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Falling Oil Prices Threaten Nigeria’s Earnings, Reserves Accretion

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  • Falling Oil Prices Threaten Nigeria’s Earnings, Reserves Accretion

The steady rise of Nigeria’s foreign exchange earnings and build-up of external reserves, which started about five months ago, is already under threat from exogenous shock arising from the recent fall in oil prices.

Nigeria depends on oil sales for 90 per cent of its foreign exchange earnings and 70 per cent of total revenue.

However, rising shale oil production in the United States in recent months has dampened production cuts carried out by members of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Russia to shore up prices.

According to Reuters, oil prices slid 2 per cent on Thursday, extending the previous session’s dive that brought prices to the lowest levels this year, as record U.S. crude inventories fed doubts about whether OPEC-led supply cuts would reduce a global glut.

U.S. crude prices fell through the $50 a barrel support level, with market participants unwinding a massive number of bullish wagers they had amassed after a deal by top global oil producers to limit output.

On Wednesday, crude also tumbled more than 5 per cent, its steepest dive in a year, after data showed crude oil stocks in the U.S., the world’s top oil consumer, swelled by 8.2 million barrels last week to a record 528.4 million barrels, well above forecasts of a 2 million barrel build.

Although the impact of sliding oil prices are yet to be felt in Nigeria, market analysts have cautioned that the external shocks would eventually hit the country’s foreign earnings and reserves.

Last Thursday, Nigeria’s external reserves rose to $30.039 billion, according to the latest data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).

The central bank’s data showed that the reserves, derived primarily from oil sales, recorded a steady increase of between 2.3 and 2.75 per cent since January 2017.

Other than oil prices, a drop in militancy in the Niger Delta has also led to an improvement in the country’s foreign exchange earnings.

However, following the recent changes in the CBN’s foreign exchange (FX) policy and its renewed bid to reduce the gap between the interbank and parallel market rates, there have been increased interventions in the FX market by the central bank.

So far, the CBN has pumped $1.370 billion into the FX market since the measures were announced.

Owing to this, Nigeria’s external reserves, which give the CBN its firepower, have come under close scrutiny.

The naira closed at N463 to the dollar at some parallel market points on Friday.

At $30.039 billion, the country’s reserves have increased by $4.196 billion or 16 per cent, compared with the $25.843 billion at the end of 2016.

But concerns continue to heighten over the central bank’s ability to sustain its intervention in the market with the oil prices recording their biggest fall this year last week.

Speaking in a chat on Sunday, the Director General of the West African Institute of Financial and Economic Management (WAIFEM), Prof. Akpan Ekpo, pointed out that if oil prices continue to slide, it would definitely have a negative effect on the country’s external reserves.

“Let’s just hope that it rises again. That is why we have always said that the price of oil is very volatile. That is why you cannot depend on it for long-term development.

“Certainly, if this continues, it would affect the amount of dollars the CBN can put in the market.

“That is why some people have been asking if what the CBN has been doing in the past three weeks is sustainable.

“Effectively, in the long term, the structure of the Nigerian economy has to change towards earning FX from other sources instead of crude oil. We must also understand that the U.S. has stopped buying our oil because of the shale oil produced in the country,” Ekpo added.

The Financial Derivatives Company Limited stated in a recent note that the ability of the CBN to sustain its fight against currency speculation as well as preserve the value of the naira would depend largely on the country’s crude oil earnings.

Despite mounting concerns, there were indications at the weekend that the CBN would inject more FX into the market early this week.

Information about the central bank’s action became rife over the weekend, sending jitters among currency speculators.

When contacted, the acting Director, Corporate Communications of the CBN, Mr. Isaac Okorafor, confirmed that the central bank was determined to sustain liquidity in the FX market this week in order to enhance accessibility for genuine end-users.

Okorafor also cautioned dealers in FX not to engage in any unwholesome practices detrimental to the smooth operations in the market, warning that the CBN would impose heavy sanctions on any organisation or official involved in such acts.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Dangote Refinery Leverages Cheaper US Oil Imports to Boost Production

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The Dangote Petroleum Refinery is capitalizing on the availability of cheaper oil imports from the United States.

Recent reports indicate that the refinery with a capacity of 650,000 barrels per day has begun leveraging US-grade oil to power its operations in Nigeria.

According to insights from industry analysts, the refinery has commenced shipping various products, including jet fuel, gasoil, and naphtha, as it gradually ramps up its production capacity.

The utilization of US oil imports, particularly the WTI Midland grade, has provided Dangote Refinery with a cost-effective solution for its feedstock requirements.

Experts anticipate that the refinery’s gasoline-focused units, expected to come online in the summer months will further bolster its influence in the Atlantic Basin gasoline markets.

Alan Gelder, Vice President of Refining, Chemicals, and Oil Markets at Wood Mackenzie, noted that Dangote’s entry into the gasoline market is poised to reshape the West African gasoline supply dynamics.

Despite operating at approximately half its nameplate capacity, Dangote Refinery’s impact on regional fuel markets is already being felt. The refinery’s recent announcement of a reduction in diesel prices from N1,200/litre to N1,000/litre has generated excitement within Nigeria’s downstream oil sector.

This move is expected to positively affect various sectors of the economy and contribute to reducing the country’s high inflation rate.

Furthermore, the refinery’s utilization of US oil imports shows its commitment to exploring cost-effective solutions while striving to meet Nigeria’s domestic fuel demand. As the refinery continues to optimize its production processes, it is poised to play a pivotal role in Nigeria’s energy landscape and contribute to the country’s quest for self-sufficiency in refined petroleum products.

Moreover, the Nigerian government’s recent directive to compel oil producers to prioritize domestic refineries for crude supply aligns with Dangote Refinery’s objectives of reducing reliance on imported refined products.

With the flexibility to purchase crude using either the local currency or the US dollar, the refinery is well-positioned to capitalize on these policy reforms and further enhance its operational efficiency.

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Havens Seekers Turn to Bonds Amid Israel-Iran Tensions, Crude Oil Prices Surge

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As geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran escalate, investors are seeking refuge in traditional safe-haven assets, particularly bonds, while crude oil prices surge on fears of supply disruptions.

The latest developments in the Middle East have sparked a rush to secure assets perceived as less risky amidst growing uncertainty.

With crude oil trading just over 1% higher, having given up earlier gains of as much as 4.2%, investors are closely monitoring the situation for any signs of real supply disruptions.

While there is currently no evidence of such disruptions, concerns persist that any escalation in tensions could affect oil flows through critical chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz or lead to renewed attacks on ships in the Red Sea by Iran-backed Houthi rebels.

Edward Bell, head of market economics at Emirates NBD PJSC in Dubai, said it is important to assess whether there have been any tangible impacts on the physical supply or shipment of oil products, indicating that if the answer is negative, the premium may need to be recalibrated.

Meanwhile, Oman’s foreign ministry issued a statement condemning what it termed Israel’s repeated military attacks in the region in response to the blasts in Iran. This is the first reaction from Gulf Arab states to the reported Israeli strike on Iran.

The ministry also called for international efforts to focus on achieving a ceasefire in Gaza, where Israel is engaged in conflict with Iranian-backed Hamas, and to seek a resolution to the Palestinian issue.

Ziad Daoud, Bloomberg Economics’ Chief Emerging Markets Economist, argued that the ball is now in Iran’s court, with its next actions likely to determine the broader economic impact of the situation.

In the financial markets, bonds are emerging as the preferred haven for investors seeking safety amid the heightened tensions.

Bunds in Europe, together with Treasuries in the US, are expected to rally, reflecting investor appetite for low-risk assets.

Crude oil prices are also benefitting from the uncertainty, driven primarily by concerns over potential supply disruptions.

As investors navigate the evolving situation, the search for safe-haven assets underscores the cautious sentiment prevailing in global markets.

The geopolitical dynamics in the Middle East continue to shape investor behavior, with a keen focus on developments that could impact global economic stability.

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Oil Prices Decline for Third Consecutive Day on Weaker Economic Data and Inventory Concerns

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Oil prices extended their decline for the third consecutive day on Wednesday as concerns over weaker economic data and increasing commercial inventories in the United States weighed on oil outlook.

Brent oil, against which Nigerian oil is priced, dropped by 51 cents to $89.51 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell by 41 cents to $84.95 a barrel.

The softening of oil prices this week reflects the impact of economic headwinds on global demand, dampening the gains typically seen from geopolitical tensions.

Market observers are closely monitoring how Israel might respond to Iran’s recent attack, though analysts suggest that this event may not significantly affect Iran’s oil exports.

John Evans, an oil broker at PVM, remarked on the situation, noting that oil prices are readjusting after factoring in a “war premium” and facing setbacks in hopes for interest rate cuts.

The anticipation for interest rate cuts received a blow as top U.S. Federal Reserve officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, refrained from providing guidance on the timing of such cuts. This dashed investors’ expectations for significant reductions in borrowing costs this year.

Similarly, Britain’s slower-than-expected inflation rate in March hinted at a delay in the Bank of England’s rate cut, while inflation across the euro zone suggested a potential rate cut by the European Central Bank in June.

Meanwhile, concerns about U.S. crude inventories persist, with a Reuters poll indicating a rise of about 1.4 million barrels last week. Official data from the Energy Information Administration is awaited, scheduled for release on Wednesday.

Adding to the mix, Tengizchevroil announced plans for maintenance at one of six production trains at the Tengiz oilfield in Kazakhstan in May, further influencing market sentiment.

As the oil market navigates through a landscape of economic indicators and geopolitical events, investors remain vigilant for cues that could dictate future price movements.

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