Forex

Forex Weekly Outlook March 20-24

Published

7 years ago

March 19, 2017

Forex Weekly Outlook March 20-24

The US dollar declined against most currencies last week following the Federal Reserve decision to raise rates by 25 basis points for the first time this year and third time in the last 10 years.

The greenback uncertainty was further compounded by Trump’s proposed budget released on Thursday, which proposed $54 billion increase in defense spending and equal amount of spending cuts from the smallest part of the Federal budget.

While, Trump won’t be adding to the next year’s projected $487 billion deficit. He won’t be reducing it either.

According to experts, Trump’s proposed budget would worsen things for lower-income Americans and hurt the very people that voted en masse for him.

“This isn’t a budget that will make America great again. It’s a budget that will increase hardship and poverty,” said Robert Greenstein, president of the liberal Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.

However, the complete budget would be presented in May for better analysis. This month, as the world looks to the U.K. to trigger article 50 amid France populist uprising. Both the Euro single currency and pound sterling are expected to dip as investors look to manage risk exposure and avert erosion of profits.

This week, CADJPY and GBPJPY top my list.

CADJPY

This pair has lost about 200 pips in the last one month, and last week closed below 20-day moving average for the first time since October 2016. However, apart from the surge in global oil prices that has aided Canadian dollar, the United States’ broad proposed increase in productivity and the seemingly friendly relationship between the two nations since Donald Trump won the election has bolstered the loonie attractiveness as shown in the chart below.

Accordingly, perceived setback to the U.S economy impacts the Canadian dollar outlook, so is the change in commodity prices. While the Japanese Yen on the other hand, gained increased order flow due to the US uncertainty. Therefore, I am bearish on this pair this week as long as 85.61 resistance levels that double as 20-day moving average holds. Also, I expect a sustained break of 83.11 that double as target 1 to open up 80.27 support, target 2.

GBPJPY

The consumer spending that has been supporting the U.K economy has started slowing and so is the retail sales. However, the uncertainty surrounding article 50 of the treaty of Lisbon top global headlines and projected to hurt the U.K long term investment and business outlook.

Similarly, the surge in consumer prices and declining profits of businesses would likely hurt new job creation in the region and further affect the pound sterling attractiveness in the foreign exchange market.

Again, this particular pair has been on the decline since January 29 after the weekly bearish engulfing pattern was formed, and has since lost 528 pips. Hence, this week I am bearish on this pair as long as 142.42 resistance holds with 139.90 as my first target. A sustained break should open up 129.85 in days to come.

Last Week Recap

NZDCAD

This pair has explained last week lost about 608 pips since November but rebounded after global oil prices plunged to over 3-month low last week. While I doubt the downside movement is over considering New Zealand economic outlook, I am equally wary of OPEC and Shale differences. Therefore, I will step aside to monitor price action and see if 0.9382 resistance level would be breached. But as long as 0.9505 resistance holds, I am bearish on this pair and will look to sell at first signal of bearish continuity.

NZDJPY

NZDJPY continued its downward trend and hit our first target last week.

This week, I remain bearish on this pair and will look to add to my position below 78.83 support for one main reason, the Japanese Yen attractiveness increased after the U.S dollar plunged last week, and projected to continue as investors and businesses struggle to decipher proposed 2018 budget amid other uncertainties and how these could impact current economic outlook.

EURNZD

The Euro-single currency plunged last week against most currencies except the US dollar and Canadian dollar. This week I will be standing aside to monitor EURNZD price action and Euro-area unfolding political conundrum ahead of France election and Brexit.

Even though, I am still bullish bias as long as 1.5038 holds. I will need a sustained break of 1.5469 to confirm bullish continuation.

EURJPY

EURJPY failed to hit our first target after gaining about 80 pips two weeks ago and plunged last week to close below 121.10 support levels. Also, last week’s candlestick closed as a dark cloud pattern but above 20-day moving average.

This week, I will be stepping aside for further clarification.

Up Next

Naira to Appreciate Further as CBN Boosts Forex Sale

Don't Miss

Naira Extends Gain on Parallel Market, Now $449/$1

Samed Olukoya

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

Comments

Naira

Black Market Dollar to Naira Exchange Rate Today 17th May 2024

The black market, also known as the parallel market or Aboki fx, US dollar to Nigerian Naira exchange rate as of May 17th, 2024 stood at 1 USD to ₦1,540.

Published

3 mins ago

May 17, 2024

Samed Olukoya

The black market, also known as the parallel market or Aboki fx, US dollar to Nigerian Naira exchange rate as of May 17th, 2024 stood at 1 USD to ₦1,540.

Recent data from Bureau De Change (BDC) reveals that buyers in the Lagos Parallel Market purchased a dollar for ₦1,560 and sold it at ₦1,550 on Thursday, May 16th, 2024.

This indicates a slight improvement in the Naira exchange rate when compared to today’s rate.

The black market rate plays a crucial role for investors and participants, offering a real-time reflection of currency dynamics outside official or regulated exchange channels.

Monitoring these rates provides insights into the immediate value of the Naira against the dollar, guiding decision-making processes for individuals and businesses alike.

It’s important to note that while the black market offers valuable insights, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not officially recognize its existence.

The CBN advises individuals engaging in forex transactions to utilize official banking channels, emphasizing the importance of compliance with regulatory frameworks.

How much is dollar to naira today in the black market

For those navigating the currency exchange landscape, here are the latest figures for the black market exchange rate:

Buying Rate: ₦1,540
Selling Rate: ₦1,530

As economic conditions continue to evolve, staying informed about currency exchange rates empowers individuals to make informed financial decisions. While the black market provides immediate insights, adherence to regulatory guidelines ensures stability and transparency in forex transactions.

Forex

SEC and ABCON Explore Collaboration for ‘Kolectyomoni’ Digital Currency Platform

Published

57 mins ago

May 17, 2024

Samed Olukoya

The Association of Bureaux De Change Operators of Nigeria (ABCON) has initiated talks with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to explore collaboration on its upcoming digital currency market platform, ‘Kolectyomoni’.

This move was underscored during an official visit by ABCON representatives to the newly appointed Director General of the SEC, Dr. Timi Agama. Aminu Gwadabe, President of ABCON, conveyed the association’s eagerness to engage with SEC to ensure the smooth operation of its digital currency platform.

Gwadabe emphasized that ABCON recognizes the regulatory oversight of SEC in the financial sector and seeks its guidance to navigate the complexities of the digital currency market.

He pointed out that while digital currencies hold immense potential for financial inclusion and innovation, they also present regulatory challenges that require collaborative efforts between industry stakeholders and regulatory bodies.

Highlighting the significance of embracing digital currencies, Gwadabe noted, “The future of BDC’s business is digital currency.”

He stressed the growing adoption of digital currencies among Nigerians, citing statistics that reveal a rising number of participants in the digital currency ecosystem, with a substantial market size of $9 billion annually.

In response, Dr. Timi Agama expressed SEC’s openness to support and facilitate the growth of the digital currency sector in Nigeria.

He acknowledged ABCON’s initiative in launching the ‘Kolectyomoni’ platform and assured of SEC’s cooperation in providing regulatory guidance and oversight.

Agama reaffirmed SEC’s commitment to fostering innovation in the financial sector while ensuring investor protection and market integrity.

He underscored the importance of collaboration between regulators and industry players to develop robust frameworks that foster innovation and safeguard against potential risks.

Furthermore, Agama encouraged ABCON to finalize the development of the ‘Kolectyomoni’ digital currency platform and submit it to the SEC for thorough review and assessment by the technical team.

He emphasized the need for timely regulatory oversight to address emerging trends in the digital currency market and maintain regulatory compliance.

Naira

Black Market Dollar to Naira Exchange Rate Today 16th May 2024

The black market, also known as the parallel market or Aboki fx, US dollar to Nigerian Naira exchange rate as of May 16th, 2024 stood at 1 USD to ₦1,560.

Published

1 day ago

May 16, 2024

Samed Olukoya

The black market, also known as the parallel market or Aboki fx, US dollar to Nigerian Naira exchange rate as of May 16th, 2024 stood at 1 USD to ₦1,560.

Recent data from Bureau De Change (BDC) reveals that buyers in the Lagos Parallel Market purchased a dollar for ₦1,530 and sold it at ₦1,520 on Wednesday, May 15th, 2024.

This indicates a decline in the Naira exchange rate compared to the current rate.

The black market rate plays a crucial role for investors and participants, offering a real-time reflection of currency dynamics outside official or regulated exchange channels.

Monitoring these rates provides insights into the immediate value of the Naira against the dollar, guiding decision-making processes for individuals and businesses alike.

It’s important to note that while the black market offers valuable insights, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not officially recognize its existence.

The CBN advises individuals engaging in forex transactions to utilize official banking channels, emphasizing the importance of compliance with regulatory frameworks.