Forex

Forex Weekly Outlook July 10-14

Published

7 years ago

July 9, 2017

Forex Weekly Outlook July 10-14

The US economy added 222,000 jobs in June to sustain the ongoing solid labor market. However, the unemployment rate rose to 4.4 percent from 4.3 percent, while the wage growth rate climbed just 0.2 percent, below the 0.3 percent predicted by most experts. Suggesting that while employers were creating jobs, they were not increasing wages as expected.

Also, even though, data showed services sector expanded faster than projected in June and that the odds of the Federal Reserve raising rates have surged, the dollar remains unattractive as both the uncertainty surrounding North Korea and President Donald Trump’s inability to push through with tax cut and health care reform with the parliament continued to weigh on investors’ confidence and optimism.

In the U.K, the economy has started showing signs of slowdown after data showed services sector expanded marginally from 53.8 to 53.4 in June, manufacturing sector slowed to a 3-month low of 54.3 in the same month and consumer-confidence fell to a year low, while housing price increased at the slowest pace in four years.

All these figures showed slowing consumer spending and low investments in the country even with record low exchange rate, the weak currency has not done enough to boost business activities.

In Japan, the economy continues to grow, however, weak inflation rate and low wages are disrupting Bank of Japan’s interest rate strategy.

Forcing the central bank to lower its inflation rate forecast and maintained current stimulus level against investors’ rates hike expectation.

Also, in a surprise turn of event, Shinzo Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party was defeated in Tokyo Assembly election. Sending signal that the people are tired of Abe’s strategy, instead, the people want the administration to focus on boosting the economy.

Overall, the global economy has picked up. However, the uncertainty in the U.S, U.K and the rest of the world continue to weigh on growth. The Euro-area remains strong and the Euro-single currency is expected to continue its run against most currencies this week.

This week NZDCAD, GBPCAD, and CADJPY top my list.

NZDCAD

In May, I mentioned the potential of this pair following Canada’s growing economic data. But the fall in global oil prices and uncertainty surrounding trade agreement between the US and Canada impacted the loonie outlook against the Kiwi.

However, the expected rates hike from the top central banks including the Bank of Canada has bolstered Canadian dollar attractiveness against emerging currencies like the Kiwi.

Technically, the pair has lost 408 pips since peaking at 0.9756, and last week it broke key support level of 0.9382 after data showed that the Canadian economy added 45,300 jobs in June. This is three times the 11,400 jobs projected by experts and improved the unemployment rate to 6.5 percent from 6.6 percent.

Therefore, the renewed interest in Canada’s economy will continue to aid the loonie attractiveness as investors increase their bond holding ahead of rates hike. While the New Zealand economy along other emerging economies will struggle with an increase in fund outflow for the remaining half of this year. Hence, the reason I remain bearish on the pair with 0.9298 as the target, a sustained break should open up 0.9161 support levels.

GBPCAD

The GBP plunged against the Canadian dollar on Friday, extending its loss further. This is because the U.K. economy has started slowdown as the political uncertainty in the region worsen after Theresa May failed to win majority votes in June.

On the other hand, the Canadian dollar gained from growing labor market and improving manufacturing sector.

Technically, since 5th of May, this pair has plunged by 1289 pips as shown by the descending channel above. This week, I will expect the Canadian dollar to continue its gain against the pound sterling towards our first target, 1.6497. And expect a sustained break to attract enough sellers to open up 1.6353 targets.

Weekly Recap

CADJPY

Three weeks ago, I mentioned this pair and explained that the hawkish view of the Bank of Canada would bolster the loonie outlook against the Japanese yen after Haruhiko Kuroda led Bank of Japan announced it will maintain current stimulus level. Since then our target 1 was hit two weeks ago at 86.36, but with the continuous gain of the Canadian dollar, I will expect a sustained break of 88.90 resistance levels to open up 90.80 targets 3.

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Samed Olukoya

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Naira

Dollar to Naira Black Market Today, April 25th, 2024

As of April 25th, 2024, the exchange rate for the US dollar to the Nigerian Naira stands at 1 USD to 1,300 NGN in the black market, also referred to as the parallel market or Aboki fx.

Published

3 hours ago

April 25, 2024

Samed Olukoya

Naira to Dollar Exchange- Investors King Rate - Investors King

As of April 25th, 2024, the exchange rate for the US dollar to the Nigerian Naira stands at 1 USD to 1,300 NGN in the black market, also referred to as the parallel market or Aboki fx.

For those engaging in currency transactions in the Lagos Parallel Market (Black Market), buyers purchase a dollar for N1,260 and sell it at N1,250 on Wednesday, April 24th, 2024 based on information from Bureau De Change (BDC).

Meaning, the Naira exchange rate declined when compared to today’s rate below.

This black market rate signifies the value at which individuals can trade their dollars for Naira outside the official or regulated exchange channels.

Investors and participants closely monitor these parallel market rates for a more immediate reflection of currency dynamics.

How Much is Dollar to Naira Today in the Black Market?

Kindly be aware that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not acknowledge the existence of the parallel market, commonly referred to as the black market.

The CBN has advised individuals seeking to participate in Forex transactions to utilize official banking channels.

Black Market Dollar to Naira Exchange Rate

Buying Rate: N1,300
Selling Rate: N1,290

Naira

Dollar to Naira Black Market Today, April 24th, 2024

As of April 24th, 2024, the exchange rate for the US dollar to the Nigerian Naira stands at 1 USD to 1,260 NGN in the black market, also referred to as the parallel market or Aboki fx.

Published

1 day ago

April 24, 2024

Samed Olukoya

As of April 24th, 2024, the exchange rate for the US dollar to the Nigerian Naira stands at 1 USD to 1,260 NGN in the black market, also referred to as the parallel market or Aboki fx.

For those engaging in currency transactions in the Lagos Parallel Market (Black Market), buyers purchase a dollar for N1,250 and sell it at N1,240 on Tuesday, April 23rd, 2024 based on information from Bureau De Change (BDC).

Meaning, the Naira exchange rate declined slightly when compared to today’s rate below.

This black market rate signifies the value at which individuals can trade their dollars for Naira outside the official or regulated exchange channels.

Investors and participants closely monitor these parallel market rates for a more immediate reflection of currency dynamics.

How Much is Dollar to Naira Today in the Black Market?

Kindly be aware that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not acknowledge the existence of the parallel market, commonly referred to as the black market.

The CBN has advised individuals seeking to participate in Forex transactions to utilize official banking channels.

Black Market Dollar to Naira Exchange Rate

Buying Rate: N1,260
Selling Rate: N1,250

Naira

Nigeria’s Naira Dips 5.3% Against Dollar, Raises Concerns Over Reserve Levels

Published

1 day ago

April 24, 2024

Samed Olukoya

Nigerian Naira depreciated by 5.3% against the US dollar as concerns over declining foreign reserves raise questions about the central bank’s ability to sustain liquidity.

The local currency has now declined for the third consecutive day since the Naira retreated from its three-month high on Friday shortly after Bloomberg pointed out that the Naira gains were inversely proportional to foreign reserves’ growth.

According to data from Lagos-based FMDQ, the naira’s value dropped precipitously, halting its recent impressive performance.

The unofficial market saw an even steeper decline of 6%, extending the currency’s retreat over the past three trading days to a staggering 17%.

Abubakar Muhammed, Chief Executive of Forward Marketing Bureau de Change Ltd., expressed concerns over the sharp decline, highlighting the insufficient supply of dollars in the market.

Muhammed noted that despite a 27% increase in traded volume at the foreign exchange market on Monday, the supply remained inadequate, forcing the naira to soften further while excess demand shifted to the unofficial market.

The dwindling foreign exchange reserves have been a cause for alarm, with Nigeria’s gross dollar reserves steadily declining for 17 consecutive days to reach $32 billion as of April 19, the lowest level since September 2017.

This worrisome trend has raised questions about the adequacy of dollar inflows to rebuild reserves, especially after the central bank settled overdue dollar obligations earlier in the year.

Samir Gadio, Head of Africa Strategy at Standard Chartered Bank, pointed out that while the naira had been supported by onshore dollar selling, the rally was likely overextended.

Gadio warned that the emergence of a dislocation in the market, with domestic participants selling dollars at increasingly lower spot levels was unsustainable and necessitated a correction.

The central bank’s efforts to stabilize the naira have been evident with interventions aimed at improving liquidity.

However, the effectiveness of these measures remains uncertain, particularly as the central bank offered dollars to bureau de change operators at a rate 17% below the official rate tracked by FMDQ.

Analysts, including Ayodeji Dawodu from Banctrust Investment Bank, foresee further challenges ahead, predicting that the naira will likely stabilize around 1,500 against the dollar by year-end.

Dawodu emphasized the importance of stabilizing the currency to attract strong foreign capital inflows, underscoring the significance of sustainable monetary policies in Nigeria’s economic recovery.

As Nigeria grapples with the repercussions of the naira’s depreciation and declining foreign reserves, policymakers face mounting pressure to implement measures that ensure stability and foster confidence in the economy.

The road ahead remains uncertain, with the fate of the naira intricately tied to Nigeria’s ability to address underlying economic vulnerabilities and bolster investor trust.