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Forex Weekly Outlook April 24-28

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  • Forex Weekly Outlook April 24-28

The US dollar plunged against most of its counterparts last week following worse than expected economic data. The retail sales, consumer spending, which has been supporting the economy fell (-0.2%) for a second month after a 0.3 percent decline in February. Indicating that the economy is probably not ripe or ready for a June rate hike as that would worsen retail sales and further plunged consumer spending while dragging the seemingly weak inflation (-0.3%) along.

However, if Donald Trump’s tax plan due this week is well-received and projected to boost infrastructure, the U.S. market would experience renewed confidence and surge in the U.S. dollar and currencies of commodity-dependent economies as demand for steel to build ports, bridges and roads will drive demand for iron ore.

In the Euro-area, the economy accelerated to its fastest pace in 6 years in April. Signaling that the manufacturing and services sectors are growing better than previously anticipated –this is after data showed both the purchasing manager index for manufacturing and services sectors rose from 56.4 in March to 56.7 in April. But a Le Pen win in French election could deal a blow to the current progress as a call for Frexit would not merely tear the struggling region apart but forced other nations within the union to secede.

Therefore, in an effort to curtail eventualities, the European Central Bank officials have signalled their readiness to support commercial banks in the region to counter market tension that may arise as both the centrist Emmanuel Macron and the far-right leader Marine Le Pen face-off on May 7.

In the U.K., the economy has started showing signs of Brexit effect after data revealed retail sales plunged 1.8 percent in March alone. Plunging total sales to 7-year low in the first quarter of the year. Also, the manufacturing and construction sectors contracted in February, while house price growth slowed to its weakest in 4 years. This further underscores the loss of economic momentum ahead of June 8 election.

Generally, uncertainty remains high across global financial markets this week. Therefore, high volatility should be expected across the board — especially on Wednesday when President Donald Trump is expected to announce his tax plan. Also, the conundrum going on in the Euro-area continued to create doubt as to the future of the region and has started weighing on business sentiment as investors look to decipher political-tussle going on in France.

This week, I will be looking at EURGBP and AUDJPY.

EURGBP

This pair is unique for two reasons, one after forming head and shoulders pattern it has failed to break below the neckline at 0.8303 support levels since June. Two, the political tussle going on in the Euro-area is self-directory for this pair. Meaning it will dictate its future direction.

Forex Weekly Outlook April 24-28

Accordingly, an Emmanuel Macron overwhelming support ahead of May 7 would buttress EURGBP rally as it would guaranty France membership in the European Union to investors and further position the nation as the next financial power-house after Brexit. However, Le Pen lead would weaken the Euro-single currency as businesses and investors look to minimise risk exposure by cutting new jobs and whining down on investments amid weak business sentiment.

Therefore, I will be looking to buy this pair above 0.8471 resistance level if Macron increases his lead substantially. This is because the pound is weak and can only get worse ahead of June 8 election going by the series of recently release economic data that shows the consumer spending that contributed the most to the U.K. economy has started slowing down. Also, the Euro-area economy is growing stronger than previously anticipated and surged to a 6-year high. But if Le Pen increased her current position significantly I would be looking to sell as that would have nullified other factors stated above and paved way for massive sell-off of the Euro-single currency.

AUDJPY

This pair closed as dragonfly doji last week after failing to hit our target at 80.82 support levels. But with Donald Trump tax plan due on Wednesday there is possibility of this pair rallying up if the tax plan is widely accepted — as it would bolster Australia’s economic outlook and aid Aussie dollar attractiveness along with a surge in global iron ore prices.

Forex Weekly Outlook April 24-28

Therefore, I will be standing aside to better monitor price action along with the U.S. fiscal policy. One because I do not see this pair breaking 85.42 resistance levels that double as 20-day moving average or topple 15-month high at 88.17 resistance. However, I will look to sell this pair peradventure tax plan failed to meet expectation like previous Donald Trump fiscal policies with 80.82 support (previous target) as the target.

Happy New Week.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Naira

Dollar to Naira Black Market Today, April 24th, 2024

As of April 24th, 2024, the exchange rate for the US dollar to the Nigerian Naira stands at 1 USD to 1,260 NGN in the black market, also referred to as the parallel market or Aboki fx.

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naira

As of April 24th, 2024, the exchange rate for the US dollar to the Nigerian Naira stands at 1 USD to 1,260 NGN in the black market, also referred to as the parallel market or Aboki fx.

For those engaging in currency transactions in the Lagos Parallel Market (Black Market), buyers purchase a dollar for N1,250 and sell it at N1,240 on Tuesday, April 23rd, 2024 based on information from Bureau De Change (BDC).

Meaning, the Naira exchange rate declined slightly when compared to today’s rate below.

This black market rate signifies the value at which individuals can trade their dollars for Naira outside the official or regulated exchange channels.

Investors and participants closely monitor these parallel market rates for a more immediate reflection of currency dynamics.

How Much is Dollar to Naira Today in the Black Market?

Kindly be aware that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not acknowledge the existence of the parallel market, commonly referred to as the black market.

The CBN has advised individuals seeking to participate in Forex transactions to utilize official banking channels.

Black Market Dollar to Naira Exchange Rate

  • Buying Rate: N1,260
  • Selling Rate: N1,250

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Naira

Nigeria’s Naira Dips 5.3% Against Dollar, Raises Concerns Over Reserve Levels

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New Naira notes

Nigerian Naira depreciated by 5.3% against the US dollar as concerns over declining foreign reserves raise questions about the central bank’s ability to sustain liquidity.

The local currency has now declined for the third consecutive day since the Naira retreated from its three-month high on Friday shortly after Bloomberg pointed out that the Naira gains were inversely proportional to foreign reserves’ growth.

According to data from Lagos-based FMDQ, the naira’s value dropped precipitously, halting its recent impressive performance.

The unofficial market saw an even steeper decline of 6%, extending the currency’s retreat over the past three trading days to a staggering 17%.

Abubakar Muhammed, Chief Executive of Forward Marketing Bureau de Change Ltd., expressed concerns over the sharp decline, highlighting the insufficient supply of dollars in the market.

Muhammed noted that despite a 27% increase in traded volume at the foreign exchange market on Monday, the supply remained inadequate, forcing the naira to soften further while excess demand shifted to the unofficial market.

The dwindling foreign exchange reserves have been a cause for alarm, with Nigeria’s gross dollar reserves steadily declining for 17 consecutive days to reach $32 billion as of April 19, the lowest level since September 2017.

This worrisome trend has raised questions about the adequacy of dollar inflows to rebuild reserves, especially after the central bank settled overdue dollar obligations earlier in the year.

Samir Gadio, Head of Africa Strategy at Standard Chartered Bank, pointed out that while the naira had been supported by onshore dollar selling, the rally was likely overextended.

Gadio warned that the emergence of a dislocation in the market, with domestic participants selling dollars at increasingly lower spot levels was unsustainable and necessitated a correction.

The central bank’s efforts to stabilize the naira have been evident with interventions aimed at improving liquidity.

However, the effectiveness of these measures remains uncertain, particularly as the central bank offered dollars to bureau de change operators at a rate 17% below the official rate tracked by FMDQ.

Analysts, including Ayodeji Dawodu from Banctrust Investment Bank, foresee further challenges ahead, predicting that the naira will likely stabilize around 1,500 against the dollar by year-end.

Dawodu emphasized the importance of stabilizing the currency to attract strong foreign capital inflows, underscoring the significance of sustainable monetary policies in Nigeria’s economic recovery.

As Nigeria grapples with the repercussions of the naira’s depreciation and declining foreign reserves, policymakers face mounting pressure to implement measures that ensure stability and foster confidence in the economy.

The road ahead remains uncertain, with the fate of the naira intricately tied to Nigeria’s ability to address underlying economic vulnerabilities and bolster investor trust.

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Naira

CBN Sells Fresh Dollar to BDCs at N1,021/$

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Bureau De Change Operator

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has once again initiated direct sales of dollars to licensed Bureau De Change (BDC) operators across the country.

The latest circular from the apex bank announces the sale of $10,000 to each BDC at a rate of N1,021 per dollar.

This is the second round of such sales this month and the fourth in the current year.

The directive mandates BDCs to sell the allocated dollars to eligible end-users at a spread not exceeding 1.5 percent above the purchase price, translating to a maximum selling price of N1,036.15 per dollar.

Addressing concerns about adherence to guidelines, the CBN said it is important for BDC operators to work within the prescribed framework.

The intervention targets retail-end transactions, including travel allowances, tuition fees, and medical payments, among others.

BDCs are instructed to commence payment of the Naira deposit to designated CBN accounts and submit necessary documentation for FX disbursement at respective CBN branches.

This latest initiative follows previous interventions by the CBN, including the sale of $10,000 to BDCs earlier this month at N1,101 per dollar. Such measures aim to shore up the Naira’s value and ensure stability in the forex market amid economic uncertainties.

The CBN’s sustained efforts to provide adequate forex liquidity underscore its commitment to safeguarding the country’s currency and facilitating seamless foreign exchange transactions for businesses and individuals alike.

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