- Europe Stocks Slip as Oil Leads Commodity Rebound
European stocks drifted lower for the first time in three days as gains for mining shares struggled to offset a broader mood of caution. Gold was poised to snap its six-day losing streak amid a wider commodity bounce.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index slipped following a raft of corporate results. Companies including Telefonica, UniCredit and Maersk reported good earnings, but the gauge this week climbed to near the highest on record and trading patterns indicate it may be due a pause. Oil rose after posting the biggest advance this year on Wednesday as U.S. crude stockpiles fell by more than twice what had been forecast. The pound weakened as the Bank of England left borrowing costs unchanged.
While company earnings and U.S. data are painting a picture of robust global growth and political risk has eased following France’s presidential election, investors are showing a lack of conviction as global equities trade at record-high levels and volatility evaporates. The path for interest rates will remain a major focus amid growing bets for a Fed increase in June and talk of tapering by the European Central Bank. The BoE said on Thursday it may need to raise interest rates faster than the market suggests, assuming that Brexit goes well.
“Investors are trying to make sense of contradictory forces,” said Ben Kumar, a London-based investment manager at Seven Investment Management, which oversees about 10 billion pounds ($13 billion). “Everyone’s quite optimistic and companies are making lots of money and this is all good stuff, and they start thinking about Mario Draghi and the taper and how much that will hurt.”
Here are the key events this week:
- U.S. April retail and CPI figures are on Friday.
- March industrial production data the same day could prompt a revision to the first reading of euro-area GDP growth. Germany’s preliminary growth figure for the first quarter is also Friday.
Communities in Delta State Shut OML30 Operates by Heritage Energy Operational Services Ltd
The OML30 operated by Heritage Energy Operational Services Limited in Delta State has been shut down by the host communities for failing to meet its obligations to the 112 host communities.
The host communities, led by its Management Committee/President Generals, had accused the company of gross indifference and failure in its obligations to the host communities despite several meetings and calls to ensure a peaceful resolution.
The station with a production capacity of 80,000 barrels per day and eight flow stations operates within the Ughelli area of Delta State.
The host communities specifically accused HEOSL of failure to pay the GMOU fund for the last two years despite mediation by the Delta State Government on May 18, 2020.
Also, the host communities accused HEOSL of ‘total stoppage of scholarship award and payment to host communities since 2016’.
The Chairman, Dr Harrison Oboghor and Secretary, Mr Ibuje Joseph that led the OML30 host communities explained to journalists on Monday that the host communities had resolved not to backpedal until all their demands were met.
Crude Oil Recovers from 4 Percent Decline as Joe Biden Wins
Oil Prices Recover from 4 Percent Decline as Joe Biden Wins
Crude oil prices rose with other financial markets on Monday following a 4 percent decline on Friday.
This was after Joe Biden, the former Vice-President and now the President-elect won the race to the White House.
Global benchmark oil, Brent crude oil, gained $1.06 or 2.7 percent to $40.51 per barrel on Monday while the U.S West Texas Intermediate crude oil gained $1.07 or 2.9 percent to $38.21 per barrel.
On Friday, Brent crude oil declined by 4 percent as global uncertainty surged amid unclear US election and a series of negative comments from President Trump. However, on Saturday when it became clear that Joe Biden has won, global financial markets rebounded in anticipation of additional stimulus given Biden’s position on economic growth and recovery.
“Trading this morning has a risk-on flavor, reflecting increasing confidence that Joe Biden will occupy the White House, but the Republican Party will retain control of the Senate,” Michael McCarthy, chief market strategist at CMC Markets in Sydney.
“The outcome is ideal from a market point of view. Neither party controls the Congress, so both trade wars and higher taxes are largely off the agenda.”
The president-elect and his team are now working on mitigating the risk of COVID-19, grow the world’s largest economy by protecting small businesses and the middle class that is the backbone of the American economy.
“There will be some repercussions further down the road,” said OCBC’s economist Howie Lee, raising the possibility of lockdowns in the United States under Biden.
“Either you’re crimping energy demand or consumption behavior.”
Nigeria, Other OPEC Members Oil Revenue to Hit 18 Year Low in 2020
Revenue of OPEC Members to Drop to 18 Year Low in 2020
The United States Energy Information Administration (EIA) has predicted that the oil revenue of members of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will decline to 18-year low in 2020.
EIA said their combined oil export revenue will plunge to its lowest level since 2002. It proceeded to put a value to the projection by saying members of the oil cartel would earn around $323 billion in net oil export in 2020.
“If realised, this forecast revenue would be the lowest in 18 years. Lower crude oil prices and lower export volumes drive this expected decrease in export revenues,” it said.
The oil expert based its projection on weak global oil demand and low oil prices because of COVID-19.
It said this coupled with production cuts by OPEC members in recent months will impact net revenue of the cartel in 2020.
It said, “OPEC earned an estimated $595bn in net oil export revenues in 2019, less than half of the estimated record high of $1.2tn, which was earned in 2012.
“Continued declines in revenue in 2020 could be detrimental to member countries’ fiscal budgets, which rely heavily on revenues from oil sales to import goods, fund social programmes, and support public services.”
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