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Marker Update: Asia Stocks Rise as Yuan Strengthens, Oil Rebounds

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Asian Stocks
  • Marker Update: Asia Stocks Rise as Yuan Strengthens, Oil Rebounds

Asian equities rose, as gains in Japan helped offset declines in China, as investors weighed economic data and the possible path for interest rates. The yuan extended gains and oil rebounded.

Japan’s Topix advanced after capital spending topped estimates. The Shanghai Composite Index retreated with the Aussie dollar after a private gauge of China’s manufacturing fell below 50. The onshore yuan headed for the biggest four-day advance in almost 12 years amid speculation policy makers are trying to discourage bets against the currency. Crude oil rebounded from a slide triggered by doubts that an OPEC deal extension will be enough to combat higher production.

Global equities ended May just shy of a record as earnings growth supports optimism in the global economy, offsetting concerns for the inflation outlook. Data showed capital spending in Japan topped estimates during the first quarter, while corporate profits jumped 27 percent. In China, the weakness in the Caixin manufacturing gauge — with a smaller sample size — contrasts with the government’s reading Wednesday showing the manufacturing PMI was steady last month.

Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President John Williams said in Seoul that if the U.S. economy is strong enough, the central bank can raise interest rates four times in 2017. Policy makers meet in two weeks, while Friday’s jobs report may shed more light on the state of the world’s largest economy.

Meanwhile, four straight months of gains in 10-year Treasuries come as Dallas Fed boss Robert Kaplan said he’s concerned about recent declines in the core measure of inflation. Pacific Investment Management Co. says there’s a 70 percent chance of a U.S. recession in the next five years and investors should consider building cash for when markets eventually correct or overshoot.

Here are some of the key upcoming events:

  • The U.S. jobs report Friday may bolster the case for a rate hike, with a gain of 180,000 positions expected.

Here are the main moves in markets:

Stocks

  • Japan’s Topix index rose 1 percent as of 12:16 p.m. in Tokyo, after jumping 2.4 percent in May for its biggest monthly gain of the year. Singapore’s Straits Times Index climbed 0.5 percent.
  • Sydney’s S&P/ASX 200 Index rose 0.2 percent after swinging between gains and losses amid economic releases from Australia and China.
  • Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index climbed 0.4 percent after completing its fifth straight monthly gain, the longest winning streak since 2013. The Shanghai Composite Index slipped 0.4 percent, after a four-day rally.
  • Futures on the S&P 500 added 0.1 percent. The underlying gauge fell 0.1 percent Wednesday, trimming its May gain to 1.2 percent. It closed Friday at a record.

Currencies

  • The onshore yuan climbed 0.4 percent. The currency is up 1.4 percent over the latest four days, trading at the highest level since November.
  • The yen slipped 0.2 percent to 110.95 per dollar, after gaining in the month of May. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed, following a 1.5 percent decline for May for the biggest monthly drop since January.
  • The Australian dollar dropped 0.5 percent. The currency spiked after retail sales were stronger than expected, but reversed gains on China’s manufacturing data.
  • The pound fell 0.1 percent to $1.2873. The latest Times/YouGov poll showed the Conservatives leading Labour by just three points. Click here for an in-depth look at how election polling is sending jitters through the currency market.

Commodities

  • West Texas Intermediate crude oil advanced 0.8 percent to $48.68 a barrel, rebounding from a 2.7 percent drop in the previous session.
  • Gold was little changed at $1,269.21 an ounce.

Bonds

  • The yield on 10-year Treasuries rose less than one basis point to 2.21 percent, after falling a similar amount on Wednesday.
  • Benchmark yields in Australia dropped two basis points to 2.37 percent.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Crude Oil

IOCs Stick to Dollar Dominance in Crude Oil Transactions with Modular Refineries

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Crude Oil - Investors King

International Oil Companies (IOCs) are standing firm on their stance regarding the currency denomination for crude oil transactions with modular refineries.

Despite earlier indications suggesting a potential shift towards naira payments, IOCs have asserted their preference for dollar dominance in these transactions.

The decision, communicated during a meeting involving indigenous modular refineries and crude oil producers, shows the complex dynamics shaping Nigeria’s energy landscape.

While the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) had previously hinted at the possibility of allowing indigenous refineries to purchase crude oil in either naira or dollars, IOCs have maintained a firm stance favoring the latter.

Under this framework, modular refineries would be required to pay 80% of the crude oil purchase amount in US dollars, with the remaining 20% to be settled in naira.

This arrangement, although subject to ongoing discussions, signals a significant departure from initial expectations of a more balanced currency allocation.

Representatives from the Crude Oil Refinery Owners Association of Nigeria (CORAN) said the decision was not unilaterally imposed but rather reached through deliberations with relevant stakeholders, including the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).

While there were initial hopes of broader flexibility in currency options, the dominant position of IOCs has steered discussions towards a more dollar-centric model.

Despite reservations expressed by some participants, including modular refinery operators, the consensus appears to lean towards accommodating the preferences of major crude oil suppliers.

The development underscores the intricate negotiations and power dynamics shaping Nigeria’s energy sector, with implications for both domestic and international stakeholders.

As discussions continue, attention remains focused on how this decision will impact the operations and financial viability of modular refineries in Nigeria’s evolving oil landscape.

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Energy

Nigeria’s Dangote Refinery Overtakes European Giants in Capacity, Bloomberg Reports

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Aliko Dangote - Investors King

The Dangote Refinery has surpassed some of Europe’s largest refineries in terms of capacity, according to a recent report by Bloomberg.

The $20 billion Dangote refinery, located in Lagos, boasts a refining capacity of 650,000 barrels of petroleum products per day, positioning it as a formidable player in the global refining industry.

Bloomberg’s data highlighted that the Dangote refinery’s capacity exceeds that of Shell’s Pernis refinery in the Netherlands by over 246,000 barrels per day. Making Dangote’s facility a significant contender in the refining industry.

The report also underscored the scale of Dangote’s refinery compared to other prominent European refineries.

For instance, the TotalEnergies Antwerp refining facility in Belgium can refine 338,000 barrels per day, while the GOI Energy ISAB refinery in Italy was built with a refining capacity of 360,000 barrels per day.

Describing the Dangote refinery as a ‘game changer,’ Bloomberg emphasized its strategic advantage of leveraging cheaper U.S. oil imports for a substantial portion of its feedstock.

Analysts anticipate that the refinery’s operations will have a transformative impact on Nigeria’s fuel market and the broader region.

The refinery has already commenced shipping products in recent weeks while preparing to ramp up petrol output.

Analysts predict that Dangote’s refinery will influence Atlantic Basin gasoline markets and significantly alter the dynamics of the petroleum trade in West Africa.

Reuters recently reported that the Dangote refinery has the potential to disrupt the decades-long petrol trade from Europe to Africa, worth an estimated $17 billion annually.

With a configured capacity to produce up to 53 million liters of petrol per day, the refinery is poised to meet a significant portion of Nigeria’s fuel demand and reduce the country’s dependence on imported petroleum products.

Aliko Dangote, Africa’s richest man and the visionary behind the refinery, has demonstrated his commitment to revolutionizing Nigeria’s energy landscape. As the Dangote refinery continues to scale up its operations, it is poised to not only bolster Nigeria’s energy security but also emerge as a key player in the global refining industry.

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Crude Oil

Brent Crude Hits $88.42, WTI Climbs to $83.36 on Dollar Index Dip

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Brent crude oil - Investors King

Oil prices surged as Brent crude oil appreciated to $88.42 a barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed to $83.36 a barrel.

The uptick in prices comes as the U.S. dollar index dipped to its lowest level in over a week, prompting investors to shift their focus from geopolitical tensions to global economic conditions.

The weakening of the U.S. dollar, a key factor influencing oil prices, provided a boost to dollar-denominated commodities like oil. As the dollar index fell, demand for oil from investors holding other currencies increased, leading to the rise in prices.

Investors also found support in euro zone data indicating a robust expansion in business activity, with April witnessing the fastest pace of growth in nearly a year.

Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, noted that the market had been under pressure due to sluggish growth in the euro zone, making any signs of improvement supportive for oil prices.

Market participants are increasingly looking beyond geopolitical tensions and focusing on economic indicators and supply-and-demand dynamics.

Despite initial concerns regarding tensions between Israel and Iran and uncertainties surrounding China’s economic performance, the market sentiment remained optimistic, buoyed by expectations of steady oil demand.

Analysts anticipate the release of key economic data later in the week, including U.S. first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) figures and March’s personal consumption expenditures, which serve as the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge.

These data points are expected to provide further insights into the health of the economy and potentially impact oil prices.

Also, anticipation builds around the release of U.S. crude oil inventory data by the Energy Information Administration, scheduled for Wednesday.

Preliminary reports suggest an increase in crude oil inventories alongside a decrease in refined product stockpiles, reflecting ongoing dynamics in the oil market.

As oil prices continue their upward trajectory, investors remain vigilant, monitoring economic indicators and geopolitical developments for further cues on the future direction of the market.

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