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Banks’ Deposits Rise by N5.33bn in January

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  • Banks’ Deposits Rise by N5.33bn in January

Banks’ deposits rose marginally by N5.33 billion in January thus reversing negative trend recorded in December.

However, the naira depreciated to its lowest level in the parallel market last week with the exchange rate rising to N506 per dollar in the market.

Meanwhile, Nigeria’s Eurobond appreciated last week due to upsurge in demand which halted three weeks of decline.

Deposits rise by N5.3bn:

Banks are mandated to keep 22.5 percent of their total deposit as Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) with the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). Consequently, the apex bank, on a monthly basis, debits banks for 22.5 percent of any increase in bank deposit for the month. However, if banks record decline in deposit, the CBN credits the industry 22.5 percent of that decline in deposit.

Financial investigations reveal that the CBN debited banks N1.2 billion last week for CRR for January, implying that banks’ deposit rose by N5.3 billion.

Parallel market exchange rate:

The increase, however represents 2.5 percent of the N213 billion decline recorded in December.

Naira depreciates to N506/$ in the parallel market:

Despite the steady increase in the nation’s external reserves, which rose further to $28.69 billion last week, the naira depreciated to its lowest level in the parallel market. From N498 per dollar the previous week, the parallel market exchange rate rose to N506 per dollar at the close of business on Friday.

Parallel market sources attributed the depreciation to upsurge in demand amidst constrained dollar supply. Though the CBN sells $8,000 dollars to each BDCs per week, market sources however insist that this is not sufficient to moderate demand pressures in the market.

According to Managing Director/Chief Executive, H.J Trust BDC, Mr. Harisson Owoh, there is need for CBN to increase dollar sale to BDCs so as to accommodate more demands and moderate the pressure in the parallel market.

However, the naira appreciated in the interbank market for spot and forward transactions last week. Data by the Financial Market Dealers Quote (FMDQ) show that the naira appreciated slightly by 0.08 per cent for spot transactions, with the spot exchange rate dropping to N305 per dollar. Also the exchange rates for 1 month, 3 months, 6 months and 12 months contracts fell by 1.51 per cent, 2.2 per cent, 4.2 per cent and 7.67 per cent respectively to N315.34 per dollar, N323.27, N331.53 and N349 per dollar.

CBN, DMO to raise N252.4bn:

Meanwhile, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and the Debt Management Office (DMO) will this week raise N252.44 billion through treasury bills and FGN bonds sales.

Liquidity inflow:

While the CBN is expected to sell 91-days bills worth N32.436 billion, 182-days bills worth N30 billion and 36- days bills worth N80 billion. The TB sale is meant to mop up liquidity inflow from matured TBs of the same value.

The DMO on its part is seeking to raise N110 billion by re-opening the FGN 5-year (2021), 10-year (2024) and 20-year (2036) benchmark bonds.

Consequently, and in the absence of any major liquidity inflow, the interbank money market will this week experience scarcity of funds and increase in cost of funds.

Nigeria’s Eurobonds appreciate as investors renew interest:

Prices of Nigeria’s Eurobond last week rose for the first time following renewed investors interest which triggered upsurge in demand.

According to data by the Debt Management Office (DMO), price of the 5-year, 5.13% July 12, 2018 Eurobond rose by $2.68 (the yield fell to 5.4 per cent), while the 10-year, 6.38 per cent July 12, 2023 bond gained $2.68 (yield fell to 6.21 per cent). But the 10-year, 6.75 percent January 28, 2021 lost $0.03.

The renewed investor’s interest might have been prompted by the roadshow that preceded the $1 billion Eurobond issued by the FG last week. Prior to issuing the 15 year bond, federal government’s officials including Minister of Finance, Mrs. Kemi Adeosun, Senator Udoma Udo Udoma, the Honorable Minister of Budget and National Planning, Godwin Emefiele, Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, Dr. Abraham Nwankwo, the Director-General of the Debt Management Office (DMO) and Mr Ben Akabueze, the Director General of the Budget Office met with foreign investors twice in London and the United States.

These interactions resulted into $7.8 billion subscription to the $1 billion bond, implying 800 per cent oversubscription.

Analysts predict a moderate rise in January inflation:

Economic analysts have predicted moderate rise in January inflation figures, scheduled to be released by the National Bureau of Statistics this week.

Analysts at Afrinvest Plc predicted that inflation will rise to 18.7 percent from 18.55 percent in December while analysts at Financial Derivatives Company (FDC) predicted 18.6 percent January inflation rate.

Percentage decline:

“We forecast Year-on-Year (Y-o-Y) headline inflation rate to inch higher to 18.7 per cent from 18.6 per cent in December 2016 due to a relatively lower base despite projected slower month-on-month (M-o-M) change to 1.0 per cent from 1.1 per cent in December 2016 as the impact of yuletide season on prices wears off.” said Afrinvest analysts.

On their part, FDC analysts said: “The FDC Think Tank estimates a relatively flat movement in the January headline inflation rate to 18.6 per cent from 18.55 per cent in December. Prices have generally either declined or remained flat recently.

The percentage decline in 2017 was pale in comparison to 2016, leading to a marginal surge of 0.05 per cent. The food basket especially has been relatively more inelastic than other commodities.”

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Economy

Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

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The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

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Economy

IMF Report: Nigeria’s Inflation to Dip to 26.3% in 2024, Growth Expected at 3.3%

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IMF global - Investors King

Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2024 appears cautiously optimistic with projections indicating a potential decrease in the country’s inflation rate alongside moderate economic growth.

The IMF’s revised Global Economic Outlook for 2024 highlights key forecasts for Nigeria’s economic landscape and gave insights into both inflationary trends and GDP expansion.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 26.3% by the end of 2024.

This projection aligns with expectations of a gradual easing of inflationary pressures within the country, although challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate fluctuations continue to pose significant hurdles to price stability.

In tandem with the inflation forecast, the IMF also predicts a modest economic growth rate of 3.3% for Nigeria in 2024.

This growth projection reflects a cautious optimism regarding the country’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of various internal and external challenges.

Despite the ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and address macroeconomic imbalances, the IMF underscores the need for continued policy reforms and prudent fiscal management to sustain growth momentum.

The IMF report provides valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic trajectory, offering policymakers, investors, and stakeholders a comprehensive understanding of the country’s macroeconomic dynamics.

While the projected decline in inflation and modest growth outlook offer reasons for cautious optimism, it remains essential for Nigerian authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing underlying structural vulnerabilities and promoting inclusive economic development.

As the country navigates through a challenging economic landscape, concerted efforts towards policy coordination, investment promotion, and structural reforms will be crucial in unlocking Nigeria’s full growth potential and fostering long-term prosperity.

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Economy

South Africa’s March Inflation Hits Two-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

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South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s inflation rate declined to a two-month low, according to data released by Statistics South Africa.

Consumer prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in February. While this decline may initially suggest a positive trend, analysts caution against premature optimism due to various economic factors at play.

The weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, coupled with drought conditions affecting staple crops like white corn and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices, poses significant challenges.

These factors are expected to keep inflation relatively high and stubborn in the coming months, making policymakers hesitant to adjust borrowing costs.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, reiterated the bank’s cautious stance on inflation pressures.

Despite the recent easing, inflation has consistently remained above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3-6% since May 2021. Consequently, the bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 8.25% for nearly a year, aiming to anchor inflation expectations.

While some traders speculate on potential interest rate hikes, forward-rate agreements indicate a low likelihood of such a move at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

The yield on 10-year bonds also saw a marginal decline following the release of the inflation data.

March’s inflation decline was mainly attributed to lower prices in miscellaneous goods and services, education, health, and housing and utilities.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained relatively steady at 4.9%.

Overall, South Africa’s inflation trajectory underscores the delicate balance between economic recovery and inflation containment amid ongoing global uncertainties.

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