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Nigeria’s Declining Revenue Coming to an End — NEITI

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Internal revenue
  • Nigeria’s Declining Revenue Coming to an End — NEITI

The decline in revenue accruing to the federation observed since 2014 may be gradually coming to an end judging by the improvement in the recent disbursements to the three tiers of government, the Nigeria Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative has said.

According to NEITI, an increase of 8.8 per cent in the total Federation Account Allocation Committee disbursements made in the fourth quarter of last year indicated that the country’s revenue had started rising and may continue to do so, in contrast to what was recorded in 2014 and 2015.

The agency disclosed this in its latest quarterly report on the review and projections of the FAAC disbursements in 2016.

It said, “Previous issues of the NEITI quarterly review showed that disbursements in the first three quarters of 2016 were below the figures for the first three quarters of 2015. However, this trend was bucked in the fourth quarter of 2016, when disbursements climbed to N1.343tn, a nine per cent increase on the corresponding quarter of 2015.

“This slight improvement in disbursements in the fourth quarter of 2016 could be an indication that the decline in revenue accruing to the federation which has been observed since 2014 might be coming to an end.”

Explaining the trend in disbursements during the review periods, the agency said, “Total disbursements fell by 14.8 per cent from N6.011tn for 2015 to N5.121tn for 2016. There was a steady closing of the gap between total disbursements from the first quarter to the fourth quarter. In the first quarter of 2016, total disbursements were N1.132tn as against N1.648tn in the first quarter of 2015, a decline of 31.2per cent in the first quarter of 2016.

“Total disbursements fell by 26.9 per cent from N1.241tn in the second quarter 2015 to N906bn in the second quarter 2016. There was a further decline in the third quarter when total disbursements dropped by 7.8 per cent from N1.887tn in 2015 to N1.738tn 2016. However, total disbursements increased in the fourth quarter by 8.8 per cent from N1.233tn in 2015 to N1.343tn in 2016.”

It stated that although it was generally lower in 2016 than in 2015, the disbursements from FAAC to all tiers of government picked up in the second half of 2016.

This, it said, was largely due to the combined effects of rebound in oil prices and reduction in militant attacks on oil installations since the middle of 2016.

These two factors, according to NEITI, contributed to increased government take from the oil sector and this in turn translated into higher disbursements to all tiers of government.

In January this year, the Minister of Power, Works and Housing, Mr. Babatunde Fashola, confirmed that the decline in vandalism had prompted a rise in electricity generation as gas supply to power plants had increased and urged vandals to maintain peace in order to sustain the growth.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Economy

Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

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Gas-Pipeline

The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

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Economy

IMF Report: Nigeria’s Inflation to Dip to 26.3% in 2024, Growth Expected at 3.3%

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IMF global - Investors King

Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2024 appears cautiously optimistic with projections indicating a potential decrease in the country’s inflation rate alongside moderate economic growth.

The IMF’s revised Global Economic Outlook for 2024 highlights key forecasts for Nigeria’s economic landscape and gave insights into both inflationary trends and GDP expansion.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 26.3% by the end of 2024.

This projection aligns with expectations of a gradual easing of inflationary pressures within the country, although challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate fluctuations continue to pose significant hurdles to price stability.

In tandem with the inflation forecast, the IMF also predicts a modest economic growth rate of 3.3% for Nigeria in 2024.

This growth projection reflects a cautious optimism regarding the country’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of various internal and external challenges.

Despite the ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and address macroeconomic imbalances, the IMF underscores the need for continued policy reforms and prudent fiscal management to sustain growth momentum.

The IMF report provides valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic trajectory, offering policymakers, investors, and stakeholders a comprehensive understanding of the country’s macroeconomic dynamics.

While the projected decline in inflation and modest growth outlook offer reasons for cautious optimism, it remains essential for Nigerian authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing underlying structural vulnerabilities and promoting inclusive economic development.

As the country navigates through a challenging economic landscape, concerted efforts towards policy coordination, investment promotion, and structural reforms will be crucial in unlocking Nigeria’s full growth potential and fostering long-term prosperity.

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Economy

South Africa’s March Inflation Hits Two-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

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South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s inflation rate declined to a two-month low, according to data released by Statistics South Africa.

Consumer prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in February. While this decline may initially suggest a positive trend, analysts caution against premature optimism due to various economic factors at play.

The weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, coupled with drought conditions affecting staple crops like white corn and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices, poses significant challenges.

These factors are expected to keep inflation relatively high and stubborn in the coming months, making policymakers hesitant to adjust borrowing costs.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, reiterated the bank’s cautious stance on inflation pressures.

Despite the recent easing, inflation has consistently remained above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3-6% since May 2021. Consequently, the bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 8.25% for nearly a year, aiming to anchor inflation expectations.

While some traders speculate on potential interest rate hikes, forward-rate agreements indicate a low likelihood of such a move at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

The yield on 10-year bonds also saw a marginal decline following the release of the inflation data.

March’s inflation decline was mainly attributed to lower prices in miscellaneous goods and services, education, health, and housing and utilities.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained relatively steady at 4.9%.

Overall, South Africa’s inflation trajectory underscores the delicate balance between economic recovery and inflation containment amid ongoing global uncertainties.

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