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CBN New Forex Policy Fails to Excite Foreign Investors

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  • CBN New Forex Policy Fails to Excite Foreign Investors

While the nation’s forex market has seen increased liquidity in recent days on the back of the Central Bank of Nigeria’s new policy action, foreign investors are not keen on bringing back capital into the country.

Industry experts, including the Chief Executive Officer, Financial Derivatives Company Limited, Bismarck Rewane, say the issue of investor confidence remains unaddressed.

The CBN had on February 20 said it would provide direct funding to banks to meet the needs of Nigerians for personal and business travels, medical needs and school fees, effective immediately.

Although the weekly sale of forex to banks has helped to narrow the spread between the official and parallel exchange rates, pressure remains on the naira.

The naira, which posted some gains days after the CBN action, plunged to 475 per dollar at the parallel market on Friday from 450 on Thursday. It hit an all-time low of 520 to the dollar on February 20.

The Global Chief Economist, Renaissance Capital, Charles Robertson, described the increase in liquidity in the forex market as helpful, saying, “Foreign investors want to know they can take profits on their investments when they bring money in.

“But investors are deterred by multiple currency rates; so, the interbank rate too needs to align with the parallel rate, and this has not happened yet,” he said in an emailed response to questions from our correspondent.

The interbank rate stood at N305.25 per dollar as of Friday, according to the CBN.

Robertson said investors might be slow to return, noting that in mid-2016, some foreign investors put money into Nigeria when the currency was floated, but then found out that they were stuck again.

“They will be more wary this time. This new policy has been a positive move, but does not yet compare to the greater reforms in Egypt that have reportedly attracted $13bn back into the Egyptian banking system,” he said.

According to Rewane, the policy framework, the implementation and the process have to be consistent.

“Until you actually free up the market and do all the things that are required, you will have exchange rate movement that is not predictable,” he said.

He also described the CBN action as a move in the right direction “but there is a lot of more work to be done.”

“The parallel market has actually started depreciating again. The more forward transactions they do, the less spot transactions they do, the weaker the naira is going to become. And that is what is happening already,” he explained.

According to Rewane, there is a question of liquidity and a question of confidence, and liquidity does not address the question of confidence.

He said, “You have to win the confidence of investors. Investors’ confidence is not won because you put some liquidity into the market for one week.

“We have more work to do. We need to make the market transparent, allow the oil companies to sell into the market, allow the market move and don’t control the price.”

The President, Association of Bureau De Change of Nigeria, Mr. Aminu Gwadabe, said the fall of the naira to 475 per dollar was largely due to the increasing pressure on the transfer segment of the market.

“Also, the slow take off of banks is an impediment to the exercise. Some banks give a 30-day waiting period to consummate school fees transfer. The market is also witnessing a stronger demand from our neighbouring countries,” he added.

According to Gwadabe, the different applicable exchange rates and volumes by operators for the same product is also enhancing restriction to a single rate in the market.

“If the CBN reviews the distribution channel and ensure that the BDCs serve the critical retail segment of the market and maintain intervention, the strength of the naira will continue in the days ahead,” he said.

The Chief Executive Officer/Partner, National Finance, a US-based firm, Tor Langoy, stressed the need for proactive measures to entice capital into Nigeria.

“There is serious lack of liquidity across sectors. Everybody requires capital. But we can only help a few. Capital is only going to start flowing again when you let go of the interference with the currency,” he explained.

Citing the United Arab Emirates as one the countries that have successfully attracted capital, Langoy said, “By introducing business-friendly policies, the entire world is now aware of the benefits of doing business in Dubai. There is no problem of repatriating your capital, and you don’t have any forex issue; no capital controls.

“These are major things for foreign investors. If a country is not able to fix those basic things, the capital goes somewhere else. The capital moves around the world, and Nigeria is just one out of 193 nations or investment destinations that are competing for the capital.”

He said, why should anyone invest a dollar in Nigeria when they could happily invest in Dubai or in any other nations in Africa without currency issues and fiscal and monetary policies unconducive for investments?

“The global capital markets are just waiting for a free float of the naira. The naira may depreciate. But take the pain and get over it. If it’s 1,000/dollar; it doesn’t matter. Look at what happened to the Egyptian pound. It dropped 50 per cent but now money is coming back into the country. It is just like a few months of pain with decades of happiness,” Langoy stated.

According to JPMorgan Chase & Co, until Nigeria devalues or makes a clear switch to a free-floating currency, the country will struggle to lure back foreign investors.

The Acting Head of Economic Research, Ecobank, Gaimin Nonyane, said the nation’s foreign reserves, which had been rising since November, remained inadequate to meet forex demand.

He said in a note, “The CBN’s ban on importers of 41 specified goods will prevent the naira from effectively clearing in the forex market.

“We believe that the successful Eurobond issuance is a positive development for Nigeria, as the country seeks to source for forex to relieve pressure on the naira.”

The Ecobank analyst said the forex injection should help to boost Nigeria’s forex reserves, and potentially allow the CBN to loosen its hold on the naira.

He added, “However, the amount raised will not meet Nigeria’s estimated $5bn forex gap; this suggests that the operating environment will remain painful in the short term.

“As such, the naira will remain under pressure, exerting pressure on the CBN to devalue the currency further. We expect an official interbank market rate of close to N360-N380 to a dollar in the coming months.”

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Finance

Presidential Committee to Exempt 95% of Informal Sector from Taxes

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The Presidential Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms Committee (PFPTRC) has unveiled plans to exempt a significant portion of the informal sector from taxation.

Chaired by Taiwo Oyedele, the committee aims to alleviate the burden of multiple taxation on small businesses and low-income individuals while fostering economic growth.

The announcement came following the close-out retreat of the PFPTRC in Abuja, where Oyedele addressed reporters over the weekend.

He said the committee is committed to easing the tax burden, particularly for those operating within the informal sector that constitutes a substantial portion of Nigeria’s economy.

Under the proposed reforms, approximately 95% of the informal sector would be granted tax exemptions, sparing them from obligations such as income tax and value-added tax (VAT).

Oyedele stressed the importance of supporting individuals in the informal sector and recognizing their efforts to earn a legitimate living and their contribution to economic development.

The decision was informed by extensive deliberations and data analysis with the committee advocating for a fairer and more equitable tax system.

Oyedele highlighted that individuals earning up to N25 million annually would be exempted from various taxes, aligning with the committee’s commitment to relieving financial pressure on small businesses and low-income earners.

Moreover, the committee emphasized the need for tax reforms to address the prevailing issue of multiple taxation, which disproportionately affects small businesses and the vulnerable population.

By exempting the majority of the informal sector from taxation, the committee aims to stimulate economic growth and promote entrepreneurship.

The proposal for tax reforms is expected to be submitted to the National Assembly by the third quarter of this year, following consultations with the private sector and internal approvals.

The reforms encompass a broad range of measures, including executive orders, regulations, and constitutional amendments, aimed at creating a more conducive environment for business and investment.

In addition to tax exemptions, the committee plans to introduce executive orders and regulations to streamline tax processes and enhance compliance. This includes a new withholding tax regulation exempting small businesses from certain tax obligations, pending ministerial approval.

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Banking Sector

CBN Governor Vows to Tackle High Inflation, Signals Prolonged High Interest Rates

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The Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Dr. Olayemi Cardoso, has pledged to employ decisive measures, including maintaining high interest rates for as long as necessary.

This announcement comes amidst growing concerns over the country’s soaring inflation rates, which have posed significant economic challenges in recent times.

Speaking in an interview with the Financial Times, Cardoso emphasized the unwavering commitment of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to take whatever steps are essential to rein in inflation.

He underscored the urgency of the situation, stating that there is “every indication” that the MPC is prepared to implement stringent measures to curb the upward trajectory of inflation.

“They will continue to do what has to be done to ensure that inflation comes down,” Cardoso affirmed, highlighting the determination of the CBN to confront the inflationary pressures gripping the economy.

The CBN’s proactive stance on inflation was evident from the outset of the year, with the MPC taking bold steps to tighten monetary policy.

The committee notably raised the benchmark lending rate by 400 basis points during its February meeting, further increasing it to 24.75% in March.

Looking ahead, the next MPC meeting, scheduled for May 20-21, will likely serve as a platform for further deliberations on monetary policy adjustments in response to evolving economic conditions.

Financial analysts have projected continued tightening measures by the MPC in light of stubbornly high inflation rates. Meristem Securities, for instance, anticipates a further uptick in headline inflation for April, underscoring the persistent inflationary pressures facing the economy.

Despite the necessity of maintaining high interest rates to address inflationary concerns, Cardoso acknowledged the potential drawbacks of such measures.

He expressed hope that the prolonged high rates would not dampen investment and production activities in the economy, recognizing the need for a delicate balance in monetary policy decisions.

“Hiking interest rates obviously has had a dampening effect on the foreign exchange market, so that has begun to moderate,” Cardoso remarked, highlighting the multifaceted impacts of monetary policy adjustments.

Addressing recent fluctuations in the value of the naira, Cardoso reassured investors of the central bank’s commitment to market stability.

He emphasized the importance of returning to orthodox monetary policies, signaling a departure from previous unconventional approaches to monetary management.

As the CBN governor charts a course towards stabilizing the economy and combating inflation, his steadfast resolve underscores the gravity of the challenges facing Nigeria’s monetary authorities.

In the face of daunting inflationary pressures, the commitment to decisive action offers a glimmer of hope for achieving stability and sustainable economic growth in the country.

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Banking Sector

NDIC Managing Director Reveals: Only 25% of Customers’ Deposits Insured

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The Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of the Nigeria Deposit Insurance Corporation (NDIC), Bello Hassan, has revealed that a mere 25% of customers’ deposits are insured by the corporation.

This revelation has sparked concerns about the vulnerability of depositors’ funds and raised questions about the adequacy of regulatory safeguards in Nigeria’s banking sector.

Speaking on the sidelines of the 2024 Sensitisation Seminar for justices of the court of appeal in Lagos, themed ‘Building Strong Depositors Confidence in Banks and Other Financial Institutions through Adjudication,’ Hassan shed light on the limited coverage of deposit insurance for bank customers.

Hassan addressed recent concerns surrounding the hike in deposit insurance coverage and emphasized the need for periodic reviews to ensure adequacy and credibility.

He explained that the decision to increase deposit insurance limits was based on various factors, including the average deposit size, inflation impact, GDP per capita, and exchange rate fluctuations.

Despite the coverage extending to approximately 98% of depositors, Hassan underscored the critical gap between the number of depositors covered and the value of deposits insured.

He stressed that while nearly all depositors are accounted for, only a quarter of the total value of deposits is protected, leaving a significant portion of funds vulnerable to risk.

“The coverage is just 25% of the total value of the deposits,” Hassan affirmed, highlighting the disparity between the number of depositors covered and the actual value of deposits within the banking system.

Moreover, Hassan addressed concerns about moral hazard, emphasizing that the presence of uninsured deposits would incentivize banks to exercise market discipline and mitigate risks associated with reckless behavior.

“The quantum of deposits not covered will enable banks to exercise market discipline and eliminate the issue of moral hazards,” Hassan stated, suggesting that the lack of full coverage serves as a safeguard against irresponsible banking practices.

However, Hassan’s revelations have prompted calls for greater regulatory oversight and transparency within Nigeria’s financial institutions. Critics argue that the current level of deposit insurance falls short of providing adequate protection for depositors, especially in the event of bank failures or financial crises.

The disclosure comes amid ongoing efforts by regulatory authorities to bolster depositor confidence and strengthen the resilience of the banking sector. With concerns mounting over the stability of Nigeria’s financial system, stakeholders are urging for proactive measures to address vulnerabilities and enhance consumer protection.

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