labour market. This further boosted the loonie attractiveness against the US dollar to over a year high of 1.2648. According to the central bank, the Canadian economy remains robust with growth broadening across industries and regions. However, the bank estimated that real growth will moderate from 2.8 percent projected in 2017 to 2.0 percent in 2018 and 1.6 percent in 2019.

This Week, USDCAD, AUDJPY and EURCAD top my list.

USDCAD

The uncertainty surrounding the US rates hike and the political sphere continue to weigh on the US dollar attractiveness. While Canadian dollar was boosted by the Bank of Canada decision to raise overnight cash rate for the first time in 7 years, the economy remains healthy and projected to sustain current cash inflow for the remaining half of the year.

Forex Weekly Outlook July 17-21

Technically, the bearish flag pattern started in Jan 2016 signifies bearish breakout after closing below 1.3142 three weeks ago but affirmed bearish continuation following a sustained break of 1.2849 support level last week. Therefore, this week I will be expecting USDCAD to sustain current bearish move with 1.2494 as the first target. A sustained break of 1.2494 support levels should open up 1.2217.

AUDJPY

The Australian dollar continues to gain against the Japanese Yen, bringing its total gain since June to 634 pips. This is 4 pips below 15-month high established during Donald Trump’s rally as shown below. Again, while the Australian economy is expected to strengthen amid improved business conditions and the surge in capacity utilisation, the Japanese Yen is weighed upon by almost zero inflation rate and weak wage growth.

Forex Weekly Outlook July 17-21

Therefore, this week, I will expect a sustained gain above the 88.17 price levels to open up 90.32 targets. For two reasons, one the weak US economic data that cast doubt on rates hike bolstered Aussie dollar to a two year high against the dollar, meaning there is a surge in demand for the Aussie dollar, especially after the hawkish statement from the central bank.

Two, while Japanese Yen is partly affected by political uncertainty surrounding Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s party lost in Tokyo, Australia remains free of a political conundrum.

EURCAD

While the Euro-single currency has sustained its gain against most currencies. It has failed to do the same against the Canadian dollar, losing 753 pips since peaking at 1.5256 in June.

Also, for the first time since April, the pair closed below 1.4602 last week and established a bearish pin bar candlestick to validate bearish continuation.

Forex Weekly Outlook July 17-21

Therefore, if the EURCAD break 1.4444 support level, below the trendline as shown above. I will be looking to sell for 1.4398 targets and expect a break of that level to boost the EURCAD attractiveness towards 1.4172 support level, target 2.

 

Last Week Recap

CADJPY

Target 2 was hit last week, however, the volume of trade was low due to the growing uncertainty in the region, especially from the US, Canada’s largest trading partner.

Forex Weekly Outlook July 17-21

This week, I remain bullish on this particular pair and will expect a sustained break of target 2 to open up target 3 as explained last week.

GBPCAD

Last week, this pair gave us 225 pips, hitting our target 1 at 1.6497 and was 2 pips short of our target 2, 1.6353, before rebounding to close above 1.6497 levels.

Forex Weekly Outlook July 17-21

However, as long as price remains within the descending channel and below resistance level of 1.6704. I remain bearish on this pair and will be looking to sell at a better price.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Naira

Naira Appreciates to N1,136/$ Officially, N1,050/$ Parallel Market

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naira

The Nigerian Naira appreciated to N1,136 against the United States Dollar at the official market and rose to N1,050 at the parallel market.

At the official foreign exchange market, data from the FMDQ Exchange revealed that the Naira strengthened by 6.1 percent or N69 from its previous rate of N1,205/$ recorded on Friday to N1,136/$ on Monday.

This surge underscores the effectiveness of recent foreign exchange directives implemented by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), aimed at stabilizing the Naira and bolstering liquidity in the market.

At the parallel market, the Naira appreciated to N1,050 against the Dollar, reflecting an improvement in the currency’s value in informal trading circles.

This resurgence has brought renewed hope to traders and businesses operating in the informal sector, as they anticipate further strengthening of the Naira in the coming days.

The improved exchange rate follows a series of strategic interventions by the CBN to address foreign exchange challenges and stabilize the Naira.

The positive momentum in the forex market has been further reinforced by a surge in total inflows into the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM), which increased by 41.7 percent to $3.75 billion in March, compared to $2.64 billion in February.

Commenting on the recent developments, analysts at Afrinvest expressed optimism about the continued strengthening of the Naira, attributing it to the CBN’s intensified efforts to bolster liquidity in the market.

They anticipate further improvements in the exchange rate as the apex bank maintains its proactive stance on forex management.

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Forex

Indian Rupee Plummets to Record Low Against Dollar Amid Regional Turbulence

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Indian Rupee

The Indian rupee found itself on a downward spiral on Tuesday as it plummeted to a historic low against the US dollar amidst regional economic turbulence.

The currency dropped by as much as 0.1% to 83.5350 per dollar, breaching its previous intraday low of 83.50 set in November, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Simultaneously, Indian stocks followed suit with the S&P BSE Sensex Index trading down by 0.5%.

A cocktail of factors contributed to the somber mood pervading regional markets. Notably, a drop in the value of the yuan, prompted by China’s unexpected decision to weaken its currency defense, added to the prevailing risk-off sentiment.

Also, simmering tensions in the Middle East raised fears of potential disruptions in oil supply, further exacerbating concerns.

Given that crude oil constitutes India’s largest import, the prospect of costlier oil poses a significant risk to the economy, particularly in the run-up to national elections.

Traders reacted swiftly to the weakening rupee, speculating that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) may utilize its substantial foreign exchange reserves to intervene in the market and curb volatility.

Despite the rupee’s decline, it stood out as one of the better-performing emerging market currencies on Tuesday, experiencing a milder depreciation compared to counterparts like Indonesia’s rupiah and the South Korean won.

Kunal Sodhani, Vice President at Shinhan Bank, commented on the situation, stating, “Considering India’s FX reserves at an all-time high, the RBI may use this ammunition to curtail any kind of excessive volatility.”

He pointed to various factors, including the weakening of the Chinese yuan, the strengthening of the dollar index, and outflows from domestic equities, as exerting pressure on the Indian rupee.

While the rupee’s downward trajectory underscores the challenges facing India’s economy amidst regional uncertainties, the presence of robust foreign exchange reserves offers a glimmer of hope for stability.

However, as geopolitical tensions persist and global economic dynamics evolve, policymakers and market participants alike are bracing themselves for continued volatility, navigating the uncertain terrain of the international financial landscape with caution.

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Naira

Naira Hits Eight-Month High at 1,120/$ Amidst Central Bank Reforms

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New Naira Notes

The Nigerian Naira has surged to an eight-month high of 1,120 against the US dollar on the parallel market, commonly referred to as the black market.

This significant appreciation comes on the heels of a series of foreign exchange (FX) reforms initiated by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), which have effectively unlocked dollar liquidity within the economy.

According to data compiled from online platforms and street traders, the current exchange rate reflects a gain of 62.95% for the Naira against the dollar compared to its level of 1,825 per dollar in February 2024.

Market sentiment suggests that the recent strengthening of the Naira can be attributed to a subdued demand for the US dollar, coupled with ample liquidity in the market, particularly during the holiday period.

Despite a decline in external reserves, Nigeria’s currency strengthened to 1,230.61 per dollar on the official FX market before the holidays.

The recent uptick in the Naira’s value follows the CBN’s decision to review the exchange rate for Bureau De Change (BDC) Operators to 1,101 per dollar from 1,251 per dollar.

Also, the CBN announced plans to sell $15.88 million to 1,588 eligible BDCs, further bolstering dollar liquidity in the market.

The CBN’s proactive approach to FX management, including the resolution of foreign exchange backlogs amounting to US$7 billion, has instilled confidence among investors and market participants.

Furthermore, the apex bank’s commitment to implementing reforms aimed at enhancing transparency and efficiency in the FX market has yielded positive results.

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