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Bitcoin’s Rapid Surge Raises Reasons to Question Latest Frenzy

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Bitcoin
  • Bitcoin’s Rapid Surge Raises Reasons to Question Latest Frenzy

Bitcoin’s astronomical rally has cryptocurrency bulls feeling vindicated. Not so fast, skeptics say.

The digital currency’s more than 100 percent surge in the past two months looks eerily familiar, argue the bears, pointing to November 2013, when the price quintupled in short order to top $1,000 for the fist time. By Valentine’s Day it was worth around half that, and spent the better part of the next two years languishing below $500.

Then it absolutely exploded — jumping more than $1,400 in two months. At its height last week, one bitcoin could buy about two ounces of gold. Its champions touted the arrival of blockchain into the mainstream, the coin’s underlying technology which they say can lift the poor out of poverty and make transactions more secure, inexpensive and efficient.

But signs of a top have emerged, detractors warn. On May 25, bitcoin surged more than $300 to a record only to turn tail and close little changed. The $600 round trip was the biggest daily swing in its history. It then slumped 8 percent the next day. Bitcoin was at $2,253 in Asia on Tuesday. For bears, that kind of volatility shows the asset’s unreliability as a store of value.

Here are some other reasons why they warn caution is warranted:

Safety Questions

This month’s ransomware attacks serve as a reminder that bitcoin is still beloved by hackers and criminals because of its anonymity. The cryptocurrency plunged in 2014 after Tokyo-based Mt. Gox — then the largest bitcoin exchange — said it had been breached and then filed for bankruptcy. Its value sank again in August 2016 after hackers stole about $69 million from Hong Kong-based Bitfinex. The exchange has since repaid its customers.

Scaling Debate

The bitcoin community has been split for more than a year on how to upgrade its blockchain. The time and fees necessary to verify transactions have climbed to record highs, making it more difficult for businesses to use the currency as a means of payment. While bitcoin executives have said that 2017 might be the year the cryptocurrency really starts to scale, others aren’t so sure.

Last week, more than 50 companies signed a pact to speed up transactions, but ideological differences have prevented similar agreements — like the one reached last year in Hong Kong — from actually being implemented. The much-touted SegWit upgrade was also released in October, but only a third of the community has embraced it. If the latest proposal fails to gain traction and the deadlock continues, digital currency users may dump bitcoin in favor of alt-coins that offer better blockchains.

Rival Digital Currencies

As the surge sends the cryptocurrency world into a frenzy, it can be easy to lose sight of the bigger picture. While bitcoin’s value has increased more than 100 percent since the beginning of the year, its slice of the pie has shrunk as its digital cousins steal some of the spotlight. There are an estimated 700 rivals, according to Ron Quaranta, chairman of the Wall Street Blockchain Alliance.

Bitcoin dominated about half of the overall digital currency market as of Friday, down from around 85 percent in February, according to data from CoinMarketCap.com. Meanwhile, Ethereum’s share increased to about 20 percent. Some token fans aren’t sweating it though, as they say bitcoin’s potential demise doesn’t really matter as long as another digital currency takes hold.

Not Recognized By Governments

The general public doesn’t understand bitcoin, and many regulators still don’t either, which makes it tough to regulate. In 2015, New York started issuing controversial licenses to cryptocurrency companies, but only three had been issued as of mid-January, according to Coinbase, as many startups couldn’t afford the costs of applying.

In January, the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority asked the public for help identifying the potential risks of blockchain. Two months later, bitcoin plummeted after the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission rejected a proposal by the Winklevoss twins for a publicly traded fund based on the digital currency.

In a report last week about blockchain in China, analysts at Sanford C. Bernstein wrote that while the technology could benefit Chinese banks, it’s unlikely to start a financial revolution.

“We believe blockchain application is more likely to be evolutionary rather than revolutionary in developing countries like China,” the analysts said. “Aside from the conservative regulatory attitudes toward financial innovations, the constraint of confidentiality and performance of blockchain technology would make it best positioned to be enterprise-oriented rather than consumer-end.”

Bubbles Burst

Whether it’s Holland’s tulip-bulb craze in the 17th century or the Internet-stock frenzy of the late 1990s, history shows that markets self correct. Speculative markets usually run out of steam at some point. Determining the trigger is always the hard part. Given the breathtaking run in bitcoin as of late, some say it’s tough to believe the oft-cited mantra that this time is different.

CEO/Founder Investors King Ltd, a foreign exchange research analyst, contributing author on New York-based Talk Markets and Investing.com, with over a decade experience in the global financial markets.

US Dollar

Dollar Drops as Traders Prepare for Inflation Data

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Forex Weekly Outlook October 31-November 4

The dollar slipped on Monday towards a three-week low as Treasury yields traded near recent lows and traders awaited crucial U.S. inflation and retail sales data in coming days.

Elsewhere, it was a quiet start to a data-heavy week for foreign exchange markets. The euro climbed back above $1.19 while the British pound rebounded from a two-month low.

The dollar’s performance has been tied to U.S. Treasury yields for most of 2021, after concern about rising inflation in the United States and a stimulus-fueled economic rebound triggered a jump in Treasury yields in February.

A fall in U.S. yields last week triggered the worst week for the dollar in 2021. With yields inching lower on Monday, it was back under pressure.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said in a U.S. media interview released on Sunday that the U.S. economy was at “an inflection point” and looked set for a strong rebound in the coming months, but he also warned of risks stemming from a hasty re-opening.

Investors are now waiting for U.S. March inflation data due on Tuesday.

“We are set to see the first evidence of the much anticipated surge in inflation that is widely expected through the coming months as base effects from a year ago begin to take effect as the sharp declines post-COVID start to fall out of the annual calculations,” MUFG analysts said.

They said the dollar’s fortunes could well “remain linked to 10-year yields”.

The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield was at 1.664% after dropping to as low as 1.6170% last week. It had surged to a more than a one-year high of 1.7760% on March 30.

The dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency against a basket of currencies, weakened 0.2% to 92.03. The euro initially dropped but later recovered and was up 0.1% to $1.1915.

Bitcoin traded above $60,000, closing the gap to its record high.

Against the pound the dollar initially gained before reversing course. The British currency was last up 0.5% at $1.3763 after briefly touching a two-month low of $1.3669 as traders cheered the latest phase of the government’s economic re-opening plan.

The dollar fell 0.3% to 109.33 yen versus the Japanese currency.

U.S. dollar net short positions have fallen to their lowest in nearly three years, according to data published on Friday.

ING analysts noted that speculators had cut their net short dollar positions for the 12th consecutive week, which could prove a headwind for further dollar gains.

“At this stage, the dollar has lost all its positioning “advantage”, having a neutral speculative positioning, which suggests we should no longer see dollar rallies against most G10 currencies exacerbated by the unwinding of USD shorts,” they wrote.

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Naira

Naira Daily Foreign Exchange Rates for Friday, April 9, 2021

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Naira Dollar Exchange Rate

Naira exchanged at N485 to a United States Dollar on Friday, April 9 2021 at the parallel market. Against the British Pound, it traded at N670 and N574 to a Euro. 

Naira Black Market Exchange Rates

Morning * Midday** Evening *** Final Rates

Date USD GBP EURO YUAN Canadian Australian
NGN BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL
09/04/2021 480/485 662/670 565/574 62/69 393/400 292/320
08/04/2021 480/485 662/670 565/573 62/69 393/400 292/320
07/04/2021 478/485 662/670 565/673 62/69 392/400 292/320
06/04/2021 478/486 664/674 563/673 62/69 392/400 292/320
05/04/2021 478/486 664/674 565/673 62/69 392/400 292/320
02/04/2021 478/486 662/672 565/673 62/69 392/400 292/320
31/03/2021 482/486 672/678 565/673 62/69 392/400 292/320
30/03/2021 482/486 672/678 567/577 62/69 392/400 290/325
29/03/2021 480/485 670/677 568/575 62/69 390/400 290/325
26/03/2021 480/485 670/680 568/578 62/69 390/400 290/325
25/03/2021 480/486 672/680 570/580 62/69 390/400 290/320
24/03/2021 480/486 672/680 572/581 62/69 393/400 295/320
23/03/2021 480/486 672/680 572/582 60/68 390/400 295/320
22/03/2021 480/486 672/680 582/582 60/68 390/400 285/300
19/03/2021 480/485 672/680 573/583 60/68 390/400 282/300
18/03/2021 480/485 672/680 573/582 60/68 390/400 282/300
17/03/2021 478/485 670/678 572/582 60/68 390/400 282/300
16/03/2021 478/485 670/680 572/582 60/68 386/398 282/300
15/03/2021 478/485 670/676 572/582 60/68 386/398 282/300
12/03/2021 477/485 670/675 570/580 60/68 386/398 282/300
11/03/2021 475/482 668/675 568/575 60/68 386/398 282/300
10/03/2021 477/484 670/675 570/580 60/68 386/398 282/300
09/03/2021 475/484 670/675 578/580 60/68 385/395 282/300
08/03/2021 475/482 670/675 578/583 60/68 385/395 282/300
05/03/2021 475/480 670/675 577/582 60/68 385/395 282/300
04/03/2021 475/480 665/672 574/580 60/68 385/395 282/300
03/03/2021 475/480 662/672 574/580 60/68 385/395 282/300
02/03/2021 475/480 662/672 574/580 60/68 385/395 282/300
01/03/2021 475/482 662/672 575/583 60/68 385/395 282/300
26/02/2021 475/482 660/672 575/583 60/68 385/395 282/300
25/02/2021 475/480 660/670 572/580 60/68 385/395 282/300
24/02/2021 475/480 655/670 570/580 60/68 385/395 282/300
23/02/2021 475/480 655/665 575/582 60/68 385/395 282/300
22/02/2021 475/480 652/660 575/580 60/68 385/395 282/300
19/02/2021 474/478 648/655 570/577 60/68 385/395 282/300
18/02/2021 472/477 645/655 570/575 60/68 385/395 282/300
17/02/2021 472/478 645/655 570/575 60/68 385/395 282/300
16/02/2021 465/473 645/652 565/570 60/68 385/395 282/300
15/02/2021 465/473 642/652 562/570 60/68 385/395 282/300
12/02/2021 465/473 642/650 562/570 60/68 385/395 282/300
11/02/2021 465/475 640/650 560/570 60/70 385/400 280/300
10/02/2021 472/478 645/652 565/575 60/70 385/400 280/300
09/02/2021 474/480 645/655 567/575 60/70 385/400 280/300
08/02/2021 474/480 645/655 567/575 60/70 385/400 280/300
05/02/2021 474/480 645/653 567/578 60/70 385/400 280/300
04/02/2021 474/480 645/653 567/578 60/70 385/400 280/300
03/02/2021 474/480 642/655 575/580 60/70 385/400 280/300
02/02/2021 474/480 642/655 575/580 60/70 385/400 280/300
01/02/2021 474/480 642/655 575/580 60/70 385/400 280/300
29/01/2021 474/480 642/652 575/580 60/70 385/400 280/300

Bureau De Change Naira Rates

Date USD GBP EURO
NGN BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL
09/04/2021 472/482 661/673 56/570
08/04/2021 473/482 662/673 561/572
07/04/2021 475/485 661/674 560/573
06/04/2021 475/485 662/674 550/573
05/04/2021 475/485 662/674 560/574
04/04/2021 475/485 660/675 560/574
03/04/2021 475/485 660/675 560/574
02/04/2021 475/485 660/675 560/574
01/04/2021 475/485 660/675 560/574
31/03/2021 475/485 665/675 560/574
30/03/2021 475/485 668/675 564/574
29/03/2021 475/485 668/675 569/576
26/03/2021 475/485 668/675 569/576
25/03/2021 475/485 667/675 569/576
24/03/2021 475/485 667/675 569/576
23/03/2021 475/485 668/678 570/577
22/03/2021 475/485 670/678 570/577
19/03/2021 475/485 670/678 570/578
18/03/2021 475/485 668/675 569/578
17/03/2021 475/485 667/674 569/578
16/03/2021 475/485 667/674 569/578
15/03/2021 470/480 665/674 560/578
12/03/2021 470/480 665/674 560/578
11/03/2021 470/480 665/674 560/578
10/03/2021 470/480 665/674 560/578
09/03/2021 470/480 665/674 567/580
08/03/2021 470/480 662/672 570/580
05/03/2021 470/480 662/672 570/580
04/03/2021 470/480 662/672 570/580
03/03/2021 470/480 662/670 573/580
02/03/2021 470/480 660/669 573/580
01/03/2021 470/480 660/669 574/580
26/02/2021 470/480 660/669 574/580
25/02/2021 470/480 658/665 574/580
24/02/2021 470/478 654/660 570/578
23/02/2021 470/478 654/660 570/578
22/02/2021 470/477 650/656 570/577
19/02/2021 465/476 645/656 565/573
18/02/2021 465/475 640/652 563/570
17/02/2021 465/477 640/655 562/572
16/02/2021 460/475 640/652 562/570
15/02/2021 460/475 638/652 561/568
12/02/2021 467/475 635/650 562/570
11/02/2021 465/475 640/655 560/575
10/02/2021 472/478 640/655 565/575
09/02/2021 472/478 640/655 565/575
08/02/2021 472/478 640/655 565/575
05/02/2021 472/478 640/650 565/575
04/02/2021 472/478 640/650 565/575
03/02/2021 471/478 640/650 572/580
02/02/2021 471/478 640/655 572/580
01/02/2021 471/478 640/655 572/580
29/01/2021 471/477 640/648 570/579

Central Bank of Nigeria’s Official Naira Rates

 

 

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Naira

Naira Exchange Rates; Wednesday, April 7, 2021

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naira

Naira traded at N485 to a United States Dollar on Wednesday 07, April 2021 at the black market. While against the British Pound it sold at N670 and N573 to a single Euro as shown below.

Naira Black Market Exchange Rates

Morning * Midday** Evening *** Final Rates

Date USD GBP EURO YUAN Canadian Australian
NGN BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL
07/04/2021 480/485 662/670 565/574 62/69 392/400 292/320
06/04/2021 478/486 664/674 563/573 62/69 392/400 292/320
05/04/2021 478/486 664/674 565/573 62/69 392/400 292/320
02/04/2021 478/486 662/672 565/573 62/69 392/400 292/320
31/03/2021 482/486 672/678 565/573 62/69 392/400 292/320
30/03/2021 482/486 672/678 567/577 62/69 392/400 290/325
29/03/2021 480/485 670/677 568/575 62/69 390/400 290/325
26/03/2021 480/485 670/680 568/578 62/69 390/400 290/325
25/03/2021 480/486 672/680 570/580 62/69 390/400 290/320
24/03/2021 480/486 672/680 572/581 62/69 393/400 295/320
23/03/2021 480/486 672/680 572/582 60/68 390/400 295/320
22/03/2021 480/486 672/680 582/582 60/68 390/400 285/300
19/03/2021 480/485 672/680 573/583 60/68 390/400 282/300
18/03/2021 480/485 672/680 573/582 60/68 390/400 282/300
17/03/2021 478/485 670/678 572/582 60/68 390/400 282/300
16/03/2021 478/485 670/680 572/582 60/68 386/398 282/300
15/03/2021 478/485 670/676 572/582 60/68 386/398 282/300
12/03/2021 477/485 670/675 570/580 60/68 386/398 282/300
11/03/2021 475/482 668/675 568/575 60/68 386/398 282/300
10/03/2021 477/484 670/675 570/580 60/68 386/398 282/300
09/03/2021 475/484 670/675 578/580 60/68 385/395 282/300
08/03/2021 475/482 670/675 578/583 60/68 385/395 282/300
05/03/2021 475/480 670/675 577/582 60/68 385/395 282/300
04/03/2021 475/480 665/672 574/580 60/68 385/395 282/300
03/03/2021 475/480 662/672 574/580 60/68 385/395 282/300
02/03/2021 475/480 662/672 574/580 60/68 385/395 282/300
01/03/2021 475/482 662/672 575/583 60/68 385/395 282/300
26/02/2021 475/482 660/672 575/583 60/68 385/395 282/300
25/02/2021 475/480 660/670 572/580 60/68 385/395 282/300
24/02/2021 475/480 655/670 570/580 60/68 385/395 282/300
23/02/2021 475/480 655/665 575/582 60/68 385/395 282/300
22/02/2021 475/480 652/660 575/580 60/68 385/395 282/300
19/02/2021 474/478 648/655 570/577 60/68 385/395 282/300
18/02/2021 472/477 645/655 570/575 60/68 385/395 282/300
17/02/2021 472/478 645/655 570/575 60/68 385/395 282/300
16/02/2021 465/473 645/652 565/570 60/68 385/395 282/300
15/02/2021 465/473 642/652 562/570 60/68 385/395 282/300
12/02/2021 465/473 642/650 562/570 60/68 385/395 282/300
11/02/2021 465/475 640/650 560/570 60/70 385/400 280/300
10/02/2021 472/478 645/652 565/575 60/70 385/400 280/300
09/02/2021 474/480 645/655 567/575 60/70 385/400 280/300
08/02/2021 474/480 645/655 567/575 60/70 385/400 280/300
05/02/2021 474/480 645/653 567/578 60/70 385/400 280/300
04/02/2021 474/480 645/653 567/578 60/70 385/400 280/300
03/02/2021 474/480 642/655 575/580 60/70 385/400 280/300
02/02/2021 474/480 642/655 575/580 60/70 385/400 280/300
01/02/2021 474/480 642/655 575/580 60/70 385/400 280/300
29/01/2021 474/480 642/652 575/580 60/70 385/400 280/300

Bureau De Change Naira Rates

Date USD GBP EURO
NGN BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL
07/04/2021 475/485 662/674 560/573
06/04/2021 475/485 662/674 550/573
05/04/2021 475/485 662/674 560/574
04/04/2021 475/485 660/675 560/574
03/04/2021 475/485 660/675 560/574
02/04/2021 475/485 660/675 560/574
01/04/2021 475/485 660/675 560/574
31/03/2021 475/485 665/675 560/574
30/03/2021 475/485 668/675 564/574
29/03/2021 475/485 668/675 569/576
26/03/2021 475/485 668/675 569/576
25/03/2021 475/485 667/675 569/576
24/03/2021 475/485 667/675 569/576
23/03/2021 475/485 668/678 570/577
22/03/2021 475/485 670/678 570/577
19/03/2021 475/485 670/678 570/578
18/03/2021 475/485 668/675 569/578
17/03/2021 475/485 667/674 569/578
16/03/2021 475/485 667/674 569/578
15/03/2021 470/480 665/674 560/578
12/03/2021 470/480 665/674 560/578
11/03/2021 470/480 665/674 560/578
10/03/2021 470/480 665/674 560/578
09/03/2021 470/480 665/674 567/580
08/03/2021 470/480 662/672 570/580
05/03/2021 470/480 662/672 570/580
04/03/2021 470/480 662/672 570/580
03/03/2021 470/480 662/670 573/580
02/03/2021 470/480 660/669 573/580
01/03/2021 470/480 660/669 574/580
26/02/2021 470/480 660/669 574/580
25/02/2021 470/480 658/665 574/580
24/02/2021 470/478 654/660 570/578
23/02/2021 470/478 654/660 570/578
22/02/2021 470/477 650/656 570/577
19/02/2021 465/476 645/656 565/573
18/02/2021 465/475 640/652 563/570
17/02/2021 465/477 640/655 562/572
16/02/2021 460/475 640/652 562/570
15/02/2021 460/475 638/652 561/568
12/02/2021 467/475 635/650 562/570
11/02/2021 465/475 640/655 560/575
10/02/2021 472/478 640/655 565/575
09/02/2021 472/478 640/655 565/575
08/02/2021 472/478 640/655 565/575
05/02/2021 472/478 640/650 565/575
04/02/2021 472/478 640/650 565/575
03/02/2021 471/478 640/650 572/580
02/02/2021 471/478 640/655 572/580
01/02/2021 471/478 640/655 572/580
29/01/2021 471/477 640/648 570/579

Central Bank of Nigeria’s Official Naira Rates

 

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