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Budget Delay Not Good for Economy, Says Lemo

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  • Budget Delay Not Good for Economy, Says Lemo

A former Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, Tunde Lemo, has said the delay in the signing of the 2017 budget into law is not too good for the economy, especially when the country is still in recession.

He said this on Thursday at the D.S. Adegbenro ICT Polytechnic, Itori, Ogun State, while fielding questions from journalists after delivering a lecture.

The maiden lecture was organised by the institution’s School of Management Sciences.

According to him, in countries where the budget cycle runs from the beginning of the year, the Appropriation Bill would have been submitted by September of the preceding year.

He, however, explained that the fact that a budget was delayed did not necessarily mean everything would ground to a halt, as a certain percentage of the budget for the preceding year could still be brought to the new year.

Lemo said, “I think the National Assembly can improve on the efficiency of passage of the budget in the sense that we all know the timetable for budget implementation.

“And in other climes, if you know you are implementing a budget from January, by September of the preceding year that budget should be with the National Assembly. For me, three months should be sufficient for them to go through it so that we hit the ground running from day one in the new year.”

He added, “However, the public must also note that the fact that the budget is delayed does not mean that everything must grind to a halt. There is a policy in government that you can implement every account held up to a percentage of what you did the preceding year, so that you have a situation where everything did not grind to a halt.

“Indeed, if we must race against time and take Nigeria out of recession, by now we should have had a budget running. It is not too good that we are still having this delay for this long period. My advice is that we should plan against next year’s budget; by August or September this year, the 2018 budget should be submitted to the National Assembly, so that by January 2018, we can hit the ground running.”

While pointing out some obstacles militating against the nation’s economic growth, he said the government must cut down on the cost of governance, improve on infrastructure, create a stable macro-economic environment, and evolve an investment-led recovery programme, among others.

Lemo, who spoke on the theme: ‘Economic recovery and growth plan: Obstacles and suggestions of radical solutions’, noted that the current practice where 70 per cent of budgetary allocations were spent on recurrent expenditure and 30 per cent on capital expenditure by the government did not augur well for the growth of the economy.

He also called on the government to work towards reducing the interest rate on loans to a single digit.

Suggesting other radical solutions to the current economic recession, Lemo charged the Federal Inland Revenue Service to evolve a strategy of bringing more Nigerians into the tax net.

While he suggested that tax evaders must be identified, arrested and prosecuted, the chartered banker said when the citizens pay their taxes, government would have money to provide amenities for the people.

On his own part, the Rector of the institution, Dr. Olufemi Fatade, noted that the country’s current economic challenge did not crop up overnight, but was due to overdependence on a single product, crude oil.

The Dean, School of Management Sciences, Dr. Femi Kayode, who said the lecture would be an annual event, said it would serve as a veritable platform to proffer solutions to the nation’s socio- economic challenges.

The event, which witnessed the turning of sod at the site for the School of Management Sciences, was attended by the Olowu of Owu, Oba Adegboyega Dosunmu, among others.

Is the CEO and Founder of Investors King Limited. He is a seasoned foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Business Insider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and other prominent platforms. With over two decades of experience in global financial markets, Olukoya is well-recognized in the industry.

Economy

FG to Hike VAT on Luxury Goods by 15%, Exempts Essentials for Vulnerable Nigerians

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Value added tax - Investors King

Nigeria’s Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr. Wale Edun, has announced plans by the Federal Government to raise the Value Added Tax (VAT) on luxury goods by 15% despite the ongoing economic challenges.

Minister Edun made this known in Washington DC, during a meeting with investors as part of the ongoing IMF/ World Bank Annual Forum.

While essential goods consumed by poor and vulnerable Nigerians will not be affected by the increase, Edun, however, the increase in VAT will affect luxury items.

He said, “In terms of VAT, President Bola Tinubu’s commitment is that while implementing difficult and wide-range but necessary reforms, the poorest and most vulnerable will be protected.

The minister also revealed that the bill is currently under review by the National Assembly and in due time, the government will release a list of essential goods exempted from VAT to provide clarity to the public.

“So, the Bills going through the National Assembly in terms of VAT will raise VAT for the wealthy on luxury goods, while at the same time exempting or applying a zero rate to essentials that the poor and average citizens purchase,” Edun explained.

Earlier in October, Investors King reported that the FG had removed VAT on diesel and cooking gas, among others to enhance economic productivity and ease the harsh reality of the current economy.

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Economy

Global Debt-to-GDP Ratio Approaching 100%, Rising Above Pandemic Peak

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Naira Exchange Rates - Investors King

The IMF sees countries debt growing above 100% of global GDP, Vitor Gaspar, head of the Fund’s Fiscal Affairs Department said ahead of the launch of the Fiscal Monitor (FM) Wednesday (October 23) in Washington, DC.

“Deficits are high and global public debt is very high and rising. If it continues at the current pace, the global debt-to-GDP ratio will approach 100% by the end of the decade, rising above the pandemic peak,” said Gaspar about the main message from the IMF’s Fiscal Monitor report.

The Fiscal Monitor is highlighting new tools to help policymakers determining the risk of high levels of debt.

“Assessing and managing public debt risks is a major task for policymakers. The Fiscal Monitor makes a major contribution. The Debt at Risk Framework. It considers the distribution of outcomes around the most likely scenario. The analysis in the Fiscal Monitor shows that debt risks are substantially worse than they look from the baseline alone. The framework should help policymakers take preemptive action to avoid the most adverse outcomes.”

Gaspar said that there’s a careful balance between keeping debt lower, versus necessary spending on people, infrastructure and social priorities.

“The Fiscal Monitor identifies three main drivers of debt risks. First, spending pressures from long term underlying trends, but also challenging politics at national, continental and global levels. Second, optimistic bias in debt projections. And third, increasing uncertainty associated with economic, financial and political developments.

Spending pressures from long term underlying trends and from challenging politics at national, continental and global levels. The key is for countries to get started on getting debt under control and to keep at it. Waiting is risky. The longer you wait, the greater the risk the debt becomes unsustainable. At the same time, countries that can afford it should avoid cutting too much, too fast. That would hurt growth and jobs. That is why in many cases we recommend an enduring but gradual fiscal adjustment.”

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Economy

IMF Attributes Nigeria’s Economic Downgrade to Inflation, Flooding, and Oil Woes

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IMF - Investors King

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has blamed the downgrade of Nigeria’s economic growth particularly on the effects of recent inflation, flooding and oil production setbacks.

In its World Economic Outlook (WEO) published on Tuesday, the Bretton Wood institution noted that Nigeria’s economy has grown in the last two quarters despite inflation and the weakening of the local currency, however, this could only translate to 2.9 percent in 2024 and 3.2 percent in 2025.

“Nigeria’s economy in the first and second quarter of the year grew by 2.98% and 3.19% respectively amid a surge in inflation and further depreciation of the Naira.

“The GDP growth rate in the first two quarters of 2024 surpassed the figure for 2023, representing resilience despite severe macroeconomic shocks with a spike in petrol prices and a 28-year high inflation rate,” the report seen by Investors King shows.

The spokesperson for IMF’s Research Department, Mr Jean-Marc Natal, said agricultural disruptions caused by severe flooding and security and maintenance issues hampering oil production were key drivers of the revision.

“There has been, over the last year and a half, some progress in the region. You saw, inflation stabilising in some countries, going down even and reaching a level close to the target. So, half of them are still at a large distance from the target, and a third of them are still having double-digit inflation.

“In terms of growth, it’s quite uneven, but it remains too low. The other issue is that in the region it is still high. It has stopped increasing, and in some countries already starting to consolidate, but it’s still too high, and the debt service is, correspondingly, still high in the region,” he said.

It also expects to see some changes in Nigeria’s inflation, which has slowed down in July and August before rising to 32.7 percent in September 2024.

“Nigeria’s inflation rate only began to slow down in July 2024 after 19 months of consistent increase dating back to January 2023.

“However, after two months of slowdown hiatus, inflation continued to rise on the back of an increase in petrol prices by the NNPCL in September,” the report said.

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