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Economists, Manufacturers Criticise Dual Forex Rates

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  • Economists, Manufacturers Criticise Dual Forex Rates

Economists and manufacturers have joined the call for the abolition of the dual exchange rate policy currently being operated in Nigeria.

They say the present arrangement is a breeding ground for corruption and suggest floating of the naira so that everybody can buy the dollar at the same rate.

A professor of Economics at the University of Uyo, Leo Ukpong, advised against the practice of maintaining a dual forex exchange rate.

He said, “Dual exchange rate regime creates room for illegal profit-making by those who have access to buy at the lower (the CBN official rate) and turn around to sell at the high (parallel market) rate.

“This practice ends up increasing the cost of the FX to legitimate businesses that play by the rule; increases the cost of consumer goods to the larger population; causes the FX shortages due to hoarding; and distorts the true value of exchange rate.

“The CBN cannot design or implement any efficient or meaningful foreign exchange policy until we get rid of dual (or multiple) exchange rate regime.”

A Lagos-based leading manufacturer told our correspondent that the dual exchange rate was a very corrupt system that made millionaires out of a few Nigerians and impoverished many.

The manufacturer, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said the dual exchange rate regime was fraught with corruption.

“Since most people want to access forex at the official rate, there is usually a long queue that lasts for months, but you can avoid this by parting with a percentage of the money you want to access,” he said.

An economic strategist with the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria, Mr. Ambrose Oruche, supported the floating of the naira.

He said, “Allow naira to find its level. It will allow for more supply because there will be free entry and exit. More people will come into the market to trade. In the short run, there will be inflation but it will eventually ease off.

“All the efforts geared at protecting the naira can only have a short-term effect, it is not sustainable. The naira will still lose value in the long run while the cost of living for the ordinary man continues to go up.”

A former CBN governor and the Emir of Kano, Alhaji Muhammadu Sanusi, argued that no economy could thrive with dual/multiple forex rates.

A key operator in the manufacturing sector, Chief Eric Umeofia, accused the CBN of exploiting the dual forex regime to allocate forex to those he called cronies of the apex bank’s chiefs and importers of frozen fish while local manufacturers were forced to buy dollars at exorbitant black market rates.

He supported the claim with documents showing forex utilisation from one of the commercial banks.

A recent report by Bloomberg attributed the nation’s current woes to the dual forex regime, noting that it had refused to allow its currency to trade at its market value.

The report titled ‘A tale of two currencies: Egypt sets itself apart from Nigeria’, drew a comparison between Nigeria and Egypt, two countries that were in the same situation in early November, in search of dollars to revive their sinking economies as well as trying to curb rampant currency-trading on the black market.

According to the report, Egypt’s strategy was to ditch a currency peg, leaving its pound open to market forces.

It read in part, “Egypt is still short of dollars, but the situation is changing, and investors are gradually returning.

“Nigeria, in contrast, isn’t letting the naira trade at its market value, insisting that is the only way to protect the poor from a further surge in inflation, which is already at the highest level since 2005. Traders argue that this has left the currency overvalued and say they’ll avoid Nigerian local markets until it weakens.”

It added that Egypt’s strategy had caused the Egyptian pound to gain 16 per cent against the dollar even as the naira fell 40 per cent in value against the greenback.

The National Bureau of Statistics in its January report stated that the inflation rate had gone up to 18.72.

Currently, the prices of consumer goods, according to the Chairman, Ikeja Shop Owners’ Association, Mr. John Okonkwo, increase on a daily basis.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Guinness Nigeria Postpones Spirits Importation Exit, Extends Deal with Diageo

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Guinness Nigeria Plc has announced a delay in its plan to halt the importation of spirits as it extended its agreement with multinational alcoholic beverage company Diageo until 2025.

The decision, communicated through a corporate notice filed with the Nigerian Exchange Limited on Tuesday, cited a longer-than-expected transition period for separating its business from Diageo’s.

Initially slated for discontinuation in April 2024, the importation of premium spirits like Johnnie Walker, Singleton, Baileys, and others under the 2016 sale and distribution agreement with Diageo will now continue for an additional year.

The extension comes as the process of business separation between Guinness Nigeria, a subsidiary of Diageo, and Diageo itself faces unexpected delays.

In October, Guinness Nigeria had announced plans to cease importing spirits from Diageo, a move aimed at reducing its foreign exchange requirements.

However, the separation process has encountered unforeseen hurdles, necessitating the extension of the importation agreement.

The notice, signed by the company’s Legal Director/Company Secretary, Abidemi Ademola, highlighted the ongoing efforts by Guinness Nigeria and Diageo to implement the separation, originally scheduled for completion by April 2024.

The extension underscores the complexity of disentangling the businesses and ensuring a smooth transition.

Guinness Nigeria reaffirmed its commitment to the long-term growth strategy, aligning with Diageo’s decision to establish a new, wholly-owned spirits-focused business.

Despite the delay, both companies remain dedicated to managing the importation and distribution of international premium spirits in West and Central Africa, with Nigeria as a key hub.

The postponement comes amid challenges faced by Guinness Nigeria, including significant exchange rate losses, which amounted to N49 billion in the 2023 half-year operations.

Despite these setbacks, the company remains optimistic about its future prospects in the Nigerian market.

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Private Sector Warns: Interest Rate Hike to Trigger Job Cuts and Inflation Surge

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As the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) announced a hike in the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) from 22.75% to 24.75%, concerns have been raised by the private sector regarding the potential ramifications on job stability and inflationary pressures.

The move, aimed at curbing inflation and stabilizing the exchange rate, has prompted apprehension among business operators who fear adverse effects on the economy.

Representatives from the Nigerian Association of Chambers of Commerce, Industry, Mines and Agriculture (NACCIMA) and the Nigerian Association of Small Scale Industrialists have voiced their worries over the increased difficulty in accessing affordable credit.

They argue that the higher interest rates will impede the private sector’s ability to borrow funds for expansion and operational activities.

This, they fear, could lead to a reduction in business investments and subsequently result in widespread job cuts across various sectors.

The Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) acknowledged the necessity of the interest rate hike but emphasized the potential negative consequences it may bring.

While describing it as a “price businesses would have to pay,” the LCCI highlighted the current fragility of the economy, exacerbated by various policy missteps.

They cautioned that the increased cost of borrowing could stifle entrepreneurial activities and discourage expansion plans critical for economic growth and job creation.

Experts have echoed these concerns, warning that the tightening monetary conditions could exacerbate inflationary pressures and hinder economic recovery efforts.

With inflation already soaring at 31.70%, the rate hike could further fuel price hikes, especially in essential goods and services, thus eroding the purchasing power of consumers.

However, CBN Governor Yemi Cardoso defended the decision, citing the imperative to address current inflationary pressures and ensure sustained exchange rate stability.

He emphasized the need to restore the purchasing power of ordinary Nigerians and expressed confidence that the economy would stabilize by the end of the year.

Despite assurances from the CBN, stakeholders remain cautious, calling for a more nuanced approach that balances the need for price stability with the imperative of fostering economic growth and job creation.

As businesses brace for the impact of the interest rate hike, all eyes are on the evolving economic landscape and the measures taken to mitigate its effects on livelihoods and inflation.

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Breaking Barriers: Transcorp Hotels CEO Shares Journey from Crisis to Success

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Dupe Olusola

Dupe Olusola, the Managing Director/CEO of Transcorp Hotels Plc, reflects on her remarkable journey from navigating the depths of a global pandemic to achieving unprecedented success in the hospitality industry.

Appointed in March 2020, amidst the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, Olusola found herself at the helm of a company grappling with the severe economic fallout and operational challenges inflicted by the crisis.

Faced with a drop in occupancy rates from 70% to a mere 5%, Olusola and her team were confronted with the daunting task of steering Transcorp Hotels through uncharted waters.

Undeterred by the adversity, they embarked on a journey of transformation, leveraging creativity and resilience to navigate the turbulent landscape.

Implementing innovative strategies such as introducing drive-through cinemas, setting up on-site COVID-19 testing facilities, and enhancing take-away services, Transcorp Hotels adapted to meet the evolving needs of its guests and ensure continuity amidst the crisis.

Embracing disruption as a catalyst for growth, Olusola fostered a culture of collaboration and teamwork, rallying her colleagues to overcome obstacles and embrace change.

Through unwavering determination and a commitment to excellence, Transcorp Hotels emerged from the pandemic stronger than ever, breaking profit and revenue records year after year.

“It’s indeed been a great opportunity to learn and relearn, to lead and to grow. When you see success stories, remember it’s a journey with twists, turns, ups and downs but in the end, it will all be okay”, she said.

Olusola’s leadership exemplifies the power of adaptability and perseverance, inspiring her team to transcend limitations and chart a course towards unprecedented success.

As Transcorp Hotels continues to flourish under her stewardship, Olusola remains steadfast in her dedication to driving innovation, fostering growth, and breaking barriers in the hospitality industry.

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