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Experts Expect no Changes as CBN’s MPC Meets

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  • Experts Expect no Changes as CBN’s MPC Meets

Industry experts have said the Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank of Nigeria will be expected to leave key rates unchanged at the end of its two-day meeting starting on Monday (today).

The MPC had, at the end of its last meeting in January, retained the Monetary Policy Rate (benchmark interest rate), Cash Reserves Ratio and Liquidity Ratio at 14 per cent, 22.5 per cent and 30 per cent, respectively.

The Chief Executive Officer, Financial Derivatives Company Limited, Bismarck Rewane, said an audacious thing to do would be to reduce the interest rate.

He said, “My projection is that they will do nothing; they will just wait and see. If I was there, I would get the interest rate down by one per cent, bring the CRR down by two per cent and putting more money into the foreign exchange market. That will be a major catalyst for economic activities.

“However, I think the prudent and safe thing that we should expect is that there will be no change for now. Bringing down interest rate has a risk element.”

He said the recent increase in the nation’s oil production and price rally had helped to improve the state of the economy, adding, “Nobody should take credit for what is happening.”

The nation’s foreign exchange reserves, which hit a low of $23.89bn on October 19, 2016, stood at $30.3bn last Thursday, latest data from the CBN showed on Sunday.

The nation’s inflation, which had climbed to 18.72 per cent in January, fell for the first time in 15 months to 17.78 per cent in February.

The Chief Executive Officer, Cowry Asset Management Limited, Mr. Johnson Chukwu, said, “I don’t expect the MPC to adjust the rates because the monetary authority will not want to inject naira liquidity into the economy at this point when they are succeeding in stabilising the naira exchange rate.”

He said a downward adjustment of rates, either the MPR or the CRR, would lead to an injection of naira liquidity into the economy, adding that this would drive up demand for foreign exchange possibly to a level that the central bank would be unable to meet.

“I do not expect the monetary authority to react to the decline in inflation in February at this particular meeting.

“That, we expect, will happen probably at the May meeting when inflation would have gone down further and at that point, the naira exchange rate would have been better stabilised.”

Meanwhile, economic management leaders from the CBN and the ministries of finance, budget and national planning as well as industry, trade and investment met in Abuja over the weekend to harmonise their policy perspectives.

Speaking at the opening of the two-day MPC retreat, the CBN Governor, Dr. Godwin Emefiele, stressed the need for the country’s monetary and fiscal authorities to collaborate and harmonise standpoints so as to develop the economy rapidly.

He said the retreat came at a period when the country faced serious economic challenges, adding that finding a sustainable solution required a broadened participation of colleagues from the fiscal side.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Economy

Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

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Gas-Pipeline

The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

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IMF Report: Nigeria’s Inflation to Dip to 26.3% in 2024, Growth Expected at 3.3%

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IMF global - Investors King

Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2024 appears cautiously optimistic with projections indicating a potential decrease in the country’s inflation rate alongside moderate economic growth.

The IMF’s revised Global Economic Outlook for 2024 highlights key forecasts for Nigeria’s economic landscape and gave insights into both inflationary trends and GDP expansion.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 26.3% by the end of 2024.

This projection aligns with expectations of a gradual easing of inflationary pressures within the country, although challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate fluctuations continue to pose significant hurdles to price stability.

In tandem with the inflation forecast, the IMF also predicts a modest economic growth rate of 3.3% for Nigeria in 2024.

This growth projection reflects a cautious optimism regarding the country’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of various internal and external challenges.

Despite the ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and address macroeconomic imbalances, the IMF underscores the need for continued policy reforms and prudent fiscal management to sustain growth momentum.

The IMF report provides valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic trajectory, offering policymakers, investors, and stakeholders a comprehensive understanding of the country’s macroeconomic dynamics.

While the projected decline in inflation and modest growth outlook offer reasons for cautious optimism, it remains essential for Nigerian authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing underlying structural vulnerabilities and promoting inclusive economic development.

As the country navigates through a challenging economic landscape, concerted efforts towards policy coordination, investment promotion, and structural reforms will be crucial in unlocking Nigeria’s full growth potential and fostering long-term prosperity.

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South Africa’s March Inflation Hits Two-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

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South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s inflation rate declined to a two-month low, according to data released by Statistics South Africa.

Consumer prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in February. While this decline may initially suggest a positive trend, analysts caution against premature optimism due to various economic factors at play.

The weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, coupled with drought conditions affecting staple crops like white corn and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices, poses significant challenges.

These factors are expected to keep inflation relatively high and stubborn in the coming months, making policymakers hesitant to adjust borrowing costs.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, reiterated the bank’s cautious stance on inflation pressures.

Despite the recent easing, inflation has consistently remained above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3-6% since May 2021. Consequently, the bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 8.25% for nearly a year, aiming to anchor inflation expectations.

While some traders speculate on potential interest rate hikes, forward-rate agreements indicate a low likelihood of such a move at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

The yield on 10-year bonds also saw a marginal decline following the release of the inflation data.

March’s inflation decline was mainly attributed to lower prices in miscellaneous goods and services, education, health, and housing and utilities.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained relatively steady at 4.9%.

Overall, South Africa’s inflation trajectory underscores the delicate balance between economic recovery and inflation containment amid ongoing global uncertainties.

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