- Forex Weekly Outlook April 24-28
The US dollar plunged against most of its counterparts last week following worse than expected economic data. The retail sales, consumer spending, which has been supporting the economy fell (-0.2%) for a second month after a 0.3 percent decline in February. Indicating that the economy is probably not ripe or ready for a June rate hike as that would worsen retail sales and further plunged consumer spending while dragging the seemingly weak inflation (-0.3%) along.
However, if Donald Trump’s tax plan due this week is well-received and projected to boost infrastructure, the U.S. market would experience renewed confidence and surge in the U.S. dollar and currencies of commodity-dependent economies as demand for steel to build ports, bridges and roads will drive demand for iron ore.
In the Euro-area, the economy accelerated to its fastest pace in 6 years in April. Signaling that the manufacturing and services sectors are growing better than previously anticipated –this is after data showed both the purchasing manager index for manufacturing and services sectors rose from 56.4 in March to 56.7 in April. But a Le Pen win in French election could deal a blow to the current progress as a call for Frexit would not merely tear the struggling region apart but forced other nations within the union to secede.
Therefore, in an effort to curtail eventualities, the European Central Bank officials have signalled their readiness to support commercial banks in the region to counter market tension that may arise as both the centrist Emmanuel Macron and the far-right leader Marine Le Pen face-off on May 7.
In the U.K., the economy has started showing signs of Brexit effect after data revealed retail sales plunged 1.8 percent in March alone. Plunging total sales to 7-year low in the first quarter of the year. Also, the manufacturing and construction sectors contracted in February, while house price growth slowed to its weakest in 4 years. This further underscores the loss of economic momentum ahead of June 8 election.
Generally, uncertainty remains high across global financial markets this week. Therefore, high volatility should be expected across the board — especially on Wednesday when President Donald Trump is expected to announce his tax plan. Also, the conundrum going on in the Euro-area continued to create doubt as to the future of the region and has started weighing on business sentiment as investors look to decipher political-tussle going on in France.
This week, I will be looking at EURGBP and AUDJPY.
This pair is unique for two reasons, one after forming head and shoulders pattern it has failed to break below the neckline at 0.8303 support levels since June. Two, the political tussle going on in the Euro-area is self-directory for this pair. Meaning it will dictate its future direction.
Accordingly, an Emmanuel Macron overwhelming support ahead of May 7 would buttress EURGBP rally as it would guaranty France membership in the European Union to investors and further position the nation as the next financial power-house after Brexit. However, Le Pen lead would weaken the Euro-single currency as businesses and investors look to minimise risk exposure by cutting new jobs and whining down on investments amid weak business sentiment.
Therefore, I will be looking to buy this pair above 0.8471 resistance level if Macron increases his lead substantially. This is because the pound is weak and can only get worse ahead of June 8 election going by the series of recently release economic data that shows the consumer spending that contributed the most to the U.K. economy has started slowing down. Also, the Euro-area economy is growing stronger than previously anticipated and surged to a 6-year high. But if Le Pen increased her current position significantly I would be looking to sell as that would have nullified other factors stated above and paved way for massive sell-off of the Euro-single currency.
This pair closed as dragonfly doji last week after failing to hit our target at 80.82 support levels. But with Donald Trump tax plan due on Wednesday there is possibility of this pair rallying up if the tax plan is widely accepted — as it would bolster Australia’s economic outlook and aid Aussie dollar attractiveness along with a surge in global iron ore prices.
Therefore, I will be standing aside to better monitor price action along with the U.S. fiscal policy. One because I do not see this pair breaking 85.42 resistance levels that double as 20-day moving average or topple 15-month high at 88.17 resistance. However, I will look to sell this pair peradventure tax plan failed to meet expectation like previous Donald Trump fiscal policies with 80.82 support (previous target) as the target.
Happy New Week.
Akinwumi Adesina Extols Africans in Diaspora on Cross-Border Remittance
African Development Bank (AfDB) President, Akinwumi Adeshina has extolled the tenacity and impacts of Africans in Diaspora on cross-border remittance.
According to the AfDB President, Africans in the diaspora are the continent’s largest financiers through their yearly remittances.
Speaking at an event organised by the Bank in collaboration with the African Union Commission, Adeshina noted that cross-border remittance into Africa is more than development assistance to the continent.
Investors King earlier reported that remittance into Nigeria and other countries in the sub-Sahara Africa region hits $53 billion in 2022.
The AfDB President said, “The value of remittances from the African diaspora doubled from $37 billion in 2010 to $87 billion in 2019, reaching $95.6 billion by 2021. Yet official development assistance to Africa in 2021 was $35 billion, or 36% of the remittances from the diaspora”.
Adeshina added that Egypt and Nigeria are among the top-ten remittance recipients globally, with $31.5 billion and $19.2 billion, respectively in 2021.
While speaking on the advantage of cross-border remittance to the African continent, the AfDB president noted that remittances have helped to meet financial, food, education, and health needs of many Africans, “it as well as serve as countercyclical sources of finance,” he said.
“The African diaspora has become the largest financier in Africa! And it is not debt, it is 100% gifts or grants, a new form of concessional financing that is the key for livelihood and security for millions of Africans” he added.
Similarly, Adeshina further positioned the need to eliminate premium charges on cross-border remittance into Africa. He noted that cross-border into Africa is twice what is it for South Asia.
He concluded that the Africans in diaspora can add more than remittance and investment, noting that they have skills, knowledge and know-how which can be needed for the development of the continent.
“They can help build world-class universities, and they can be mentors for the new generation of Africans,” he said.
E-Naira Transaction Volume Rises to N5 Billion in November Amid Intensified Campaign
More Nigerians embrace eNaira wallet as CBN takes adoption campaign across the nation
The Central Bank of Nigeria, (CBN) has disclosed that e-Naira transaction volume rose to a record N5 billion in the month of November following a series of campaigns initiated to encourage adoption.
Investors King had earlier reported how the e-Naira adoption team visited a number of parks in Abuja and the University of Lagos among other locations to drive the adoption of the digital currency.
Speaking at the Second Edition of the Africa Cashless Payment Conference, CBN’s Director of Information and Technology, Hajiya Rakiya Mohammed noted that transaction on the e-naira platform does not attract any charges.
She stated that Nigeria’s financial ecosystem is large to accommodate everyone.
Hajia Rakiya added that the e-Naira platform can be operated in any of Nigeria’s major local languages, stating that onboarding onto the e-Naira platform is a simple process.
She further stressed that the primary goal of the e-naira is to reduce the amount of cash in circulation, thereby downsizing the cost of producing paper currency, increase in revenue and direct disbursement to citizens.
Meanwhile, the e-Naira circulation has reached N401.82 million as more Nigerians embraced the digital currency.
It could be recalled that on October 25, 2021, CBN launched the e-Naira making Nigeria the first African country to have a digital currency.
During the unveiling of the e-Naira in Abuja, President Muhammadu Buhari stated that the digital naira would increase remittances, foster cross-border trade, improve financial inclusion and enable the government to make welfare payments more easily.
On his part, the CBN Governor, Godwin Emefiele disclosed that the e-Naira offered Nigerians endless possibilities in using financial services.
While admonishing more Nigerians to embrace the digital naira, Hajia Rakiya noted that “both banked and unbanked can use it, and it can be done through USSD *997#. We have integrated it with telecoms and NIBBS instant payments plus integration with money transfer operations so you can use e-naira for cross border”.
CBN Will Redesign Naira Notes Every Five to Eight Years; Say Emefiele
The central bank will henceforth redesign the nation’s legal tender every five to eight years
Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Godwin Emefiele has said the bank will henceforth redesign the nation’s legal tender every five to eight years.
The apex bank governor revealed at the unveiling of the new naira notes on Tuesday.
Godwin Emefiele explained that the naira redesign is in line with global best practice noting that the naira needed to be redesigned and re-issued every five to eight years.
According to the CBN governor, previous administrations lacked the political will to approve the redesign of the naira notes. Stating that it is regrettable that the naira has not been redesigned for the past 19 years.
“In the past, I have to confess that attempts by the CBN to redesign and re-issue the naira notes have been resisted. It is only President Muhammadu Buhari that has exhibited the courage to do so,” the CBN governor stated.
Emefiele added that going forward, naira notes will be redesigned at intervals to address some peculiar issues.
“After today, the CBN will begin to redesign and reissue the naira every five to eight years,” he said.
Investors King had earlier reported that President Muhammadu Buhari unveiled the redesigned naira notes at the Federal Executive Council (FEC) meeting today.
Among those who joined the president with the unveiling include the CBN governor and the EFCC chairman.
Recall, in October, the CBN announced it will redesign the N200, N500 and N1,000 notes in line with its mandate.
Meanwhile, the CBN governor has disclosed that the new naira notes can not be counterfeited because of the features embedded in them.
Similarly, he added that security agencies would be monitoring people making withdrawals at the counter to sniff out money laundering and unravel illegal usage.
“The CBN has moved to a cashless economy. We will restrain the volume of cash someone will withdraw over the counter. We will follow up with the person’s data to know the reason for such withdrawal,” he concluded.
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