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Timely Implementation of ERGP’ll End Recession — CBN

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Godwin Emefiele CBN - Investors King
  • Timely Implementation of ERGP’ll End Recession

The Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank of Nigeria on Tuesday called for the timely implementation of the recently launched Economic Recovery and Growth Plan to take the country out of recession.

The committee, in a communique that was read by the CBN Governor, Mr. Godwin Emefiele, after its two-day meeting in Abuja, also called for the judicious execution of the 2017 budget, which was recently passed by the National Assembly.

It said while the fiscal authorities work towards the implementation of the ERGP and the budget, the apex bank should sustain its recent intervention in the foreign exchange market in order to accelerate growth and restore confidence in the economy.

However, it said there were downside risks that might limit the potential for growth.

Some of them are the possibility of low oil prices due to renewed investments in shale oil exploration and production; continuing monetary policy normalisation by the United States Fed, which may result in strengthening of the US dollar; and consequent capital reversal from Nigeria and other emerging market economies.

Also, the MPC believes that the inflation outlook does not pose significant threat as the limit of the base effect driving the current moderation in prices may have been reached.

Emefiele said, “The committee welcomes the passage of the 2017 budget and called on the relevant authorities to ensure its judicious implementation, especially the capital budget, in line with the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan.

“It, however, noted the associated risks to banking system liquidity of the envisaged fiscal injections during the remainder of the year.”

In consideration of the challenges weighing down the domestic economy and the uncertainties in the global environment, the CBN governor said the committee decided by a unanimous vote of the eight members in attendance to retain the Monetary Policy Rate at 14 per cent.

Apart from the MPR, he said the committee also voted to retain the Cash Reserves Ratio at 22.5 per cent.

Also retained were the Liquidity Ratio, which was left at 30 per cent; and the Asymmetric Window, which was left at +200 and -500 basis points around the MPR.

In reaching these decisions, Emefiele explained that the MPC was reluctant to alter the current policy configuration in any fundamental manner as its intention was to allow the existing policies to fully achieve their intended goals and objectives.

On the other hand, he said the MPC noted that the cost of capital in the economy remained high and not helpful to growth.

Emefiele stated, “The MPC was, however, concerned that loosening would exacerbate inflationary pressures and worsen the gains so far achieved in the exchange rate of the naira.

“It was also convinced that loosening would further increase the negative real interest rate as the gap between the nominal interest rate and inflation widens.”

The governor explained that the MPC urged the CBN to intensify its surveillance in order to address emerging vulnerabilities.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Economy

Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

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Gas-Pipeline

The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

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IMF Report: Nigeria’s Inflation to Dip to 26.3% in 2024, Growth Expected at 3.3%

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IMF global - Investors King

Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2024 appears cautiously optimistic with projections indicating a potential decrease in the country’s inflation rate alongside moderate economic growth.

The IMF’s revised Global Economic Outlook for 2024 highlights key forecasts for Nigeria’s economic landscape and gave insights into both inflationary trends and GDP expansion.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 26.3% by the end of 2024.

This projection aligns with expectations of a gradual easing of inflationary pressures within the country, although challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate fluctuations continue to pose significant hurdles to price stability.

In tandem with the inflation forecast, the IMF also predicts a modest economic growth rate of 3.3% for Nigeria in 2024.

This growth projection reflects a cautious optimism regarding the country’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of various internal and external challenges.

Despite the ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and address macroeconomic imbalances, the IMF underscores the need for continued policy reforms and prudent fiscal management to sustain growth momentum.

The IMF report provides valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic trajectory, offering policymakers, investors, and stakeholders a comprehensive understanding of the country’s macroeconomic dynamics.

While the projected decline in inflation and modest growth outlook offer reasons for cautious optimism, it remains essential for Nigerian authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing underlying structural vulnerabilities and promoting inclusive economic development.

As the country navigates through a challenging economic landscape, concerted efforts towards policy coordination, investment promotion, and structural reforms will be crucial in unlocking Nigeria’s full growth potential and fostering long-term prosperity.

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South Africa’s March Inflation Hits Two-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

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South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s inflation rate declined to a two-month low, according to data released by Statistics South Africa.

Consumer prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in February. While this decline may initially suggest a positive trend, analysts caution against premature optimism due to various economic factors at play.

The weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, coupled with drought conditions affecting staple crops like white corn and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices, poses significant challenges.

These factors are expected to keep inflation relatively high and stubborn in the coming months, making policymakers hesitant to adjust borrowing costs.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, reiterated the bank’s cautious stance on inflation pressures.

Despite the recent easing, inflation has consistently remained above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3-6% since May 2021. Consequently, the bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 8.25% for nearly a year, aiming to anchor inflation expectations.

While some traders speculate on potential interest rate hikes, forward-rate agreements indicate a low likelihood of such a move at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

The yield on 10-year bonds also saw a marginal decline following the release of the inflation data.

March’s inflation decline was mainly attributed to lower prices in miscellaneous goods and services, education, health, and housing and utilities.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained relatively steady at 4.9%.

Overall, South Africa’s inflation trajectory underscores the delicate balance between economic recovery and inflation containment amid ongoing global uncertainties.

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