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U.S. Jobs, Wages Show Solid Gains in Trump’s First Full Month

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  • U.S. Jobs, Wages Show Solid Gains in Trump’s First Full Month

U.S. employers added jobs at an above-average pace for a second month on outsized gains in construction and manufacturing, showing the labor market continued its steady growth in the new year.

The 235,000 increase in jobs followed a 238,000 rise in January that was more than previously estimated, the best back-to-back rise since July, a Labor Department report showed Friday in Washington. The unemployment rate fell to 4.7 percent, and wages grew 2.8 percent from February 2016.

While unseasonably warm weather may have boosted the payrolls count, the data represent President Donald Trump’s first full month in office and coincide with a surge in economic optimism following his election victory. The figures also validate recent comments by Federal Reserve officials that flagged a likely interest-rate increase this month.

“The economy is riding a wave of optimism in the wake of the election,” Andrew Chamberlain, chief economist of jobs website Glassdoor, said before the report was released.

Construction jobs, which can fluctuate depending on the weather, rose by 58,000, the most since March 2007, and followed a 40,000 increase in January. Manufacturing payrolls gained 28,000, a three-year high. Meanwhile, retail positions fell by 26,000, the most since December 2012.

Warm Weather

Last month was the second-warmest February on record in the contiguous 48 U.S. states, with an average temperature of 41 degrees Fahrenheit (5 degrees Celsius), about 7 degrees higher than the 20th century average, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Even so, the figures indicate that the drivers of consumer spending probably remain intact after purchases slowed in January, suggesting that any easing of first-quarter economic growth will be temporary. Fed Chair Janet Yellen said last week that the labor market is “in the vicinity of our maximum employment objective.”

At the same time, payroll gains are forecast to slow, owing to factors including employers’ difficulty filling positions and tepid growth in the working-age population. For the full year, economists project an average monthly increase of 171,000 jobs, according to a February survey.

Trump has set a goal of adding 25 million jobs over 10 years, which would require additions of 208,000 a month, or 2.5 million positions a year.

The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for a 200,000 advance in February. Estimates ranged from gains of 150,000 to 275,000. January was initially reported as a 227,000 increase.

Revisions to the previous two months added a total of 9,000 jobs to payrolls.

The unemployment rate, which is derived from a separate Labor Department survey of households, fell as employment increased by 447,000. The jobless rate matched the median projection of 4.7 percent.

Participation Rate

The participation rate, which shows the share of working-age people in the labor force, increased to 63 percent, the highest since last March, from 62.9 percent. It has been hovering close to the lowest level in more than three decades.

The number of people out of the labor force, a figure repeatedly highlighted by Trump as a sign of economic malaise, fell by 176,000 to 94.2 million.

Private employment, which excludes government agencies, rose by 227,000 after a 221,000 increase the prior month.

Government employment rose by 8,000. Federal payrolls increased by 2,000 in the first full month of the Trump administration’s hiring freeze for agency employees not involved in national security. State and local agencies added 6,000.

Average hourly earnings rose by 0.2 percent from the previous month. January’s year-over-year increase was revised up to a 2.8 percent gain. The average work week for all workers was unchanged at 34.4 hours.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Crude Oil

Oil Prices Continue to Slide: Drops Over 1% Amid Surging U.S. Stockpiles

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Amidst growing concerns over surging U.S. stockpiles and indications of static output policies from major oil-producing nations, oil prices declined for a second consecutive day by 1% on Wednesday.

Brent crude oil, against which the Nigerian oil price is measured, shed 97 cents or 1.12% to $85.28 per barrel.

Similarly, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude slumped by 93 cents or a 1.14% fall to close at $80.69.

The recent downtrend in oil prices comes after they reached their highest level since October last week.

However, ongoing concerns regarding burgeoning U.S. crude inventories and uncertainties surrounding potential inaction by the OPEC+ group in their forthcoming technical meeting have exacerbated the downward momentum.

Market analysts attribute the decline to expectations of minimal adjustments to oil output policies by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, known collectively as OPEC+, until a full ministerial meeting scheduled for June.

In addition to concerns about excess supply, the market’s attention is also focused on the impending release of official government data on U.S. crude inventories, scheduled for Wednesday at 10:30 a.m. EDT (1430 GMT).

Analysts are keenly observing OPEC members for any signals of deviation from their production quotas, suggesting further volatility may lie ahead in the oil market.

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Energy

Nigeria Targets $5bn Investments in Oil and Gas Sector, Says Government

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Crude Oil - Investors King

Nigeria is setting its sights on attracting $5 billion worth of investments in its oil and gas sector, according to statements made by government officials during an oil and gas sector retreat in Abuja.

During the retreat organized by the Federal Ministry of Petroleum Resources, Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Heineken Lokpobiri, explained the importance of ramping up crude oil production and creating an environment conducive to attracting investments.

He highlighted the need to work closely with agencies like the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) to achieve these goals.

Lokpobiri acknowledged the challenges posed by issues such as insecurity and pipeline vandalism but expressed confidence in the government’s ability to tackle them effectively.

He stressed the necessity of a globally competitive regulatory framework to encourage investment in the sector.

The minister’s remarks were echoed by Mele Kyari, the Group Chief Executive Officer of NNPCL, who spoke at the 2024 Strategic Women in Energy, Oil, and Gas Leadership Summit.

Kyari stressed the critical role of energy in driving economic growth and development and explained that Nigeria still faces challenges in providing stable electricity to its citizens.

Kyari outlined NNPCL’s vision for the future, which includes increasing crude oil production, expanding refining capacity, and growing the company’s retail network.

He highlighted the importance of leveraging Nigeria’s vast gas resources and optimizing dividend payouts to shareholders.

Overall, the government’s commitment to attracting $5 billion in investments reflects its determination to revitalize the oil and gas sector and drive economic growth in Nigeria.

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Commodities

Palm Oil Rebounds on Upbeat Malaysian Exports Amid Indonesian Supply Concerns

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Palm Oil - Investors King

Palm oil prices rebounded from a two-day decline on reports that Malaysian exports will be robust this month despite concerns over potential supply disruptions from Indonesia, the world’s largest palm oil exporter.

The market saw a significant surge as Malaysian export figures for the current month painted a promising picture.

Senior trader David Ng from IcebergX Sdn. in Kuala Lumpur attributed the morning’s gains to Malaysia’s strong export performance, with shipments climbing by a notable 14% during March 1-25 compared to the previous month.

Increased demand from key regions like Africa, India, and the Middle East contributed to this impressive growth, as reported by Intertek Testing Services.

However, amidst this positivity, investors are closely monitoring developments in Indonesia. The Indonesian government’s contemplation of revising its domestic market obligation policy, potentially linking it to production rather than exports, has stirred market concerns.

Edy Priyono, a deputy at the presidential staff office in Jakarta, indicated that this proposed shift aims to mitigate vulnerability to fluctuations in export demand.

Yet, it could potentially constrain supply availability from Indonesia in the future to stabilize domestic prices.

This uncertainty surrounding Indonesian policies has added a layer of complexity to palm oil market dynamics, prompting investors to react cautiously despite Malaysia’s promising export performance.

The prospect of Indonesian supply disruptions underscores the delicacy of global palm oil supply chains and their susceptibility to geopolitical and regulatory factors.

As the market navigates these developments, stakeholders remain attentive to both export data from Malaysia and policy shifts in Indonesia, recognizing their significant impact on palm oil prices and market stability.

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