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Analysts Hail CBN’s Naira Defence as Rate for PTA, Others is Adjusted to N360/$

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Naira - Investors King
  • Analysts Hail CBN’s Naira Defence as Rate for PTA, Others is Adjusted to N360/$

Financial market analysts have welcomed Monday’s decision by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to lower the naira exchange rate for retail invisibles such as business and personal travel allowances, school fees and medical fees to N360 to the dollar, from N375.

Describing the move as a show of strength by the central bank and its capacity to defend the naira, they however cautioned the bank to be conscious of its maturing obligations and potential risks in the global market, especially volatile crude oil prices.

Desirous of alleviating the pains of retail foreign exchange consumers, the CBN directed all banks to immediately begin the sale of FX for business and personal travel allowances, and tuition and medical fees to customers at not more than N360 to the dollar.

The CBN, in a note, explained that it would sell to commercial banks at N357 to the dollar, adding that banks were expected to post the new rates in the banking halls of their branches immediately.

In line with the new directive, the acting Director, Corporate Communications, CBN, Mr. Isaac Okorafor, said the bank would send examiners to commercial banks to ensure the new rates are implemented.

“Banks are prohibited from selling FX funds meant for invisibles to BDCs,” he added.

The CBN also intervened in the FX market with $185 million.

A breakdown showed that it offered $85 million to banks at the rate of N357/$1 for onward sale to retail end users at not more than N360/$1 for invisibles, while $100 million was sold to authorised dealers in the interbank window to meet the requests of wholesale customers.

Reacting to the directive on the sale of FX for retail invisibles, an analyst at Ecobank Nigeria Limited, Mr. Kunle Ezun, described it as a show of strength by the CBN.

“It also shows that they are winning the battle. I now think that when the CBN talked about creating an exchange rate convergence, it was actually referring to the rate for invisibles.

“So, what the CBN has done is to show its capacity to defend the naira. But we expect the CBN to now push through with liquidity,” he added in a phone interview.

Ezun, however, expressed reservations about how much support the CBN would be able to give the naira, saying: “When the external reserves begin to drop, it would raise a red flag.”

The chief executive of Financial Derivatives Limited, Mr. Bismarck Rewane, who also welcomed the revaluation of the rate for PTA and others, said maturing FX forwards should also be of concern to the CBN.

“We must remember that the FX forward contracts would start maturing as from tomorrow (Tuesday). Forward contracts are posted-dated cheques and when they start maturing is when we would start seeing the effects of the intervention on the reserves.

“I think if for anything, we should be using this opportunity to find a fair value for the naira because oil prices have come down and forward contracts are maturing,” Rewane said.

According to him, by adjusting the rate for such invisibles, “the CBN is just subsidising Nigerians”.

“This could lead to a crisis of false expectations. Rather than move the rate up, what I expected the CBN to do was to open up the market, remove all the restrictions and you will see that the currency will find its real value.

“So, first of all, it is a good move, but it is better to be cautiously optimistic rather than getting carried away,” Rewane stated.

The Chief Executive of Cowry Asset Management Limited, Mr. Johnson Chukwu, who also welcomed the adjustment of the naira for retail invisible, said it was a demonstration of the CBN’s capacity to defend the naira.

“I think before the CBN came out with this, it must have measured its capacity to support the naira. Luckily for the CBN, there is tight naira liquidity in the market and that does not encourage speculative activities.

“People do not have cash to buy dollars to hold anymore and that has supported the naira. The key thing is that as the CBN continues to pump dollar liquidity, it would force more people holding dollar positions to sell and that would definitely help the market.

“For now, a lot of people holding dollars are looking for ways to exit,” Chukwu said.

The naira traded at between N385 and N390 to the dollar at some parallel market points in Lagos on Monday.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Crude Oil

IOCs Stick to Dollar Dominance in Crude Oil Transactions with Modular Refineries

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Crude Oil - Investors King

International Oil Companies (IOCs) are standing firm on their stance regarding the currency denomination for crude oil transactions with modular refineries.

Despite earlier indications suggesting a potential shift towards naira payments, IOCs have asserted their preference for dollar dominance in these transactions.

The decision, communicated during a meeting involving indigenous modular refineries and crude oil producers, shows the complex dynamics shaping Nigeria’s energy landscape.

While the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) had previously hinted at the possibility of allowing indigenous refineries to purchase crude oil in either naira or dollars, IOCs have maintained a firm stance favoring the latter.

Under this framework, modular refineries would be required to pay 80% of the crude oil purchase amount in US dollars, with the remaining 20% to be settled in naira.

This arrangement, although subject to ongoing discussions, signals a significant departure from initial expectations of a more balanced currency allocation.

Representatives from the Crude Oil Refinery Owners Association of Nigeria (CORAN) said the decision was not unilaterally imposed but rather reached through deliberations with relevant stakeholders, including the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).

While there were initial hopes of broader flexibility in currency options, the dominant position of IOCs has steered discussions towards a more dollar-centric model.

Despite reservations expressed by some participants, including modular refinery operators, the consensus appears to lean towards accommodating the preferences of major crude oil suppliers.

The development underscores the intricate negotiations and power dynamics shaping Nigeria’s energy sector, with implications for both domestic and international stakeholders.

As discussions continue, attention remains focused on how this decision will impact the operations and financial viability of modular refineries in Nigeria’s evolving oil landscape.

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Energy

Nigeria’s Dangote Refinery Overtakes European Giants in Capacity, Bloomberg Reports

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Aliko Dangote - Investors King

The Dangote Refinery has surpassed some of Europe’s largest refineries in terms of capacity, according to a recent report by Bloomberg.

The $20 billion Dangote refinery, located in Lagos, boasts a refining capacity of 650,000 barrels of petroleum products per day, positioning it as a formidable player in the global refining industry.

Bloomberg’s data highlighted that the Dangote refinery’s capacity exceeds that of Shell’s Pernis refinery in the Netherlands by over 246,000 barrels per day. Making Dangote’s facility a significant contender in the refining industry.

The report also underscored the scale of Dangote’s refinery compared to other prominent European refineries.

For instance, the TotalEnergies Antwerp refining facility in Belgium can refine 338,000 barrels per day, while the GOI Energy ISAB refinery in Italy was built with a refining capacity of 360,000 barrels per day.

Describing the Dangote refinery as a ‘game changer,’ Bloomberg emphasized its strategic advantage of leveraging cheaper U.S. oil imports for a substantial portion of its feedstock.

Analysts anticipate that the refinery’s operations will have a transformative impact on Nigeria’s fuel market and the broader region.

The refinery has already commenced shipping products in recent weeks while preparing to ramp up petrol output.

Analysts predict that Dangote’s refinery will influence Atlantic Basin gasoline markets and significantly alter the dynamics of the petroleum trade in West Africa.

Reuters recently reported that the Dangote refinery has the potential to disrupt the decades-long petrol trade from Europe to Africa, worth an estimated $17 billion annually.

With a configured capacity to produce up to 53 million liters of petrol per day, the refinery is poised to meet a significant portion of Nigeria’s fuel demand and reduce the country’s dependence on imported petroleum products.

Aliko Dangote, Africa’s richest man and the visionary behind the refinery, has demonstrated his commitment to revolutionizing Nigeria’s energy landscape. As the Dangote refinery continues to scale up its operations, it is poised to not only bolster Nigeria’s energy security but also emerge as a key player in the global refining industry.

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Crude Oil

Brent Crude Hits $88.42, WTI Climbs to $83.36 on Dollar Index Dip

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Brent crude oil - Investors King

Oil prices surged as Brent crude oil appreciated to $88.42 a barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed to $83.36 a barrel.

The uptick in prices comes as the U.S. dollar index dipped to its lowest level in over a week, prompting investors to shift their focus from geopolitical tensions to global economic conditions.

The weakening of the U.S. dollar, a key factor influencing oil prices, provided a boost to dollar-denominated commodities like oil. As the dollar index fell, demand for oil from investors holding other currencies increased, leading to the rise in prices.

Investors also found support in euro zone data indicating a robust expansion in business activity, with April witnessing the fastest pace of growth in nearly a year.

Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, noted that the market had been under pressure due to sluggish growth in the euro zone, making any signs of improvement supportive for oil prices.

Market participants are increasingly looking beyond geopolitical tensions and focusing on economic indicators and supply-and-demand dynamics.

Despite initial concerns regarding tensions between Israel and Iran and uncertainties surrounding China’s economic performance, the market sentiment remained optimistic, buoyed by expectations of steady oil demand.

Analysts anticipate the release of key economic data later in the week, including U.S. first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) figures and March’s personal consumption expenditures, which serve as the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge.

These data points are expected to provide further insights into the health of the economy and potentially impact oil prices.

Also, anticipation builds around the release of U.S. crude oil inventory data by the Energy Information Administration, scheduled for Wednesday.

Preliminary reports suggest an increase in crude oil inventories alongside a decrease in refined product stockpiles, reflecting ongoing dynamics in the oil market.

As oil prices continue their upward trajectory, investors remain vigilant, monitoring economic indicators and geopolitical developments for further cues on the future direction of the market.

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