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Euro Soars Amid Trump Concerns; Oil Extends Gain

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European
  • Euro Soars Amid Trump Concerns; Oil Extends Gain

The dollar weakened for a fifth day and the euro surged to the highest since November after a report U.S. President Donald Trump revealed classified information to Russia’s top diplomat. Crude extended gains as confidence grew that output cuts will be extended.

The dollar fell against most of its major peers after the Washington Post reported the president last week shared closely-held intelligence with Russia’s foreign minister and ambassador. The greenback’s weakness translated to gains for precious metals, while crude rose a fifth day as Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said willingness by Saudi Arabia and Russia to extend production cuts will likely sway other countries.

The market reaction to the latest in a string of controversies to dog Trump highlights growing uncertainty that the president will be able to deliver on plans to boost infrastructure spending and cut taxes. That could prove key to investors, who are weighing historically pricey equities and ominously low volatility just as data from both China and the U.S. casts a shadow on global growth.

“This sort of discussion is very new indeed and has caused a lot of U.S. politicians to raise more concerns, and that has clearly rippled into the markets,” said Andrew Milligan, head of global strategy at Standard Life Investments Ltd. in Edinburgh. “We can still buy into the interest-rate differentials arguments for the dollar but the arguments about fiscal stimulus and cross-border flows look more tenuous and have made us neutralize our bets on the dollar.”

What investors will be watching:

  • In the U.S., data on industrial production and housing starts are scheduled for Tuesday.
  • The IEA comes out with estimates of April OPEC production the same day.
  • OPEC’s internal Economic Commission Board meets in Vienna Wednesday to discuss the market in preparation for the group’s formal meeting on May 25.
  • Wednesday’s U.K. labor report may reveal pay rose 2.1 percent, down from 2.2 percent.
  • Singapore exports and Malaysia CPI for April are also due Wednesday, and the Australian jobs report a day later.
  • Japanese GDP for the first quarter will be out on Thursday.

CEO/Founder Investors King Ltd, a foreign exchange research analyst, contributing author on New York-based Talk Markets and Investing.com, with over a decade experience in the global financial markets.

Forex

Naira Devaluation Pushed Exchange Rate to N500/US$ at Black Market

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NAIRA

Naira to United States Dollar exchange rate plunged to N500 on Monday after the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) devalued the Naira by N6 on Friday amid growing scarcity.

At the current rate, the local currency has lost N140 per US dollar when compared with N360 it was sold in the same month of 2019 and N5 compared to N495 it exchanged on Friday.

In an effort to ease pressure on the nation’s foreign reserves and unify foreign exchange rates in line with the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank’s requirement for loans, the CBN devalued the official exchange rate by N6 from N379/US$ to N385/US$ and directed bureau de change operators to sell at N392/US$, up from N386/US$.

However, with importers and businesses looking to meet the usual high demand for goods in December pushing demand for the United States dollar off the roof, Naira’s value has continued to plummet despite efforts by the CBN to prop up its value.

Against the British Pound, the Naira declined to N650, down from N620 it exchanged last week. This depreciation continues against the Euro common currency as the local currency declined to N585.

Lack of liquidity due to the weak foreign reserves, low oil prices and weak demand for the commodity amid production cuts by OPEC and allies is hurting CBN’s ability to effectively intervene at the nation’s foreign exchange markets.

The apex bank usually sells forex to dealers to ease scarcity and facilitate trades. However, lack of revenue generation

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Forex

Again CBN Devalues Naira by N6 Ahead of World Bank’s $1.5bn Loan Request

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Naira Dollar Exchange Rate

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has once again devalued the Nigerian Naira by N6 to the United States Dollar, making it the third time the apex bank will adjust the Naira exchange rate this year.

The devaluation brings the CBN closer to actualising foreign exchange unification demanded by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in April before the $3.4 billion loan was approved.

This same condition was enforced by the World Bank as a prerequisite for approval of $1.5 billion loan request submitted by the Federal Government. The loan the Minister of Finance, Budget and National Planning, Mrs Zainab Ahmed, said she was positive it would be approved by the multilateral institution in the next meeting given that the Federal Government has met all the conditions for the said loan.

24 hours later, the apex bank devalued the Naira official rate by N6 from N379/US$ to N385/US$. While the International Money Transfer Service Operators (IMTOs), all authorised dealers, bureau de change operators and service providers were asked to add N6 across all rates.

The rate for IMTOs against the US dollar has now moved from N382 to N388. Meaning banks will now sell dollar to the CBN at N389, up from the previous N383 to us dollar.

Again, the Central Bank sale of dollar to the bureau de change operators was pegged at N390 to dollar, against the old N384 to US dollar.

The apex bank, therefore, directed the BDCs to sell at not more than N392 per dollar to end-users. The old rate was N386 to a US dollar.

The CBN circlar reads in part, “Weekly Exchange Rate For Disbursement of Proceeds of International Money Transfer Service Operators’ pegged IMTOs sale of dollar to banks at N388 to dollar; banks sale of dollar to CBN at N389 to dollar and CBN sale of dollar to BDCs at N390 to dollar. The BDCs are now expected to sale to end-users at not more than N392 to dollar and each BDC is entitled to buy $10,000 weekly”.

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Forex

More Problem for CBN as Naira Approaches N500/US$ at the Black Market

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Forex Weekly Outlook March 6 - 10

Naira plunged against the United States Dollar to a record low of N495 at the black market on Thursday despite the Central Bank of Nigeria saying it has enough financial means to meet forex demands.

The Naira declined by N12 from N483 it exchanged on Monday amid persistent scarcity and high demands by importers and businesses looking to offset COVID-19 losses with the usual December high demand sales.

Godwin Emefiele, the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), on Tuesday blamed the wide foreign exchange rate at the black market on speculators and hoarders looking for personal gain at the expense of the nation.

He went on to caution experts using black market rates to analyse the local currency performance to stop and claimed that section of the forex only accounts for 5 percent of the nation’s total foreign exchange transactions.

While that might be true, it is also true that majority of manufacturers and businesses have turned to the black market for their forex needs in recent months, especially after it became obvious that the apex bank does not have enough liquidity to service the economy.

The nation’s foreign reserves has been battered by the weak oil prices and the continuous production cut by OPEC and allies to artificially support low prices. Nigeria’s foreign reserves is presently hovering between $35 billion and $36 billion after plunging from $45 billion attained in June 2019, according to the latest data from the Central Bank of Nigeria.

Against the British Pound, the Nigerian Naira depreciated by N15 to N635 from N620 it exchanged on Monday. Another indication of chronic forex scarcity as the local currency also plunged to N580 against the European common currency, the Euro.

The wide forex is expected to further weigh on the nation’s inflation rate and consumer spending this December.

On Tuesday, the apex bank left the interest rate unchanged at 11.5 percent and attributed the rising inflation rate to structural policies, the recent #EndSARS protest and a surging fuel price.

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