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Forex Weekly Outlook March 6 – 10

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Forex Weekly Outlook March 6 - 10

The US dollar weakened against major currencies on Friday after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said tightening policy would likely be appropriate this month as long as the economy continues to improve as expected. This assertion further buttressed general consensus that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will hike rates at least three times this year if labor market remains healthy and prices move towards 2 percent target.

However, despite the positive economic data, there were inconsistencies that could impact Fed’s rate decision this month, for instance, the preliminary GDP figure showed the economy was flat in the last quarter of 2016. Growing at 1.9 percent, same as the third quarter but below 2.1 percent expected. Therefore, if average hour earnings and employment numbers due on Friday 10 March failed to ascertain economic improvement as expected, the Fed may be forced to hold off for a while. This is because the Fed is basing its decision on costs (inflation) and employment data.

Otherwise, the FOMC will increase official rates this month and further boost capital market (bonds).

In the Euro-Area, the economic outlook continues to improve following a series of positive economic data released in February — composite purchasing manager index climbed to 56 in February, it highest in almost 6 years. While inflation rate rose to 2 percent target in February for the first time in 4 years. Signalling faster growth in new businesses and an upturn in business sentiment in the region.

This does not imply the European Central Bank will start winding down on stimulus as Mario Draghi insisted that sustainability of the improvement is one of the criteria the institution would consider before such decision. But continuous growth in the region’s manufacturing sector would aid economic expansion, business sentiment and strengthens the Euro-single currency ahead of official Brexit proceedings later this month.

In Japan, the weak yen and surge in global commodity prices are pressuring consumer prices. Boosting inflation rate to almost 2-year high and manufacturing PMI to 53.3 in February, making it the highest reading since March 2014.

Similarly, unemployment rate improved from 3.1 percent to 3 percent in January but shortages of workers may aid wage growth as employers are likely to increase wages to retain desirable employees and attract new ones.

However, the continuous gain of the yen depends largely on Fed rate’s decision and expected to continue if the Fed fails to increase rate this month and vice versa.

Overall, both the US and the Euro-area economies remained strong but US uncertainties cloud its currency direction as investors and businesses are yet to pinpoint tax policy (fiscal stimulus) modus operandi going forward. Accordingly, the Euro-area issues are yet to be resolved – the Greek and Brexit. Therefore, global financial markets might experience a certain level of volatility this month.

This week, EURNZD, NZDJPY and EURJPY top my list.

EURNZD

The Euro-area economy has improved in recent months and expected to continue due to the renewed business confidence in the region and surge in the manufacturing sector.

However, New Zealand dollar remained unattractive after Governor Graeme Wheeler comments on the danger of high foreign exchange on the economic growth.

EURNZDWeekly

Click to enlarge

Last week, the pair gained 418 pips to close below key resistance of 1.5118 but above 20-days moving average for the first time since May 2015. Therefore, this week, I will be looking to buy EURNZD above 1.5118 resistance levels for 1.5469 targets, a sustained break will likely open up 1.5775 targets.

Last Week Recap

NZDJPY

Three weeks ago, I mentioned the potential of this pair, ever since it has lost 229 pips but yet to meet our target at 78.83 price levels. But why I remained bearish on this pair is one, because of the unattractiveness of the New Zealand dollar as explained three weeks ago. Two, last week candlestick closed as a bearish pin bar candlestick –signifying traders bearish bias.

NZDJPYWeekly

Click to enlarge

So this week, I will be looking to add to my sell position below 79.92, 20-days moving average for 78.83 targets.

EURJPY

The Euro single currency rebounded last week and gained across board following renewed interest in the region. Similarly, the surge in the odds of the Fed raising rates in March boosted inflow of cash to the American market and reduced the attractiveness of the Japanese assets, including the yen.

Therefore, the yen plunged against both the Euro single currency and the US dollar but gained against the rest or was flat. So this week, I am bullish on this pair against last week bearish projection.

EURJPYWeekly

Click to enlarge

Hence, I will be looking to buy above 121.10 resistance levels for 123.61 targets and expect a sustained break of 124.18 resistance, above post-Brexit high to reinforce buyers’ interest for 127.26 resistance.

Is the CEO and Founder of Investors King Limited. He is a seasoned foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Business Insider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and other prominent platforms. With over two decades of experience in global financial markets, Olukoya is well-recognized in the industry.

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Naira

Naira Weakens to N1,635/$1 at NAFEM, Sells N1,681/$1 at Black Market

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Naira to Dollar Exchange- Investors King Rate - Investors King

The Naira depreciated against the US Dollar in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) on Monday, October 7 to N1,635.15/$1.

Analysis done by Investors King showed that the local currency lost 0.24 percent or N3.94 at the specialised window, according to data obtained from the FMDQ Securities Exchange.

This is compared to N1,631.21/$1 published in the preceding session on Friday.

This coincided with a drop in the turnover on Monday as secondary data showed an aggregate of $126.24 million on record, compared to the $239.36 million turnover reported on Friday.

This represents a drop of $113.12 million or 47.3 percent.

Last week, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) announced that it sold $543.5 million to authorised dealers and deposit money banks (DMBs) to reduce observed market volatility caused by demand from importers and seasoned demand for FX between September 6 and 30, 2024.

According to a statement issued by Omolara Duke, the Director of Financial Markets Department of the CBN, the transaction was through a two-way quote at the Nigeria Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM) on 11 dealing days.

In a different pattern, the local currency closed flat against the Pound Sterling and appreciated on the Euro at the week’s opening session.

Trading against the British pound, the local currency closed at N2,175.44/£1 while it closed at the rate of N1,788.96 per Euro, a gain of N41.15 from N1,830.11.

The Naira also dropped against the US Dollar at the unofficial black market as it closed at N1,681.67 from N1,676.56 quoted on Friday. This signified a N5.11.

It followed the same pattern against the Pound Sterling and the Euro trading at N2,156.23/£1 and N1,852.75/€1 respectively, losing N2.40 and 60 Kobo from N2,153.83/£1 and N1,852.15/€1.

The local currency also declined by N5.37 on the Canadian Dollar as it fell to N1,207.55/CAD1 from N1,202.18/CAD1

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Forex

BDC Operators Blame Forex Shortage for Continued Naira Depreciation

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Bureau Of Engraving And Printing Prints New Anti-Counterfeit 100 Dollar Bills

Bureau De Change (BDC) operators in Nigeria have said that the value of Naira has continued to depreciate in the parallel market because of the scarcity of forex in the sector as major sources become drastically reduced.

This was disclosed by the Chairman of the Association of Bureau De Change Operators of Nigeria (ABCON), Aminu Gwadabe.

Gwadabe said sources of forex to that segment of the forex market have been severely impacted by the recent policies of the Central Bank of Nigeria.

He averred that members of the Association no longer get as much forex from relevant sources such as exports and external remittances and now rely on irregular intervention from the apex bank.

Blaming the International Money Transfer Operators (IMTOs), Gwadabe said the liberalisation of the market has prevented supply inflow which is being reduced and has made it difficult for BDCs.

According to him, IMT0s have ambushed the international remittance payment as most remittance payment now go their direction.

He added that non-oil exports, which is another source of FX for BDCs have also been reduced and the CBN intervention is not regular.

In the past, he noted that BDCs used to do up to $40k weekly but now, it is not more than $20k.

Gwadabe declared that the Naira will continue to depreciate in the parallel market except there is regular intervention by the CBN.

Describing the BDCs as the language of the invisible players in the retail end of the market, he stated that any sentiment of scarcity by buyers as well as sellers would affect the value of the Naira.

Recall that the Naira fell to N1,700/$ in the parallel market in September, its lowest in seven months but recovered marginally on the 2nd of October. However, the official market section saw a wide depreciation of up to 8%.

The CBN in the past one year has sought to regulate the IMTOs and enable them to play a more prominent role in attracting foreign exchange into official channels from international sources.

In 2023, Nigeria received around $19.5 billion- around 35% of total remittances to Africa according to the World Bank.

However, Taiwo Oyedele, the Chairman of the Presidential Committee on fiscal policy and tax reforms stated that only about 10% of the nearly $20 billion remittance entered the official forex exchange market as the parallel market swallowed up almost 90% of remittance inflows.

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Naira

Naira Strengthens Against Dollar at Official, Black Market in Final Session

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Naira to Dollar Exchange- Investors King Rate - Investors King

The Naira continued to strong-arm the US Dollar as it made a 1.7 percent gain in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) on Friday, October 4 as the local currency gained a value of N28.05 to close the closing session at N1,631.21/$1 at the official window.

According to data obtained from the FMDQ Securities Exchange, compared to N1,659.26/$1 published in the preceding session on Thursday.

Turnover published on the FMDQ Group website stood at $239.36 million indicating that the session’s turnover slid by 46.9 percent, indicating that there was a decrease of $211.03 million compared to $450.39 million published the previous day.

Equally, the domestic currency also witnessed gains against the British currency and the Euro in the week’s final session.

On the Pound Sterling, the local currency made an appreciation of N24.21 to wrap the session at N2,175.44/£1 from N2,199.65/£1 that it sold at the previous session.

Also, against the Euro, the Nigerian currency closed at N1,830.11/€1 versus N1,830.89/€1, indicating a 78 Kobo appreciation.

In the black market, the Naira also gained on the American currency by N5.23 to close at N1,676.56 per Dollar from N1,681.79.

It also made the same movement against the British Pound as it rose by N17.10 to N2,153.83 against N2,170.93 and trading against the Euro, the local currency added N6.93 to N1,852.10 versus N1,859.03.

It equally recorded a positive end result against the Canadian Dollar as it gained N10.52 to end the last session at N1,202.18 from Wednesday’s N1,212.72.

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