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U.K. Borrowing Slowdown May Not Be Enough to Allay Concerns

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  • U.K. Borrowing Slowdown May Not Be Enough to Allay Concerns

U.K. consumers are borrowing less freely as inflation bites and Britain prepares for Brexit, though the slowdown may not be enough to dispel concerns over the level of personal debt.

Unsecured lending growth slowed to 1.4 billion pounds ($1.7 billion) in February, below the 1.6 billion pounds averaged over the previous six months, data published by the Bank of England Wednesday show. It left the annual rate at 10.5 percent, and borrowing on credit cards grew at the fastest pace in 11 years.

The figures come on the day that Prime Minister Theresa May is due to serve formal notice that Britain is leaving the European Union, confronting households with two years of uncertainty at a time when incomes are already being eroded by accelerating inflation.

That’s making consumers a little more cautious, but policy makers and analysts remained concerned that the buildup of debt is unsustainable. The ratio of household debt to disposable income is high by international standards and has started to pick up again, after falling from about 160 percent before the 2008 financial crisis.

U.K. regulators are to review credit quality and lending standards, the Bank of England announced on Monday. The move came as Citigroup warned that consumers are taking out more unsecured debt than they can pay back, putting banks such as Lloyds Banking Group Plc and Barclays Plc at risk of loan losses.

One area of concern is the increased use of interest-free balance transfers on credit cards, which can encourage consumers to borrow heavily. The latest figures show credit-card debt climbed 9.3 percent in February from a year earlier, the fastest pace since February 2006. Other forms of consumer finance, including personal loans, overdrafts and car lending, grew an annual 11.1 percent.

Recent figures point to a slowdown in consumer spending, which has driven the economy since the June Brexit vote. Retail sales fell at their fastest pace in seven years in the three months through February and consumer confidence fell last month. Food and fuel prices are rising rapidly as a result of the 17 percent decline in sterling since the referendum.

Borrowing has in part been fueled by falling borrowing costs. The interest rate on a 10,000-pound personal loan fell to 3.66 percent in February, the lowest since records began in 1995.

The BOE said mortgage approvals fell to 68,315 in February, pointing to a housing market set for steady rather than spectacular growth this year. Net mortgage lending stood at 3.5 billion pounds.

Lending to non-financial firms fell by 1.8 billion pound last month, weaker than average. Overseas investors bought a net 742 million pounds of gilts following net sales of 7.6 billion pounds in January.

CEO/Founder Investors King Ltd, a foreign exchange research analyst, contributing author on New York-based Talk Markets and Investing.com, with over a decade experience in the global financial markets.

Crude Oil

A Threat to Revenue As Nigeria’s Largest Importer of Crude, India slash Imports By $39.5B

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Nigeria’s revenue earning capacity has come under threat following the reduction of importation of crude oil by India.

India, Nigeria’s largest crude oil importer, reduced crude oil imports by $39.5bn in April, compared to the same time the previous year, data from India’s Petroleum Planning & Analysis Cell showed.

According to the Indian High Commission in Nigeria, India’s crude oil imports from Nigeria in 2020 amounted to $10.03bn.

This represented 17 percent of Nigeria’s total crude exports for the year according to the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation, as quoted by OilPrice.com.

As Nigeria’s largest importer of crude oil, lockdowns in India’s major cities from the COVID-19 surge in April had ripple effects on Nigeria’s oil sales.

The NNPC was prompted to drop the official standard price of its main export streams, Bonny Light, Brass River, Erha, and Qua Iboe, by 61-62 cents per barrel below its April 2021 prices. They traded at $0.9, $0.8, $0.65, $0.97 per barrel respectively, below dated Brent, the international benchmark, as Oilprice.com showed.

India had been buying the not-too-light and not-too-heavy Nigerian crudes that suited its refiners.

Reuters reported that the Indian Oil Corporation’s owned refineries were operating at 95 percent capacity in April, down from 100 percent at the same time the previous month.

An official at the IOC was quoted as saying, “If cases continue to rise and curbs are intensified, we may see cuts in refinery runs and lower demand after a month.” Hundreds of seafarers risked being stuck at sea beyond the expiry of their contracts, a large independent crude ship owner reportedly told Bloomberg.

India reportedly bought more American and Canadian oil at the expense of Africa and the Middle East, reducing purchases from members of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to around 2.86 million barrels per day.

This squeezed the group’s share of imports to 72 percent from around 80 percent previously, as India’s refiners were diversifying purchases to boost margins, according to Reuters.

India also plans to increase local crude oil production and reduce import expenses as its population swells, according to Bloomberg.

A deregulation plan by the Narendra Modi-led government to boost national production to 40 million tonnes of crude oil by 2023/2024, an increase of almost eight million tonnes, had already been initiated.

According to Business Today, an Indian paper, the country currently imports 82 percent of its oil needs, which amounted to $87bn in 2019.

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Energy

Invest Africa and DLA Piper Partner to Support ESG Best Practice in African Renewable Energy Projects

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Invest Africa - Investors King

The global law firm, DLA Piper, has partnered with Invest Africa, the leading trade and investment platform for African markets, to support the development of ESG best practice in African renewable energy projects.

Clear Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) targets and measurements have become an increasingly important part of fundraising as investors seek to align their portfolios with sustainable growth. For a continent boasting ample natural resources, this presents a significant opportunity for Africa’s green energy sector. However, renewable does not always equal sustainable and developing and articulating ESG metrics can pose a significant challenge to projects as they prepare investment rounds.

The project will assemble experts from the worlds of impact investment, development finance and law. Across a series of online meetings, participants will discuss strategies to improve ESG practices in African renewable projects from both a fundraising and operational perspective.

Amongst those speaking in the inaugural session on Thursday 13th May are Cathy Oxby, Chief Commercial Officer, Africa GreencoDr. Valeria Biurrun-Zaumm, Senior Investment Manager, DEGOrli Arav, Managing Director – Facility For Energy Inclusion (FEI) – Lion’s Head Global PartnersBeatrice Nyabira, Partner, DLA Piper Africa, Kenya (IKM Advocates) and Natasha Luther-Jones, Partner, Global Co-Chair of Energy and Natural Resources, International Co-Head, Sustainability and ESG, DLA Piper.

Veronica Bolton-Smith, COO of Invest Africa said, “Africa is particularly vulnerable to the impact of climate change despite contributing very little to global emissions. As the price of renewables fall, they will form an ever more important part of Africa’s electrification. In this context, it is essential that projects be given the tools to apply best practice in ESG not only from an environmental perspective but also in terms of good governance, fair working conditions and contribution to social inclusion. I look forward to working closely with DLA Piper on this important topic.”

Natasha Luther-Jones, Global Co-Chair Energy and Natural Resources and International Co-Head Sustainability and ESG at DLA Piper also commented, “Climate change is one of the biggest challenges companies, and people, face today and when we look at its reduction – whether that be in how we power our devices, what we eat or how we dress, where we live or how we work – all roads come back to the need to increase the amount of accessible, and affordable, clean energy. However, renewable energy companies are not automatically sustainable as sustainability is a focus on all ESG factors, not just environmental. We know the need for renewable energy is only going to continue to rise, and therefore so will the number and size of renewable energy companies. The additional challenge is to make sure they are truly sustainable organisations and that’s what we’re excited about discussing during the webinar.”

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Crude Oil

Oil Posts 2% Gain for the Week Despite India Virus Surge

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Crude Oil - Investors King

Oil prices steadied on Friday and were set for a weekly gain against the backdrop of optimism over a global economic recovery, though the COVID-19 crisis in India capped prices.

Brent crude futures settled 0.28% higher at $68.28 per barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude advanced 0.29% to $64.90 per barrel.

Both Brent and WTI are on track for second consecutive weekly gains as easing restrictions on movement in the United States and Europe, recovering factory operations and coronavirus vaccinations pave the way for a revival in fuel demand.

In China, data showed export growth accelerated unexpectedly in April while a private survey pointed to strong expansion in service sector activity.

However, crude imports by the world’s biggest buyer fell 0.2% in April from a year earlier to 40.36 million tonnes, or 9.82 million barrels per day (bpd), the lowest since December.

In the United States, the world’s largest oil consumer, jobless claims have dropped, signalling the labour market recovery has entered a new phase as the economy recovers.

The recovery in oil demand, however, has been uneven as surging COVID-19 cases in India reduce fuel consumption in the world’s third-largest oil importer and consumer.

“Brent came within a whisker of breaking past $70 a barrel this week but failed at the final hurdle as demand uncertainty dragged on prices,” said Stephen Brennock at oil brokerage PVM.

The resurgence of COVID-19 in countries such as India, Japan and Thailand is hindering gasoline demand recovery, energy consultancy FGE said in a client note, though some of the lost demand has been offset by countries such as China, where recent Labour Day holiday travel surpassed 2019 levels.

“Gasoline demand in the U.S. and parts of Europe is faring relatively well,” FGE said.

“Further out, we could see demand pick up as lockdowns are eased and pent-up demand is released during the summer driving season.”

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