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Investors Gain N2.2tr in Bullish Run

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Stock - Investors King
  • Stock Market H1 ’17: Investors Gain N2.2tr in Bullish Run

Reflecting uptick in economic activities buoyed by improved foreign exchange inflow courtesy of oil price rebound and increased foreign investment inflow occasioned by new foreign exchange policy of the Central Bank of Nigeria, CBN, investors’ fortunes on the Nigeria Stock Exchange (NSE) soared by whopping N2.2 trillion in the first half of the year (H1’17).

Specifically, the NSE market capitalisation, which represents total value of shares on the Exchange, went up by 23.8 per cent or N2.205 trillion to N11.5 trillion at the close of trading on Friday June 30th, 2017, against N9.246 trillion at the end of December 2016.

Also when compared with the corresponding period in 2016 (H1’16) the improved return on investment for investors represented 12.7 per cent growth from N10.165 trillion at the end of June 2016.

Analysis of the current NSE data shows the impressive H1’17 performance in the following sector indices: NSE All Share Index, which measures the price movement of stocks traded on the Exchange, surged by 23.2 per cent or 6,242.86 points to 33,117.48 points at the close of business on Friday from 26,874.62 points at the beginning of the year; the NSE 30 Banking Index surged by 448.5 per cent to 1,504.44 points from 274 points; NSE Industrial Index appreciated by 21.1 points to close at 1,932.20 points from 1,595.33 points; NSE Consumer Goods Index rose by 11.6 per cent to 795 .40 points from 712.65; NSE Insurance Index rose by 9.2 per cent to 137.86 points from 126.29 points; while NSE Oil and Gas index inched up by 3.4 per cent to 323.16 points from 321.68 points.

Further review of the market for H1’17 shows that the top 10 price gainers are: May & Baker Nigeria Plc, Fidson Healthcare Plc, United Bank for Africa, UBA Plc, Cement Company of Northern Nigeria, CCNN, First Bank Nigeria, FBN Holding Plc, Presco Plc. Others include: Beta Glass, International Breweries Plc, Access Bank Plc, and PZ Cussons Nigeria Plc.

Conversely, the top ten price losers are: Forte Oil Plc, 7up Bottling Company Plc, Meyer Plc, Trans-nationwide Express Plc, Tripple Gee Plc, University Press Plc. Others include: Union Dicon Salt Plc, Guinness Nigeria Plc, John Holt Plc, and AG Leventis Plc.

Analysts’ projections

The impressive growth aligns with projections by market operators and analysts at the beginning of the year. They had projected that 2017 would be better because the economy has recovered to levels last seen in 2015/16.

For example Ayo Teriba, an economist, in his projections for 2017, said: “The brighter outlook will be premised on government holding up some of the monetary and economic policies throughout 2017. But it is reasonable to expect that they would. If they do, Nigeria can expect a resumption of growth, a moderation of inflation, a return of stability to the foreign exchange market, a convergence of exchange rates, and a sustained strengthening of the inter-bank rate.”

Also analysts at ARM Research had stated: “In our H1 17 Nigeria Strategy Report, we projected a nuanced outlook for naira equities against the backdrop of subsisting reticence of foreign and local investors towards naira equities as well as weak fundamentals. Pertinently, US interest rate normalisation, rising political concerns on the global front and FX worries in the domestic market, continue to drive foreign apathy while local support continues to dissipate as rising yields which aside from raising discount rate for equity valuations provided a significantly compelling investment outlet in the fixed income market.

“Over the second quarter of 2017, political uncertainty in Europe, swelling predictions of geo-political crisis, prospects of further rate hike by the US Federal Reserve should continue to drive cautious approach to EM/frontier market investing. Whilst domestic FX markets have seen improved liquidity since March 2017, we expect Foreign Portfolio Investment, FPI participation to be gradual with more allocation in the FI market. Complicating the outlook for equities is the elevated domestic yield environment which works to dilute local investor interest in equities.”

Meanwhile, market operators and financial analysts have expressed optimism of better market performance in their projection for the third quarter of 2017 (Q3’17). They stressed that improvement in the monetary and fiscal policies, among other factors such as global oil prices will determine the sustainability of the bullish run witnessed in the just ended H1’17.

Top five stock price gainers

Details of the stock price movement showed that May & Baker Nigeria Plc, led the cream of price gainers in H1’17, appreciating by 312.8 per cent to close last Friday at N3.88 per share from 94 kobo per share on January 3rd, 2017. It was followed by Fidson Healthcare Plc, which went up by 117.2 per cent to close at N2.28 per share from N1.28 per share. UBA Plc came third on the H1’17 price gainers’ chart, rising by 94.7 per cent to close at N7.50 per share from N4.50 per share, followed by Cement Company of Northern Nigeria, CCNN, which surged by 94 per cent to close at N9.70 per share, while FBNH gained 90.45 per cent to close at N6.38 per share from N3.35 per share.

Top five stock price losers’ movement

On the other hand, Forte Oil led the bunch of losers, dropping by 40.7 per cent to close at N50.7 per share from N84.43 per share; it was followed by 7up Bottling Company Plc, which declined by 33 per cent to close at N86.45 per share from N129.00 per share. Meyer Plc dipped by 19.5 per cent to close at N0.70 per share from N0.87 per share; followed by Trans-Nationwide Express Plc, which nosedived by 17 per cent to N0.83 per share to close at N1.00 per share, while Tripple Gee Plc lost 16.2 per cent to close at N1.14 per share from N1.36 per share.

Market Operators/Analysts reactions

Commenting on the market performance, Managing Director/CEO, APT Securities & Funds Limited, Mallam Kasimu Kurfi, said “Second quarter performance is excellent with a gain of over 30 per cent in the three months; this is really exceptional. It is the longest ever gain that we achieved in a quarter.

For the Q3 performance, it will really depend on the global price of Crude oil, as it currently trade at $46, which is seventh months lowest. The ability of the Central Bank of Nigeria, CBN to continue with Foreign Exchange, FX policy, the performance of the companies for second quarter 2017, the behaviour of foreign investor as regard to our market as well as our institutional investors particularly Pension Fund Administrators, will determine the success of Q3.

Is the CEO and Founder of Investors King Limited. He is a seasoned foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Business Insider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and other prominent platforms. With over two decades of experience in global financial markets, Olukoya is well-recognized in the industry.

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Finance

President Tinubu Orders Release of Minors Prosecuted for #BadGovernance Protests

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Following a recent viral video on the X app regarding the prosecution of minors who protested during the #BadGovernance movement, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has ordered the immediate release of all prosecuted minors.

This was announced by the Minister of Information and National Orientation, Mohammed Idris, in a statement to the State House Correspondents in Abuja.

In a show of concern over the detention of minors, President Tinubu directed the Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs and Poverty Reduction to investigate and ensure that the law is fully applied to law enforcement agents involved in the unlawful act.

It was noted that the arrests violated human rights and the Child Rights Act, as the 32 detainees are under 18 years old.

Activist organizations, including the Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF), National Human Rights Commission (NHRC), Civil Society Legislative Advocacy Centre (CISLAC), Resource Centre for Human Rights and Civic Education (CHRICED), and Concerned Parents and Educators (CPE), condemned the actions and denounced the treason charges filed against the detained minors.

In a call to action, the Socio-Economic Rights and Accountability Project (SERAP) urged the president to instruct the Attorney General of the Federation and Minister of Justice, Lateef Fagbemi, SAN, to immediately and unconditionally release all protesters arrested during the #EndBadGovernance movement.

SERAP stated, “The immediate and unconditional release of all #EndBadGovernance protesters, including 32 hungry and malnourished children, is necessary.”

According to SERAP, for the peaceful exercise of fundamental human rights, including freedom of expression, assembly, and association without fear of persecution or undue restriction, all detained protesters should be released.

In response to the president’s directive, the Attorney General of the Federation (AGF), Lateef Fagbemi, commented that his office “will need to review the matter to enable me to make an informed decision.”

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Banking Sector

FBN Holdings To Invest N103.1bn In Corporate, Retail Businesses

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FBN Holdings

As part of means of actualizing its expectation of raising N150 billion from its existing shareholders by way of rights issue, the management of FBN Holdings said it has budgeted an estimated N103.1 billion for its corporate business and retail business lending segments of the market.

The Holdings recently held the signing ceremony to begin the rights issue offering of 5,982,548,799 ordinary shares of 50 kobo each at N25.00 per share to its existing shareholder on the basis of one new ordinary share for every six ordinary shares held as of October 18, 2024.

Extracts from the offer raising prospectus of the financial institution revealed that lending to the corporate business segment gets N77.34 billion, while lending to the retail business segment gets a budget of N25.78 billion.

This covers 68.95 per cent of the N150 billion proposed rights issue the management seeks to raise from existing shareholders.

Out of the N150 billion, a total of N29.46 billion was budgeted to support international business expansion and N14.73 billion for investment in automation and digital banking.

According to the financial institution, seamless and convenient banking experience for its customers would be guaranteed through its significant investment in automation and digital banking.

Through its mobile banking app, FirstMobile, and its internet banking platform, FirstOnline, the management of FBN Holdings said it has effectively acquired a broad cross-section of the target demography, with a clear proposition of owning bank accounts and utilising various financial services from the comfort of their locations.

It added that the bank plans to upgrade the FirstMobile and FirstOnline apps with additional features while driving customer adoption of the platforms, noting that the development is in line with First Bank’s commitment to providing customers with the best-in-class electronic banking experience.

The offer, however, is part of the company’s plan to recapitalise its commercial banking subsidiary, First Bank of Nigeria Limited,  with a view to increasing the bank’s capacity for business development and growth.

Chairman, FBN Holdings, Olufemi Otedola in a statement from the document urged shareholders to support the Rights issue by accepting their rights, stating that the company will be well positioned to achieve its strategic objectives and to deliver improved returns to all stakeholders.

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Finance

Currency Outside Banks Increases By 66.2% As Nigerians Shun Formal Banking Channels

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New Naira notes

A recent data has revealed that currency outside banks increased by 66.2 percent in September 2024.

To this end, money outside traditional banking channels rose to N4.02 trillion compared to N2.42 trillion reported in September 2023.

This represents an increase of N1.60 trillion in just one year.

This was revealed in the Money and Credit Statistics data of the Central Bank of Nigeria.

According to the data, on a month-on-month basis, currency outside banks grew by 3.8 percent in September 2024 from August’s figure of N3.87 trillion, translating to an increase of N147.9 billion.

The trend suggests a growing inclination among the public to retain cash outside formal banking channels, a shift that could impact banks’ liquidity and shape monetary policy dynamics.

The CBN data further shows that a considerable proportion of Nigeria’s currency is held outside the banking system.

In September 2024, approximately 93.1 percent of currency in circulation was outside banks, a rise from 87.5 percent recorded in September 2023.

This shift may reflect limited trust in banking services, inflationary pressures, or a structural dependence on cash in Nigeria’s largely informal economy.

Such a high percentage of currency outside banks poses potential challenges for channelling funds into productive investments, potentially hindering economic growth.

The CBN report also highlights a parallel rise in overall currency in circulation, which encompasses both bank-held and outside cash.

In September 2024, currency in circulation rose beyond 56.1 percent year-on-year to reach N4.31trn, up from N2.76trn in September 2023, reflecting an increase of N1.55trn.

This indicates that the volume of currency retained outside the banking sector outpaced the total released for circulation within the past year.

Compared to August 2024, currency in circulation rose by 4.0 percent month-on-month, adding N166.2bn from the previous figure of N4.14trn.

Earlier in September, the CBN announced plans to sanction banks that fail to dispense cash through their automated teller machines, as part of efforts to improve cash availability in circulation.

The CBN also revealed plans to release an additional N1.4 trillion into circulation over the next three months to ease cash flow within the banking system.

This strategy aims to ensure that ATMs and bank branches have sufficient cash, addressing ongoing challenges faced by customers over cash shortages.

In related developments, it was observed that Nigeria’s money supply grew significantly by 62.8 percent year-on-year in September 2024, despite the Monetary Policy Committee’s tightening stance intended to manage excess liquidity to control inflation.

According to CBN data, M3 reached N108.95 trillion in September 2024, up from N66.94 trillion in the same period last year.

On a month-on-month basis, money supply rose by 1.6 percent, increasing from N107.19trn in August 2024.

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