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Oil Production Wobbles as Forcados Remains Shut

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  • Oil Production Wobbles as Forcados Remains Shut

The nation’s crude oil production has remained subdued despite the suspension of militant attacks on oil and gas facilities in the past few months.

The Forcados export terminal, the country’s third largest, has been under force majeure since February 2016, limiting gas supply to power plants and crude oil production and exports.

Since then, the nation’s electricity generation has similarly been unable to come near the peak of 5,074.70 megawatts it achieved on February 2, 2016.

Total power generation, which plunged to a low of 1,400MW on May 17, 2016, stood at 3,109.70MW as of 6:00am on Friday, more than 14 months after the attack on Forcados.

Crude oil production in the country fell to 1.269 million barrels per day in March from 1.426 million bpd in the previous month, according to the latest monthly oil report from the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries.

According to the United States Energy Information Administration, Nigeria’s crude oil production, which peaked at 2.44 million bpd in 2005, fell to 1.9 million bpd last year.

Shell Petroleum Development Company declared the force majeure on the exports of Forcados on February 21, a week after the Forcados export line was attacked by militants in the Niger Delta.

The force majeure is a legal clause that allows the oil major to stop shipments without breaching contracts.

According to the NNPC, at Forcados terminal alone, about 300,000 barrels of oil per day have been shut in since February 2016 following the declaration of the force majeure.

The corporation also said over 1,500MW of power supply was lost to the attack on Forcados, which is Nigeria’s major artery, with gas supply from it accounting for 40 per cent to 50 per cent of gas production in the country.

The country generates most of its electricity from gas-fired power plants, while output from hydro-power plants makes up about 30 per cent of total generation.

FBNQuest analysts headed by Gregory Kronsten, in their Economic Outlook for the second quarter of 2017 released on Friday, described the recent scale of production losses as unprecedented.

They said, “Last year, the losses soared in an upsurge in sabotage and militancy, climbing to 750,000 bpd on occasions. For the uninitiated, we should explain that these huge losses are a combination of artisanal theft and larger criminal operations. A local act of ‘bunkering’ can lead to the closure of a main pipeline and the declaration of force majeure.”

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Economy

Analysts Forecast Rate Increase as Naira Depreciates Sharply

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As the Nigerian naira experiences a sharp depreciation against major currencies, financial analysts are predicting that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will opt for another interest rate hike to address the country’s economic challenges.

The recent slump in the naira, coupled with a 28-year high inflation rate, has raised concerns among economists, prompting expectations of further tightening measures.

Since mid-April, the naira has witnessed a significant decline, falling by 28% against the US dollar over the past four weeks.

This rapid depreciation has been exacerbated by President Bola Tinubu’s decision to relax foreign-exchange controls last June.

In response to the economic turmoil, the MPC raised interest rates by 6 percentage points in the first quarter, bringing the benchmark rate to 24.75%.

However, with inflation soaring to 33.7% last month—well above the central bank’s target range of 9%—analysts believe that additional rate hikes may be necessary to curb rising prices and stabilize the currency.

Giulia Pellegrin, a senior portfolio manager at Allianz Global Investors, highlighted the need for proactive measures, stating, “The committee will likely be watching recent currency volatility and may decide more action is needed.”

She emphasized the importance of tightening monetary policy to restore investor confidence and ensure price stability.

Yvonne Mhango, an economist at Bloomberg Africa, echoed similar sentiments, noting that the naira’s depreciation necessitates “additional and sizeable rate hikes.”

Mhango emphasized the significance of maintaining positive real interest rates to combat inflationary pressures effectively.

Investors are eagerly awaiting the MPC’s decision, with many expecting another interest rate increase at the upcoming meeting on May 21.

Ayodeji Dawodu, director of fixed income at BancTrust & Co., stressed the importance of transparency and intervention in the currency market to restore stability.

“Investors also want Cardoso to announce more liquidity-tightening measures and introduce greater transparency in the currency market,” Dawodu remarked.

Despite recent declines in liquid reserves, analysts remain hopeful that decisive action from the central bank will help alleviate concerns about the quality of reserves and bolster confidence in the economy.

As Nigeria navigates through turbulent economic waters, all eyes are on the MPC’s decision and its potential implications for the country’s financial landscape.

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Economy

Nigeria’s N3.3tn Power Sector Rescue Package Unveiled

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power project

President Bola Tinubu has given the green light for a comprehensive N3.3 trillion rescue package.

This ambitious initiative seeks to tackle the country’s mounting power sector debts, which have long hindered the efficiency and reliability of electricity supply across the nation.

The unveiling of this rescue package represents a pivotal moment in Nigeria’s quest for a sustainable energy future. With power outages being a recurring nightmare for both businesses and households, the need for decisive action has never been more urgent.

At the heart of the rescue package are measures aimed at settling the staggering debts accumulated within the power sector. President Tinubu has approved a phased approach to debt repayment, encompassing cash injections and promissory notes.

This strategic allocation of funds aims to provide immediate relief to power-generating companies (Gencos) and gas suppliers, while also ensuring long-term financial stability within the sector.

Chief Adebayo Adelabu, the Minister of Power, revealed details of the rescue package at the 8th Africa Energy Marketplace held in Abuja.

Speaking at the event themed, “Towards Nigeria’s Sustainable Energy Future,” Adelabu emphasized the government’s commitment to eliminating bottlenecks and fostering policy coherence within the power sector.

One of the key highlights of the rescue package is the allocation of funds from the Gas Stabilisation Fund to settle outstanding debts owed to gas suppliers.

This critical step not only addresses the immediate liquidity concerns of gas companies but also paves the way for enhanced cooperation between gas suppliers and power generators.

Furthermore, the rescue package includes provisions for addressing the legacy debts owed to power-generating companies.

By utilizing future royalties and income streams from the gas sub-sector, the government aims to provide a sustainable solution that incentivizes investment in power generation capacity.

The announcement of the N3.3 trillion rescue package comes amidst ongoing efforts to revitalize Nigeria’s power sector.

Recent initiatives, including tariff adjustments and regulatory reforms, underscore the government’s determination to overcome longstanding challenges and enhance the sector’s effectiveness.

However, challenges persist, as highlighted by Barth Nnaji, a former Minister of Power, who emphasized the need for a robust transmission network to support increased power generation.

Nnaji’s advocacy for a super grid underscores the importance of infrastructure development in ensuring the reliability and stability of Nigeria’s power supply.

In light of these developments, stakeholders have welcomed the unveiling of the N3.3 trillion rescue package as a decisive step towards transforming Nigeria’s power sector.

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Nigeria’s Inflation Climbs to 28-Year High at 33.69% in April

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Nigeria's Inflation Rate - Investors King

Nigeria is grappling with soaring inflation as data from the statistics agency revealed that the country’s headline inflation surged to a new 28-year high in April.

The consumer price index, which measures the inflation rate, rose to 33.69% year-on-year, up from 33.20% in March.

This surge in inflation comes amid a series of economic challenges, including subsidy cuts on petrol and electricity and twice devaluing the local naira currency by the administration of President Bola Tinubu.

The sharp rise in inflation has been a pressing concern for policymakers, leading the central bank to take measures to address the growing price pressures.

The central bank has raised interest rates twice this year, including its largest hike in around 17 years, in an attempt to contain inflationary pressures.

Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria has indicated that interest rates will remain high for as long as necessary to bring down inflation.

The bank is set to hold another rate-setting meeting next week to review its policy stance.

A report by the National Bureau of Statistics highlighted that the food and non-alcoholic beverages category continued to be the biggest contributor to inflation in April.

Food inflation, which accounts for the bulk of the inflation basket, rose to 40.53% in annual terms, up from 40.01% in March.

In response to the economic challenges posed by soaring inflation, President Tinubu’s administration has announced a salary hike of up to 35% for civil servants to ease the pressure on government workers.

Also, to support vulnerable households, the government has restarted a direct cash transfer program and distributed at least 42,000 tons of grains such as corn and millet.

The rising inflation rate presents significant challenges for Nigeria’s economy, impacting the purchasing power of consumers and adding strains to household budgets.

As the government continues to grapple with inflationary pressures, policymakers are faced with the task of implementing measures to stabilize prices and mitigate the adverse effects on the economy and livelihoods of citizens.

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