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OPEC Sees Surplus, Lower Demand for Oil

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OPEC
  • OPEC Sees Surplus, Lower Demand for Oil

The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) yesterday said its oil production jumped in June and forecast world demand for its crude will decline next year as rivals pump more. It pointed to a market surplus next year despite an OPEC-led output cut.

Giving its first 2018 forecasts in a monthly report, the oil cartel said the world will need 32.20 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude from its members next year, down 60,000 bpd from this year.

It said its oil output in June rose above the demand forecast, led by gains in Libya and Nigeria, two members exempt from the cut aimed at eliminating excess supply. Its officials nonetheless remain upbeat on the outlook.

“We remain very optimistic (about) helping the market to rebalance itself,” OPEC Secretary-General Mohammad Barkindo said at an industry conference in Istanbul.

Oil rose above $48 a barrel yesterday as a United States (U.S.) report of falling inventories in the U.S. raised hopes that the glut is easing.

OPEC referred to an “ongoing rebalancing” of the market.

Under the supply deal, it is curbing output by about 1.2 million bpd, while Russia and other non-OPEC producers are cutting half as much, until March next year.

The group’s production has increased in recent weeks, in part due to the recovery in Libya and Nigeria, which were exempted from the supply cut as domestic conflict had curbed their output.

Is the CEO and Founder of Investors King Limited. He is a seasoned foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Business Insider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and other prominent platforms. With over two decades of experience in global financial markets, Olukoya is well-recognized in the industry.

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Energy

Dangote Refinery Denies Legal Battle With NNPCL, Others, Reveals Plan to Withdraw Old Case From Court

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Dangote Refinery

Dangote Refinery has denied reports of filing a lawsuit against the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation Limited (NNPCL), Aym Shafa Limited, A. A. Rano Limited, T. Time Petroleum Limited, 2015 Petroleum Limited and Matrix Petroleum Services Limited, as widely reported.

Dangote made this known in a statement published via its official X handle on Monday.

A viral report alleging that Dangote filed a suit against the NNPCL and five other companies over the importation of petroleum products emerged online sparking a huge controversy.

Reacting to the viral report, the Group Chief Branding and Communications Officer of Dangote Group, Anthony Chiejina, via the statement denied any legal battle with the NNPC.

According to Dangote, the alleged report was an old one and would be fully and formally withdrawn when the matter comes up in court next year.

Dangote revealed that after the president’s directive, they have been in discussions with all parties involved.

Dismissing that no party has been served with court notice, Dangote emphasized that the discussions have made significant headway and there were no intentions of going to court.

The statement read, “This is an old issue that started in June and culminated in a matter being filed on September 6, 2024.

“Currently, the parties are in discussion since President Bola Tinubu’s directive on Crude Oil and Refined products sales in Naira Initiative, which was approved by the Federal Executive Council (FEC).

“We have made tremendous progress in that regard and events have overtaken this development. No party has been served with court processes and there is no intention of doing so. We have agreed to put a halt to the proceedings.

“It is important to stress that no orders have been made and there are no adverse effects on any party. We understand that once the matter comes up January 2025, we would be in a position to formally withdraw the matter in court.”

Investors King reported that following Dangote’s failure to meet petroleum demand by marketers in the country, the oil dealers returned to their former mode of buying the product outside the country and shipping them into Nigeria for sale.

According to the marketers, the move was an effort to save the country from fuel scarcity which Dangote’s inability to meet the supply demand may push the country into.

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Gold

Gold Soars to Record $2,740/oz as Investors Seek Safe Haven Amid Economic Uncertainty

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gold bars - Investors King

Gold surged to a new all-time high of $2,740/oz, reflecting heightened demand by genuine buyers who are actively building positions, signaling confidence in gold’s value preservation over time.

The metal’s appeal lies in its ability to provide stability in a relativity fluid macroeconomic environment. With the U.S. election on the horizon, investors are preparing for potential market shifts, which could sustain gold’s upward momentum.

Regardless of the election outcome, expanded fiscal spending appears unavoidable. A red sweep could prioritize defense spending and traditional energy investments while a blue sweep may bring more expansive social programs and green energy investments.

Both scenarios point toward fiscal expansion, which may pressure the U.S. dollar over time, thereby enhancing the appeal of gold.

As Asian currencies remain sensitive to dollar movements, we could see increased demand for gold from these markets as investors seek value protection amidst currency fluctuations.

Gold’s strong rally could extend further toward $2,800-$2,900/oz in the coming months, especially if geopolitical risks persist or market participants anticipate slower monetary tightening.

However, periods of consolidation might occur, especially if higher bond yields temporarily reduce gold’s allure.

Still, buying interest seems well-established, with many investors adopting an accumulate-on-dips approach. If volatility remains elevated and fiscal policies continue expanding, gold’s role as a long-term store of value may solidify further, potentially paving the way for new highs.

Written by Ahmad Assiri Research Strategist at Pepperstone

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Crude Oil

Oil Prices Jump 2% as Israel Heightens Attack in Middle East

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Crude oil - Investors King

Oil prices traded 2 percent higher on Monday as the fight in the Middle East ragged on amid heightened Israel retaliation against attacks by Iran earlier this month.

Brent crude rose by $1.23 or 1.68 per cent to close at $74.29 per barrel while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was $1.34 or 1.94 per cent higher at $70.56 a barrel.

On Monday Israel reportedly attacked hospitals and shelters for displaced people in the northern Gaza Strip as it continued its fight against Palestinian militants.

International media also reported that Israel carried out targeted strikes on sites belonging to Hezbollah’s funding arm in Lebanon.

Meanwhile, the US Secretary of State, Mr Antony Blinken said the Israel ally will push for a ceasefire as he embarks on a journey to the Middle East.

According to the US State Department, the American government will be seeking to kick-start negotiations to end the Gaza war and ensure it also defuses the possibility of escalation in Lebanon.

Mr Amos Hochstein, a US envoy, will hold talks with Lebanese officials in the Lebanon capital, Beirut on conditions for a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah.

Support also came from China, as the world’s largest oil importer cut its lending rate as part of efforts to stimulate the country’s economy and offer investors relief.

This development will soothe worries after data showed that China’s economy grew at the slowest pace since early 2023 in the third quarter, fuelling growing concerns about oil demand.

The head of the International Energy Agency (IEA), Mr Fatih Birol on Monday said China’s oil demand growth is expected to remain weak in 2025 despite recent stimulus measures from the government.

He said this is because the world’s second-largest economy has continued to accelerate its Electric Vehicles (EV) fleet and this is causing oil demand to grow at a slower pace.

Meanwhile, Saudi’s state oil company, Aramco remains fairly bullish in comparison as its Chief Executive Officer (CEO), Mr Amin Nasser said there is more demand for chemical projects on the sidelines of the Singapore International Energy Week conference.

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