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Nigeria’s N19tn Debt Profile Sustainable, Says Akabueze

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  • Nigeria’s N19tn Debt Profile Sustainable

The Director-General, Budget Office of the Federation, Mr. Ben Akabueze, has said that the country’s total indebtedness of N19.16tn is sustainable.

Akabueze stated this in Abuja during a panel discussion at the Times Breakfast monthly meeting.

Nigeria’s total debt had risen by N7.1tn in two years to N19.16tn as of March 2017.

The frequency of borrowing by the federal and state governments has become a source of worry to many analysts, who sound a note of caution that the country may be heading for another debt trap if restraint is not exercised.

According to the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan, Nigeria’s public debt has increased in recent years as the Federal Government has increased borrowing to finance budget deficits owing to declining revenue.

The country’s domestic debt profile, according to the document, is expected to rise by N2.34tn this year, while the foreign component is being projected to increase by N4.38tn.

But Akabueze maintained that the country’ debt profile was still within the globally accepted threshold.

He argued that rather than worry about the level of borrowing, the priority should be on how to shore up revenue that would enable the government finance its programmes.

He stated that the current level of revenue generation in the country was too small to fund an economy the size of Nigeria, noting that the country had one of the lowest tax to Gross Domestic Product ratio in the world.

Nigeria’s tax to GDP ratio is put at six per cent as against Ghana’s 20.8 per cent, 15.4 per cent in Benin Republic, 18.2 per cent in Cameroon, 23.2 per cent in Cape Verde, 15.3 per cent in Cote d’Ivoire, 15.8 per cent in Egypt and 26.9 per cent in South Africa.

Akabueze said, “As regards borrowing, whether our debt is sustainable, the answer is yes. The debt service ratio does not really speak to the excessiveness of the debt, but the real problem and we have to know where the problems is. It is with our revenues.

“Our revenues are way too low for the size and potential of this economy and that is why we have the lowest tax to GDP ratio in the whole continent. We are right there at the bottom globally simply because people are not paying taxes and we also have to ensure that even what people pay does not leak and it is properly accounted for.

“That’s what we need to deal with; if we pay the revenues and the denominator grows then the resultant ratio grows; but if we start tackling the tax to GDP ratio and we don’t go through a proper diagnosis, we will end up in the wrong direction.”

The ERGP states that the focus of the government’s debt will be shifted from domestic borrowing to foreign sources, as loans from international financial institutions are cheaper and have longer repayment periods.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Economy

Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

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Gas-Pipeline

The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

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IMF Report: Nigeria’s Inflation to Dip to 26.3% in 2024, Growth Expected at 3.3%

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IMF global - Investors King

Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2024 appears cautiously optimistic with projections indicating a potential decrease in the country’s inflation rate alongside moderate economic growth.

The IMF’s revised Global Economic Outlook for 2024 highlights key forecasts for Nigeria’s economic landscape and gave insights into both inflationary trends and GDP expansion.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 26.3% by the end of 2024.

This projection aligns with expectations of a gradual easing of inflationary pressures within the country, although challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate fluctuations continue to pose significant hurdles to price stability.

In tandem with the inflation forecast, the IMF also predicts a modest economic growth rate of 3.3% for Nigeria in 2024.

This growth projection reflects a cautious optimism regarding the country’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of various internal and external challenges.

Despite the ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and address macroeconomic imbalances, the IMF underscores the need for continued policy reforms and prudent fiscal management to sustain growth momentum.

The IMF report provides valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic trajectory, offering policymakers, investors, and stakeholders a comprehensive understanding of the country’s macroeconomic dynamics.

While the projected decline in inflation and modest growth outlook offer reasons for cautious optimism, it remains essential for Nigerian authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing underlying structural vulnerabilities and promoting inclusive economic development.

As the country navigates through a challenging economic landscape, concerted efforts towards policy coordination, investment promotion, and structural reforms will be crucial in unlocking Nigeria’s full growth potential and fostering long-term prosperity.

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Economy

South Africa’s March Inflation Hits Two-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

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South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s inflation rate declined to a two-month low, according to data released by Statistics South Africa.

Consumer prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in February. While this decline may initially suggest a positive trend, analysts caution against premature optimism due to various economic factors at play.

The weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, coupled with drought conditions affecting staple crops like white corn and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices, poses significant challenges.

These factors are expected to keep inflation relatively high and stubborn in the coming months, making policymakers hesitant to adjust borrowing costs.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, reiterated the bank’s cautious stance on inflation pressures.

Despite the recent easing, inflation has consistently remained above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3-6% since May 2021. Consequently, the bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 8.25% for nearly a year, aiming to anchor inflation expectations.

While some traders speculate on potential interest rate hikes, forward-rate agreements indicate a low likelihood of such a move at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

The yield on 10-year bonds also saw a marginal decline following the release of the inflation data.

March’s inflation decline was mainly attributed to lower prices in miscellaneous goods and services, education, health, and housing and utilities.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained relatively steady at 4.9%.

Overall, South Africa’s inflation trajectory underscores the delicate balance between economic recovery and inflation containment amid ongoing global uncertainties.

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