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Plenty of Beauty in U.S. Jobs Data Beneath Ugly Main Number

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  • Plenty of Beauty in U.S. Jobs Data Beneath Ugly Main Number

For the March U.S. employment report, with its ugly headline payrolls number, it’s what’s inside that counts.

While the gain of 98,000 jobs in a survey of businesses and government agencies was the weakest since May and below all analysts’ forecasts, many accompanying details showed a solid labor market. The jobless rate, derived from a separate survey of households, fell to the lowest in almost a decade even as workforce participation was unchanged, while a measure of underemployment reached a fresh post-recession low, boding well for further wage increases.

“Aside from the payroll data, all the other underlying details are encouraging,” said Tom Simons, an economist at Jefferies LLC in New York. “People are re-entering the labor force and it looks like they’re getting jobs right away. The participation rate being steady is encouraging there.”

The March data from the Labor Department on Friday also were challenged by weather anomalies — a storm in the Northeast during the survey week and more seasonable temperatures after two warmer months — that had economists bracing for at least some slowdown in payrolls from a strong start to the year. Weather effects probably explain about 70,000 of the difference in payroll gains between February and March, according to Goldman Sachs economists.

The reassuring figures elsewhere in the report keep the Federal Reserve on track to continue plans for two more interest-rate increases this year as the labor market continues to tighten.

“The Fed is going to look past the March weakness — they’re going to continue to paint a positive picture of the labor market,” said Ryan Sweet, an economist at Moody’s Analytics Inc. in West Chester, Pennsylvania. “The trend in job growth remains solid and the overall economy is still doing well.”

Markets appeared to be relatively unfazed by the payroll number. The S&P 500 Index of stocks was up 0.2 percent as of 1:50 p.m. in New York.

Construction, Retail

Even so, there wasn’t much to sing about in the March payroll figures. The employment increase included a paltry 6,000 gain in construction jobs and 11,000 in manufacturing after both sectors showed big gains in January and February. Among services jobs, retailers were hit hard last month. That industry showed the weakest two months for hiring since the end of 2009, battered at least in part by the broader trend of Americans flocking to online merchants rather than brick-and-mortar stores.

But for a labor market that’s already challenged by a dwindling supply of unemployed workers, the report may be flashing more warning signs of overheating than of cooling. The jobless rate fell for what economists often deem “the right reasons” — meaning that more people were employed and fewer were unemployed — not as a result of Americans fleeing the labor force in discouragement, or retirement.

While President Donald Trump has condemned the headline unemployment rate as a “phony” measure on the campaign trail and “ridiculous” earlier this week, the gauges that his administration has favored also strengthened in March.

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has cited the so-called U-5 rate, which includes discouraged workers as well as a group called marginally attached workers, who aren’t working or actively looking for work but want a job. That rate declined in March to 5.4 percent, the lowest since May 2007. The number of discouraged workers, not looking for work because they believe none is available, fell to 460,000 for the second-lowest since August 2008.

The U-6 rate, which in addition to the U-5’s components includes those working part-time for economic reasons — meaning they would prefer a full-time job — also was a bright spot. The measure fell to 8.9 percent, the lowest since December 2007.

“The president and I have spent a lot of time talking about the U-6 number,” Gary Cohn, director of the White House’s National Economic Council, said on Bloomberg Television after the report. “We’re happy to see that number below 9 percent.”

The figures didn’t impress everyone. Barclays Plc economist Rob Martin called it “a weak report with no silver linings” and labeled the decline in the unemployment rate a “catch-up” with data from the payrolls survey. The data point to the further divergence between “soft” sentiment surveys that are strengthening and the “hard” figures that have been slow to catch up, he said.

“We look for labor markets to accelerate in the near term, but should that hope fail, we would expect activity to slow as well,” Martin wrote in a note, saying that monthly payroll gains in the 200,000 range “are consistent with continued economic expansion.”

The two-month revisions to payrolls subtracted 38,000 jobs, leaving the average so far in 2017 at 178,000. That’s in line with the 187,000 monthly average for all of last year.

Whether the tight job market triggers the long-awaited wage gains in this almost-eight-year-old economic expansion remains a puzzle. Average hourly earnings increased 2.7 percent in March from a year earlier, just a touch above the average since the start of 2016. That, more than weaker-than-expected employment, might merit more attention in the months ahead.

While wage growth is modest, “there’s no reason to panic” about the hiring figures, Sweet of Moody’s Analytics said. “All in all, it’s right around what we need” to keep up with population growth and to keep the unemployment rate steady.

CEO/Founder Investors King Ltd, a foreign exchange research analyst, contributing author on New York-based Talk Markets and Investing.com, with over a decade experience in the global financial markets.

Crude Oil

Crude Oil Hits $71.34 After Saudi Largest Oil Facilities Were Attacked

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Brent Crude Oil Rises to $71.34 Following Missile Attack on Saudi Largest Oil Facilities

Brent crude, against which Nigerian oil is priced, jumped to $71.34 a barrel on Monday during the Asian trading session following a report that Saudi Arabia’s largest oil facilities were attacked by missiles and drones fired on Sunday by Houthi military in Yemen.

On Monday, the Saudi energy ministry said one of the world’s largest offshore oil loading facilities at Ras Tanura was attacked and a ballistic missile targeted Saudi Aramco facilities.

One of the petroleum tank areas at the Ras Tanura Port in the Eastern Region, one of the largest oil ports in the world, was attacked this morning by a drone, coming from the sea,” the ministry said in a statement released by the official Saudi Press Agency.

It also stated that shrapnel from a ballistic missile dropped near Aramco’s residential compound in Eastern Dhahran.

Such acts of sabotage do not only target the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, but also the security and stability of energy supplies to the world, and therefore, the global economy,” a ministry spokesman said in a statement on state media.

Oil price surged because the market interpreted the occurrence as supply sabotage given Saudi is the largest OPEC producer. A decline in supply is positive for the oil industry.

However, Brent crude oil pulled back to $69.49 per barrel at 12:34 pm Nigerian time because of the $1.9 trillion stimulus packed passed in the U.S.

Market experts are projecting that the stimulus will boost the United States economy and support U.S crude oil producers in the near-term, this they expect to boost crude oil production from share and disrupt OPEC strategy.

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Crude Oil

A Loud Blast Heard in Dhahran, Saudi Arabia’s Largest Crude Oil Production Site

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Loud Blast Heard in Dhahran, Saudi Arabia’s Largest Crude Oil Production Site

Two residents from the eastern city of Dhahran, Saudi Arabia, on Sunday said they heard a loud blast, but they are yet to know the cause, according to a Reuters report.

Saudi’s Eastern province is home to the kingdom’s largest crude oil production and export facilities of Saudi Aramco.

A blast in any of the facilities in that region could hurt global oil supplies and bolster oil prices above $70 per barrel in the first half of the year.

One of the residents said the explosion took place around 8:30 pm Saudi time while the other resident claimed the time was around 8:00 pm.

However, Saudi authorities are yet to confirm or respond to the story.

 

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Crude Oil

Brent Crude Oil Approaches $70 Per Barrel on Friday

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Crude oil

Nigerian Oil Approaches $70 Per Barrel Following OPEC+ Production Cuts Extension

Brent crude oil, against which Nigerian oil is priced, rose to $69 on Friday at 3:55 pm Nigerian time.

Oil price jumped after OPEC and allies, known as OPEC plus, agreed to role-over crude oil production cuts to further reduce global oil supplies and artificially sustain oil price in a move experts said could stoke inflationary pressure.

Brent crude oil rose from $63.86 per barrel on Wednesday to $69 per barrel on Friday as energy investors became more optimistic about the oil outlook.

While certain experts are worried that U.S crude oil production will eventually hurt OPEC strategy once the economy fully opens, few experts are saying production in the world’s largest economy won’t hit pre-pandemic highs.

According to Vicki Hollub, the CEO of Occidental, U.S oil production may not return to pre-pandemic levels given a shift in corporates’ value.

“I do believe that most companies have committed to value growth, rather than production growth,” she said during a CNBC Evolve conversation with Brian Sullivan. “And so I do believe that that’s going to be part of the reason that oil production in the United States does not get back to 13 million barrels a day.”

Hollub believes corporate organisations will focus on optimizing present operations and facilities, rather than seeking growth at all costs. She, however, noted that oil prices rebounded faster than expected, largely due to China, India and United States’ growing consumption.

The recovery looks more V-shaped than we had originally thought it would be,” she said. Occidental previous projection had oil production recovering to pre-pandemic levels by the middle of 2022. The CEO Now believes demand will return by the end of this year or the first few months of 2022.

I do believe we’re headed for a much healthier supply and demand environment” she said.

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