Forex

Forex Weekly Outlook July 10-14

Published

7 years ago

July 9, 2017

Forex Weekly Outlook July 10-14

The US economy added 222,000 jobs in June to sustain the ongoing solid labor market. However, the unemployment rate rose to 4.4 percent from 4.3 percent, while the wage growth rate climbed just 0.2 percent, below the 0.3 percent predicted by most experts. Suggesting that while employers were creating jobs, they were not increasing wages as expected.

Also, even though, data showed services sector expanded faster than projected in June and that the odds of the Federal Reserve raising rates have surged, the dollar remains unattractive as both the uncertainty surrounding North Korea and President Donald Trump’s inability to push through with tax cut and health care reform with the parliament continued to weigh on investors’ confidence and optimism.

In the U.K, the economy has started showing signs of slowdown after data showed services sector expanded marginally from 53.8 to 53.4 in June, manufacturing sector slowed to a 3-month low of 54.3 in the same month and consumer-confidence fell to a year low, while housing price increased at the slowest pace in four years.

All these figures showed slowing consumer spending and low investments in the country even with record low exchange rate, the weak currency has not done enough to boost business activities.

In Japan, the economy continues to grow, however, weak inflation rate and low wages are disrupting Bank of Japan’s interest rate strategy.

Forcing the central bank to lower its inflation rate forecast and maintained current stimulus level against investors’ rates hike expectation.

Also, in a surprise turn of event, Shinzo Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party was defeated in Tokyo Assembly election. Sending signal that the people are tired of Abe’s strategy, instead, the people want the administration to focus on boosting the economy.

Overall, the global economy has picked up. However, the uncertainty in the U.S, U.K and the rest of the world continue to weigh on growth. The Euro-area remains strong and the Euro-single currency is expected to continue its run against most currencies this week.

This week NZDCAD, GBPCAD, and CADJPY top my list.

NZDCAD

In May, I mentioned the potential of this pair following Canada’s growing economic data. But the fall in global oil prices and uncertainty surrounding trade agreement between the US and Canada impacted the loonie outlook against the Kiwi.

However, the expected rates hike from the top central banks including the Bank of Canada has bolstered Canadian dollar attractiveness against emerging currencies like the Kiwi.

Technically, the pair has lost 408 pips since peaking at 0.9756, and last week it broke key support level of 0.9382 after data showed that the Canadian economy added 45,300 jobs in June. This is three times the 11,400 jobs projected by experts and improved the unemployment rate to 6.5 percent from 6.6 percent.

Therefore, the renewed interest in Canada’s economy will continue to aid the loonie attractiveness as investors increase their bond holding ahead of rates hike. While the New Zealand economy along other emerging economies will struggle with an increase in fund outflow for the remaining half of this year. Hence, the reason I remain bearish on the pair with 0.9298 as the target, a sustained break should open up 0.9161 support levels.

GBPCAD

The GBP plunged against the Canadian dollar on Friday, extending its loss further. This is because the U.K. economy has started slowdown as the political uncertainty in the region worsen after Theresa May failed to win majority votes in June.

On the other hand, the Canadian dollar gained from growing labor market and improving manufacturing sector.

Technically, since 5th of May, this pair has plunged by 1289 pips as shown by the descending channel above. This week, I will expect the Canadian dollar to continue its gain against the pound sterling towards our first target, 1.6497. And expect a sustained break to attract enough sellers to open up 1.6353 targets.

Weekly Recap

CADJPY

Three weeks ago, I mentioned this pair and explained that the hawkish view of the Bank of Canada would bolster the loonie outlook against the Japanese yen after Haruhiko Kuroda led Bank of Japan announced it will maintain current stimulus level. Since then our target 1 was hit two weeks ago at 86.36, but with the continuous gain of the Canadian dollar, I will expect a sustained break of 88.90 resistance levels to open up 90.80 targets 3.

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Samed Olukoya

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Naira

Black Market Dollar to Naira Exchange Rate Today 17th May 2024

The black market, also known as the parallel market or Aboki fx, US dollar to Nigerian Naira exchange rate as of May 17th, 2024 stood at 1 USD to ₦1,540.

Published

1 day ago

May 17, 2024

Samed Olukoya

The black market, also known as the parallel market or Aboki fx, US dollar to Nigerian Naira exchange rate as of May 17th, 2024 stood at 1 USD to ₦1,540.

Recent data from Bureau De Change (BDC) reveals that buyers in the Lagos Parallel Market purchased a dollar for ₦1,560 and sold it at ₦1,550 on Thursday, May 16th, 2024.

This indicates a slight improvement in the Naira exchange rate when compared to today’s rate.

The black market rate plays a crucial role for investors and participants, offering a real-time reflection of currency dynamics outside official or regulated exchange channels.

Monitoring these rates provides insights into the immediate value of the Naira against the dollar, guiding decision-making processes for individuals and businesses alike.

It’s important to note that while the black market offers valuable insights, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not officially recognize its existence.

The CBN advises individuals engaging in forex transactions to utilize official banking channels, emphasizing the importance of compliance with regulatory frameworks.

How much is dollar to naira today in the black market

For those navigating the currency exchange landscape, here are the latest figures for the black market exchange rate:

Buying Rate: ₦1,540
Selling Rate: ₦1,530

As economic conditions continue to evolve, staying informed about currency exchange rates empowers individuals to make informed financial decisions. While the black market provides immediate insights, adherence to regulatory guidelines ensures stability and transparency in forex transactions.

Forex

SEC and ABCON Explore Collaboration for ‘Kolectyomoni’ Digital Currency Platform

Published

1 day ago

May 17, 2024

Samed Olukoya

The Association of Bureaux De Change Operators of Nigeria (ABCON) has initiated talks with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to explore collaboration on its upcoming digital currency market platform, ‘Kolectyomoni’.

This move was underscored during an official visit by ABCON representatives to the newly appointed Director General of the SEC, Dr. Timi Agama. Aminu Gwadabe, President of ABCON, conveyed the association’s eagerness to engage with SEC to ensure the smooth operation of its digital currency platform.

Gwadabe emphasized that ABCON recognizes the regulatory oversight of SEC in the financial sector and seeks its guidance to navigate the complexities of the digital currency market.

He pointed out that while digital currencies hold immense potential for financial inclusion and innovation, they also present regulatory challenges that require collaborative efforts between industry stakeholders and regulatory bodies.

Highlighting the significance of embracing digital currencies, Gwadabe noted, “The future of BDC’s business is digital currency.”

He stressed the growing adoption of digital currencies among Nigerians, citing statistics that reveal a rising number of participants in the digital currency ecosystem, with a substantial market size of $9 billion annually.

In response, Dr. Timi Agama expressed SEC’s openness to support and facilitate the growth of the digital currency sector in Nigeria.

He acknowledged ABCON’s initiative in launching the ‘Kolectyomoni’ platform and assured of SEC’s cooperation in providing regulatory guidance and oversight.

Agama reaffirmed SEC’s commitment to fostering innovation in the financial sector while ensuring investor protection and market integrity.

He underscored the importance of collaboration between regulators and industry players to develop robust frameworks that foster innovation and safeguard against potential risks.

Furthermore, Agama encouraged ABCON to finalize the development of the ‘Kolectyomoni’ digital currency platform and submit it to the SEC for thorough review and assessment by the technical team.

He emphasized the need for timely regulatory oversight to address emerging trends in the digital currency market and maintain regulatory compliance.

Naira

Black Market Dollar to Naira Exchange Rate Today 16th May 2024

The black market, also known as the parallel market or Aboki fx, US dollar to Nigerian Naira exchange rate as of May 16th, 2024 stood at 1 USD to ₦1,560.

Published

2 days ago

May 16, 2024

Samed Olukoya

The black market, also known as the parallel market or Aboki fx, US dollar to Nigerian Naira exchange rate as of May 16th, 2024 stood at 1 USD to ₦1,560.

Recent data from Bureau De Change (BDC) reveals that buyers in the Lagos Parallel Market purchased a dollar for ₦1,530 and sold it at ₦1,520 on Wednesday, May 15th, 2024.

This indicates a decline in the Naira exchange rate compared to the current rate.

The black market rate plays a crucial role for investors and participants, offering a real-time reflection of currency dynamics outside official or regulated exchange channels.

Monitoring these rates provides insights into the immediate value of the Naira against the dollar, guiding decision-making processes for individuals and businesses alike.

It’s important to note that while the black market offers valuable insights, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not officially recognize its existence.

The CBN advises individuals engaging in forex transactions to utilize official banking channels, emphasizing the importance of compliance with regulatory frameworks.