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Analysts Bet on Lafarge, Forte Oil, Others for High Returns

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  • Analysts Bet on Lafarge, Forte Oil, Others for High Returns

Investors looking for high returns on investment should include Lafarge Africa, Forte Oil and Julius Berger Nigeria Plc in their portfolios, investment analysts have said.

Investment advisory reports by Afrinvest Securities and GTI Securities-two leading investment and stock broking firms, said Lafarge Africa, Forte Oil and Julius Berger Nigeria have potential for high returns in the period ahead.

Afrinvest Securities, which placed a buy ticker on Lafarge Africa, said the cement company has an upside potential of 42.4 per cent, a direct reference to extent of capital gain that could accrue to investors in the company.

According to Afrinvest, recent debt restructuring, energy source diversification and Nigeria price action remain positive drivers of forward earnings for Lafarge Africa.

Analysts noted that Lafarge Africa’s last audited report comfortably outperformed analysts’ estimates on key earnings metrics pointing out that earnings had also stayed resilient in 2017.

Lafarge Africa grew sales by 55.1 per cent and reversed its negative bottom-line with a pre-tax profit of N9.45 billion in the first quarter of 2017 as the cement company ramped up the use of alternative and logistics efficiency to drive growth.

Key extracts of the interim report and accounts of Lafarge Africa for the three-month ended March 31, 2017 showed that sales rose to N81.31 billion in first quarter 2017 as against N52.42 billion recorded in comparable period of 2016. Gross profit jumped by 168.5 per cent from N7.78 billion in first quarter 2016 to N20.89 billion in first quarter 2017.

Compared with pre-tax loss of N2.22 billion in first quarter 2016, the cement company recorded a pre-tax profit of N9.45 billion within the first three months of 2017. Profit after tax also improved significantly to N5.16 billion in first quarter 2017 compared with net loss of N1.87 billion in corresponding period of 2016. Earnings per share thus reversed from a loss of 19 kobo in 2016 to a positive of 92 kobo in 2017.

The report also showed improvement in the balance sheet of the cement group. Total assets rose to N523.76 billion by March 2017 from N502.49 billion recorded by the period ended December 31, 2016. The balance sheet growth was driven by improvements in both fixed and current assets. Total equity funds also increased from N248.95 billion by December 2016 to N263.38 billion by March 2017.

Another investment advisory report by GTI Securities highlighted Forte Oil and Julius Berger Nigeria as two of the best stocks for investors looking for high returns within a 12-month period.

According to the report, Forte Oil has potential to generate capital appreciation of about 250 per cent with an expected target price of N170.41 by the end of the period as against its current price at the stock market.

The report also indicated that Julius Berger Nigeria could post a return of about 117.80 per cent within the period as the share price of the construction firm is expected to rise from its current level to close the period at about N70.

Analysts noted that the 414 megawatts Geregu Power Plant of Forte Oil has started to contribute significantly to the group’s top-line as power generation contribution to revenue increased by 118.61 per cent year-on-year and accounted for 19.79 per cent of total revenue in first quarter of 2017 compared to 8.39 per cent of total revenue in comparable period of 2016.

Forte Oil has 51 per cent stake in a 414 megawatts gas-fired independent power plant, which is selling power to the Nigerian power grid on a guaranteed basis.

“This trend is expected to continue with the power generation business further boosting revenue growth especially with the present drive by the government to ensure that power generation in the country increases. Forte Oil also has the capacity to push higher fuel and lubricants volume sales through its recent retail outlet expansion financed through its issued bonds,” GTI Securities stated.

The report noted that Julius Berger Nigeria has a huge public sector portfolio which includes several high-profile projects including permanent site of the National Institute for Legislative Studies, Abuja, new residences for presiding officers of the National Assembly, Abuja; rehabilitation and extension of Airport Expressway, Abuja; rehabilitation of Badia Roads, Lagos; Lagos–Badagry Expressway, Lagos and Lagos–Ibadan Dual Carriageway, Section 1, Lagos–Shagamu among others.

“We expect that with the focus of the government on infrastructure development a lot of the allotted N1.8 trillion, 30 per cent of the total budget for 2016, will go to ongoing projects across the country.

Is the CEO and Founder of Investors King Limited. He is a seasoned foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Business Insider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and other prominent platforms. With over two decades of experience in global financial markets, Olukoya is well-recognized in the industry.

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Energy

Tinubu’s Government to Convert Fuel Stations to CNG Outlets for Cheaper, Cleaner Energy

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The Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, has revealed President Bola Tinubu’s plans to convert fuel stations into Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) outlets to provide Nigerians with an affordable alternative to petrol.

In a statement on Wednesday, while addressing State House correspondents after the Federal Executive Council (FEC) meeting, Ekpo confirmed that the President intends to expand the use of CNG across the country.

The minister emphasized that CNG is here to stay and urged Nigerians to embrace the initiative, adding that it is safe, cheaper, and environmentally friendly.

He said, “We are well aware that the President set up a Presidential Committee on the CNG to drive the CNG project. It is left for us to inform the general public that CNG has come to stay, and we have to follow that route because CNG is safe, cheaper, and protects the environment.

“It is important to note that when you are using CNG, you save a lot of money, a litre of fuel can go for N1000, but you get CNG at N200 per litre, which saves you N800.

“With the passion of Mr President, the push that he has given to us, we’ll try to drive the CNG programme to reach the nooks and crannies of this country.

“We have to take advantage of the natural resources, gas, that God has endowed us with.

“What we produce in our country is more than enough for us to use for CNG; and of course, you know, we are exporting to so many other countries.”

This development follows a recent CNG vehicle explosion at the NIPCO CNG station on Eyean, Auchi Road, Edo State, which resulted in multiple injuries and damage to vehicles in the vicinity.

Fortunately, no deaths were recorded.

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Crude Oil

Large US Crude Inventories Weaken Oil Prices

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Oil prices fell on Wednesday after data showed that US crude inventories rose as traders continued to consider the conflict in the Middle East.

Brent crude oil, against which Nigerian oil is priced, shed $1.08, or 1.42 per cent to settle at $74.96 per barrel while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil dipped by 97 cents, or 1.35 per cent to $70.77.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported an inventory increase of 5.5 million barrels for the week to October 18.

The inventory change followed an American Petroleum Institute (API) estimate of a build totalling 1.64 million barrels for the reported period. It also compared with a draw of 2.2 million barrels for the previous week, as reported by the EIA last Thursday.

In petrol, the American authority estimated an inventory build of 900,000 barrels for the week to October 18, with production averaging 10 million barrels daily.

This compared with an inventory decline of 2.2 million barrels for the previous week when petrol production averaged 9.3 million barrels daily.

Market analysts noted that the crude inventory build is due to the recent hurricane in the US which curtailed production in the largest oil producer in the world.

Pressure also came as the US dollar index rose to its highest point in late July.

A strong US Dollar can hurt demand for oil, which is priced in the American currency, as it makes it more expensive for holders of other currencies.

The market also continued to monitor developments and concerns over potential oil supply risk from conflict in the Middle East.

On Wednesday, there was no tangible outcome from the US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s latest visit to Israel.

Israel continues to pound both Gaza and Lebanon, and most recently it killed the next in line to the top spot at Hezbollah, Hashem Safieddine, sparking expectations of retaliation.

Mr Blinken pushed on Wednesday for a halt to fighting between Israel and militant groups Hamas and Hezbollah, but heavy air strikes carried out by Israel on a Lebanese port city Tyre showed that there is no calm in sight.

Market participants expect the conflict to go on longer and have taken advantage of the events unfolding to price longer.

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Gold

Gold Continues Gains Amid Political Uncertainty in the US

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Written by Samer Hasn, Senior Market Analyst at XS

Gold continues to reap historic gains today, touching $2,758 per ounce for the first time.

Gold’s rise comes amid heightened political uncertainty, driven by the approaching U.S. presidential election and the tightening poll results between the candidates. The absence of any near prospect for a ceasefire on any of the Middle East’s raging fronts also keeps the yellow metal’s appeal high.

While gold’s continued rise despite the strength of the US dollar and rising Treasury yields seems to reinforce the hypothesis that this rise is driven by increasing uncertainty rather than hope for lower interest rates.

With less than two weeks to go until the presidential election, we see no clear lead for either candidate over the other. Meanwhile, Kamala Harris is 1.7 percentage points ahead of Republican candidate Donald Trump in the average of the polls, according to FiveThirtyEight.

This closeness in the polls may reduce bets on risky assets, which may be volatile sharply after the results are announced, and at the same time, it may boost demand for safe assets.

During the previous two sessions, the largest physical gold exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), attracted net positive inflows of about $580 million, while the iShares Gold Trust (IAU) recorded about $82 million in inflows during the same period.

However, Wall Street does not seem to share the same views. The Wall Street Journal talked about the increasing bets by hedge funds on the possibility of a Donald Trump victory. Some are betting on further strengthening of the dollar as Trump imposes tariffs and reignites trade wars.

This will fuel inflation, which in turn is reflected in the rise in long-term Treasury yields, which reflect expectations of future interest rate hikes.

This in turn may be a negative factor that pressures gold to curb its gains, but in contrast, the International Monetary Fund sees high uncertainty about the future. The trade war and tariffs would disrupt global supply chains and hinder growth in the medium term.

Further, in the Middle East, we have seen increasing talk from the US administration about pushing for a ceasefire, especially with Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s visit to Israel. However, I do not believe that this will lead to any tangible progress towards stopping the war on any of the regional fronts.

Egypt has presented a small proposal for a temporary ceasefire in Gaza. However, this proposal does not seem to lead to anything, especially since the far-right ministers in Israel are opposing it, according to what Israeli officials told Axios earlier this week.

This is regarding a temporary ceasefire, while reaching an agreement for a permanent ceasefire and ending the war will be even more difficult. Hamas also may not accept the return of the hostages unless the war stops, according to The New York Times.

As for Lebanon, Israel has sent to US the conditions for ending its war there, which are believed to be unacceptable to Lebanon because they constitute a violation of sovereignty, according to Axios as well. The conditions include granting Israel the freedom to carry out military operations inside Lebanon.

In addition, Nicholas Kristof says in an opinion piece in The New York Times that he is skeptical about capitalizing on the “opportunity” to stop the war after the killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar due to the lack of significant pressure from the US administration on Israel. He also believes that the momentum around this opportunity may fade in the coming days as the escalation worsens if Israel attacks Iran, prompting the latter to carry out a counter-response.

Instead of seeking to reach an agreement to stop the war, we see growing momentum inside Israel for the idea of ​​resettling the Gaza Strip, which contradicts any peace efforts. The Wall Street Journal mentioned further promote for this idea by members of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party, which describes itself as liberal, and this comes in conjunction with the escalating rhetoric of the extreme religious right about resettlement.

Accordingly, I believe that the increasing talk about the hope that a calm is approaching in this regional war is exaggerated and it will diminish with the coming rounds of escalation.

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