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IMO’s Regulation to Cost Shippers Extra $60bn in Bunker Fuel Yearly

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International Maritime Organisation
  • IMO’s Regulation to Cost Shippers Extra $60bn in Bunker Fuel Yearly

The global bunker fuel costs could rise to $60 billion yearly from 2020, in a full compliance scenario, when the International Maritime Organisation’s (IMO) 0.5 weight- percent sulphur cap for bunker fuels kicks in, a new study by Wood Mackenzie has revealed.

In the global petroleum/marine industry, oil bunkering is a legitimate business that involves the process of supplying a ship with fuel.

Fuel oil, which is high in sulphur content, has traditionally been used by the shipping industry as bunker fuel.

In 2016, global demand for high-sulphur fuel oil stood at almost 70 per cent of overall bunker fuels.

With the implementation of the IMO regulation in 2020, Wood Mackenzie argued that the shipping industry will have to consider a switch to alternative fuels, such as marine gas oil (MGO), or install scrubbers – a system that removes sulphur from exhaust gas emitted by bunkers.

According to a new study by Wood Mackenzie, a combination of higher crude prices and tight availability of MGO could take the price of MGO up to almost four times that of fuel oil in 2016, and eventually cost the entire industry additional $60 billion annually.

Research Director for Asia Refining at Wood Mackenzie, Sushant Gupta, noted that installing scrubbers may be an economically attractive option.

“Although there is an initial investment, shippers can expect a high rate of return of between 20 per cent and 50 per cent depending on investment cost, MGO-fuel oil spread and ships’ fuel consumption. Despite attractive returns, penetration rate for scrubbers could be limited by access to finance, scrubber manufacturing capacity, dry-dock space and technological uncertainties. The shipping industry is traditionally slow to move, but in this case, early adopters may hugely benefit,” Gupta explained.

“Switching to MGO is a more costly solution. In full compliance, we expect shippers to try to pass the cost to consumers and freight rates from the Middle East to Singapore could increase by up to $1 per barrel,” Gupta added.

The situation for refiners, on the other hand, is more complicated. The impact on margins will vary by refiners depending on the configuration, access to advantaged feedstock, location and type of products produced.

Some refiners should see better profit margins as a result of higher MGO price that is required to satisfy the incremental demand for MGO. Chinese (Sinopec and Petrochina) and Indian (Reliance and Essar) refiners stand to gain as they are deep conversion refiners with the capability to produce more MGO.

Simple refiners with high yields of fuel oil (HSFO) could lose out because of weaker HSFO price and their inability to produce more MGO. These refiners should start thinking about options for placing their fuel oil.

Higher refining runs, required to meet additional MGO demand, could potentially push global gasoline market into surplus weakening gasoline prices. Therefore, the gasoline pain for some refiners could be more acute than the impact of weaker HSFO prices.

Refiners with high gasoline yields need to explore their options to manage gasoline production.

Overall, we expect a material impact on refining economics post IMO and refiners must ensure they have a robust IMO strategy in place.

Wood Mackenzie also predicted a shift in bunkering locations based on compliant fuels availability.

According to the study, Singapore could potentially lose some of its market share for bunker fuels to China as shippers look for alternative locations with a surplus of compliant fuels. China, with ample MGO supply, is well positioned to attract shippers looking for MGO. Singapore will also need to repurpose some storage tanks and other infrastructure to prepare for a shift from fuel oil to gasoil bunkering.

“The options for refiners and shippers will depend on the course of action decided by each of them. At the end of the day, the shipping industry and refineries need to communicate and find middle ground, and time, unfortunately, is running out,” Gupta added.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Crude Oil

NNPC and Newcross Set to Boost Awoba Unit Field Production to 12,000 bpd

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NNPC - Investors King

NNPC and Newcross Exploration and Production Ltd are working together to increase production at the Awoba Unit Field to 12,000 barrels per day (bpd) within the next 30 days.

This initiative, aimed at optimizing hydrocarbon asset production, follows the recent restart of operations at the Awoba field, which commenced this month after a hiatus.

The field, located in the mangrove swamp south of Port Harcourt, Rivers State, ceased production in 2021 due to logistical challenges and crude oil theft.

The joint venture between NNPC and Newcross is poised to bolster national revenue and meet OPEC production quotas, contributing significantly to Nigeria’s energy sector.

Mele Kyari, NNPC’s Group Chief Executive Officer, attributes this achievement to a conducive operating environment fostered by the administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

The endeavor underscores a collective effort involving stakeholders from various sectors, including staff, operators, host communities, and security agencies, aimed at revitalizing Nigeria’s oil and gas sector.

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Gold

Gold Prices Slide Below $2,300 as Investors Digest Fed’s Rate Outlook

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gold bars - Investors King

Amidst a backdrop of global economic shifts and geopolitical recalibration, gold prices dipped below the $2,300 price level.

The decline comes as investors carefully analyse signals from the Federal Reserve regarding its future interest rate policies.

After reaching record highs earlier this month, gold suffered its most daily decline in nearly two years, shedding 2.7% on Monday.

The recent retreat reflects a multifaceted landscape where concerns over escalating tensions in the Middle East have eased, coupled with indications that the Federal Reserve may maintain higher interest rates for a prolonged period.

Richard Grace, a senior currency analyst and international economist at ITC Markets, noted that tactical short-selling likely contributed to the decline, especially given the rapid surge in gold prices witnessed recently.

Despite this setback, bullion remains up approximately 15% since mid-February, supported by ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, central bank purchases, and robust demand from Chinese consumers.

The shift in focus among investors now turns toward forthcoming US economic data, including key inflation metrics favored by the Federal Reserve.

These data points are anticipated to provide further insights into the central bank’s monetary policy trajectory.

Over recent weeks, policymakers have adopted a more hawkish tone in response to consistently strong inflation reports, leading market participants to adjust their expectations regarding the timing of future interest rate adjustments.

As markets recalibrate their expectations for monetary policy, the prospect of a higher-for-longer interest rate environment poses challenges for gold, which traditionally does not offer interest-bearing returns.

Spot gold prices dropped by 1.2% to $2,298.67 an ounce, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index remaining relatively stable. Silver, palladium, and platinum also experienced declines following gold’s retreat.

The ongoing interplay between economic indicators, geopolitical developments, and central bank policies continues to shape the trajectory of precious metal markets.

While gold faces near-term headwinds, its status as a safe-haven asset and store of value ensures that it remains a focal point for investors navigating uncertain global dynamics.

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Crude Oil

Oil Prices Hold Firm Despite Middle East Tensions

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Despite ongoing tensions in the Middle East, oil prices remained resilient, holding steady above key levels on Tuesday.

Brent crude oil traded above $87 a barrel after a slight dip of 0.3% on the previous trading day, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) hovered around $82 a barrel.

The stability in oil prices comes amidst a backdrop of positive sentiment across global markets, with signs of strength in various sectors countering concerns about geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

One of the factors supporting oil prices is the weakening of the US dollar, which makes commodities priced in the currency more attractive to international investors.

Concurrently, equities experienced gains, contributing to the overall positive market sentiment.

However, geopolitical risks persist as Israel intensifies efforts to eliminate what it claims is the last stronghold of Hamas in Gaza and secure the release of remaining hostages.

These actions are expected to keep tensions elevated in the region, adding uncertainty to oil markets.

Despite the geopolitical tensions, options markets have shown a more optimistic outlook in recent days regarding the potential for a spike in oil prices. This suggests that market participants are cautiously optimistic about the resolution of conflicts in the region.

Despite the lingering risks, oil prices have remained below the $90 per barrel price level, a level that many analysts consider significant, particularly as the summer months approach, typically known as the peak demand season for oil.

While prices have experienced some volatility, they have yet to reach the $90 threshold, prompting expectations of further increases later in the year.

Jeff Currie, chief strategy officer of energy pathways at Carlyle Group, expressed confidence in the potential for oil prices to surpass $100 per barrel, citing tight market conditions indicated by timespreads.

However, he also noted the importance of monitoring OPEC’s response to rising prices, as the organization may adjust production levels to stabilize the market.

Overall, while geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to pose risks to oil markets, the resilience of oil prices amidst these challenges underscores the complex interplay of global factors influencing commodity markets.

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