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The Bank of Canada Shows It’s the Federal Reserve of the North

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  • The Bank of Canada Shows It’s the Federal Reserve of the North

A North American central bank hiking rates in the face of strong job growth and deteriorating core inflation rates, citing temporary factors for the drop-off in price pressures.

No, it’s not Janet Yellen’s Federal Reserve — it’s Stephen Poloz’s Bank of Canada.

On Wednesday, the Bank of Canada delivered its first interest-rate hike in almost seven years, becoming the first Group of Seven central bank to join the Fed in policy normalization, the first concrete step toward global monetary policy convergence. And it followed the Fed in more ways than one.

The Bank of Canada now sees inflation averaging 1.6 percent, down three tenths of a percentage point from its April Monetary Policy Report. At the same time, the bank estimates economic slack will be eliminated by the end of 2017, sooner than it had anticipated three months ago. That’s an echo of the Fed’s move in June, which saw officials mark down their forecast for the unemployment rate forecasts and core PCE inflation, its preferred gauge of price pressures.

For Janet Yellen, Verizon has been the big headache in suppressing inflation. Stephen Poloz and Canadian policymakers attributed the shortfall to sluggish food inflation, measures by the Ontario government to reduce the cost of electricity and a significant slowdown in auto price gains.

Core Measures

The bank’s three core measures of inflation were designed by officials in part to filter out exactly these sector-specific shocks. However, they’ve proven unable to fully do so, contributing to a downward trend in all three metrics since early 2016.

The bank’s Monetary Policy Report even alluded to an Amazon effect potentially contributing to subdued inflation globally, just as Chicago Fed President Charles Evans did in late June.

“The rise of e-commerce may also have heightened retail competition, by enabling retailers to compete across national borders, thus changing pricing behavior and making prices more sensitive to new information and global market conditions,” the bank’s Governing Council wrote in its opening statement before Wednesday’s press conference.

Steeled Resolve

Canada’s best quarter for employment gains since 2010 and broadening economic growth bolstered the central bank’s confidence in the outlook and steeled its resolve to increase interest rates. As such, the Fed and Bank of Canada are expected to lead the charge away from the zero lower bound. That’s after an onslaught of hawkish rhetoric from top Canadian monetary policymakers over the past month.

Historically, the two central banks’ policy rates have moved in sync. However, a Canadian credit cycle that’s completely divorced from that of its largest trading partner in the wake of the financial crisis, a weakened link between U.S. demand and Canadian exports, and the plummet in oil prices starting in mid-2014 has prompted policy to decouple this decade.

The Bank of Canada and Fed have different government-appointed directives: the U.S. central bank has a dual mandate for full employment and stable inflation; its Canadian counterpart targets only the latter. At this juncture, both are fundamentally relying heavily on unobservable constructs to justify the removal of monetary stimulus in the face of subdued price pressures.

Yellen still puts faith in the Phillips Curve, which suggests that an unemployment rate that sinks beyond a sustainable level will foster higher wages and price pressures broadly.

Poloz’s basis for tightening rests upon his outlook for the output gap — the cumulative difference between the central bank’s estimate of how fast the economy can grow and how fast it has — buttressed by the notion that central bank policy changes influence economic activity with a lag. A zero output gap is consistent with an economy that’s operating at full capacity with stable inflationary pressures.

“It is the output gap which guides the pressures on inflation through time,” the governor said in the press conference following his first rate decision in 2013.

While using slightly different compasses, Poloz and Yellen have the same rationale in mind: easing up on monetary accommodation now — despite the current lack of success on their government-appointed inflation mandates — will help avoid a situation in which they fall behind the curve and need to tighten policy swiftly to tamp down on inflation, sending their respective economies into recession.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Crude Oil

Brent Crude Hits $88.42, WTI Climbs to $83.36 on Dollar Index Dip

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Brent crude oil - Investors King

Oil prices surged as Brent crude oil appreciated to $88.42 a barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed to $83.36 a barrel.

The uptick in prices comes as the U.S. dollar index dipped to its lowest level in over a week, prompting investors to shift their focus from geopolitical tensions to global economic conditions.

The weakening of the U.S. dollar, a key factor influencing oil prices, provided a boost to dollar-denominated commodities like oil. As the dollar index fell, demand for oil from investors holding other currencies increased, leading to the rise in prices.

Investors also found support in euro zone data indicating a robust expansion in business activity, with April witnessing the fastest pace of growth in nearly a year.

Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, noted that the market had been under pressure due to sluggish growth in the euro zone, making any signs of improvement supportive for oil prices.

Market participants are increasingly looking beyond geopolitical tensions and focusing on economic indicators and supply-and-demand dynamics.

Despite initial concerns regarding tensions between Israel and Iran and uncertainties surrounding China’s economic performance, the market sentiment remained optimistic, buoyed by expectations of steady oil demand.

Analysts anticipate the release of key economic data later in the week, including U.S. first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) figures and March’s personal consumption expenditures, which serve as the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge.

These data points are expected to provide further insights into the health of the economy and potentially impact oil prices.

Also, anticipation builds around the release of U.S. crude oil inventory data by the Energy Information Administration, scheduled for Wednesday.

Preliminary reports suggest an increase in crude oil inventories alongside a decrease in refined product stockpiles, reflecting ongoing dynamics in the oil market.

As oil prices continue their upward trajectory, investors remain vigilant, monitoring economic indicators and geopolitical developments for further cues on the future direction of the market.

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Crude Oil

NNPC and Newcross Set to Boost Awoba Unit Field Production to 12,000 bpd

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NNPC - Investors King

NNPC and Newcross Exploration and Production Ltd are working together to increase production at the Awoba Unit Field to 12,000 barrels per day (bpd) within the next 30 days.

This initiative, aimed at optimizing hydrocarbon asset production, follows the recent restart of operations at the Awoba field, which commenced this month after a hiatus.

The field, located in the mangrove swamp south of Port Harcourt, Rivers State, ceased production in 2021 due to logistical challenges and crude oil theft.

The joint venture between NNPC and Newcross is poised to bolster national revenue and meet OPEC production quotas, contributing significantly to Nigeria’s energy sector.

Mele Kyari, NNPC’s Group Chief Executive Officer, attributes this achievement to a conducive operating environment fostered by the administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

The endeavor underscores a collective effort involving stakeholders from various sectors, including staff, operators, host communities, and security agencies, aimed at revitalizing Nigeria’s oil and gas sector.

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Gold

Gold Prices Slide Below $2,300 as Investors Digest Fed’s Rate Outlook

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gold bars - Investors King

Amidst a backdrop of global economic shifts and geopolitical recalibration, gold prices dipped below the $2,300 price level.

The decline comes as investors carefully analyse signals from the Federal Reserve regarding its future interest rate policies.

After reaching record highs earlier this month, gold suffered its most daily decline in nearly two years, shedding 2.7% on Monday.

The recent retreat reflects a multifaceted landscape where concerns over escalating tensions in the Middle East have eased, coupled with indications that the Federal Reserve may maintain higher interest rates for a prolonged period.

Richard Grace, a senior currency analyst and international economist at ITC Markets, noted that tactical short-selling likely contributed to the decline, especially given the rapid surge in gold prices witnessed recently.

Despite this setback, bullion remains up approximately 15% since mid-February, supported by ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, central bank purchases, and robust demand from Chinese consumers.

The shift in focus among investors now turns toward forthcoming US economic data, including key inflation metrics favored by the Federal Reserve.

These data points are anticipated to provide further insights into the central bank’s monetary policy trajectory.

Over recent weeks, policymakers have adopted a more hawkish tone in response to consistently strong inflation reports, leading market participants to adjust their expectations regarding the timing of future interest rate adjustments.

As markets recalibrate their expectations for monetary policy, the prospect of a higher-for-longer interest rate environment poses challenges for gold, which traditionally does not offer interest-bearing returns.

Spot gold prices dropped by 1.2% to $2,298.67 an ounce, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index remaining relatively stable. Silver, palladium, and platinum also experienced declines following gold’s retreat.

The ongoing interplay between economic indicators, geopolitical developments, and central bank policies continues to shape the trajectory of precious metal markets.

While gold faces near-term headwinds, its status as a safe-haven asset and store of value ensures that it remains a focal point for investors navigating uncertain global dynamics.

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