Forex

Forex Weekly Outlook February 6-10

Published

7 years ago

February 5, 2017

Forex Weekly Outlook February 6-10

The US economy remains strong after data from the labor department showed the economy added 227,000 jobs in January. More than 157,000 jobs created in December. But the average hourly earnings drop to 2.5 percent from 2.9 percent year-on year, suggesting that the inflation rate may not be advancing as previously thought. Therefore, the Fed won’t be in rush to hike rates, at least not this March. This is one of the reasons the US dollar lost momentum against most of its counterparts except the British Pound last week.

Accordingly, the productivity level cooled in the fourth quarter to 1.3 percent from 3.5 percent recorded in the third quarter. This further affirm that businesses have relied on more hiring rather than investing in technology to increase efficiency. Still, the services sector expanded (56.5) in January at about the same pace as in the previous month.

However, the uncertainty surrounding the new government policies – fiscal spending, immigration, tax, etc. continued to weigh on the business outlook and dollar strength as businesses and foreign investors are yet to ascertain market direction.

In the U.K, the services sector contracted in January to 54.5 from 56.2 recorded in December as the costs of running a business surged to a 6-year high. The main concern now is the extent to which costs are rising and if it’s temporary or part of the issues raised by Governor Mark Carney on Thursday that there were risks to the economic outlook as the country start its Brexit journey.

Although the U.K. Monetary policy Committee upgraded its economic growth rate for 2017 from 1.4 percent to 2 percent, the governor reiterated that there are risks ahead and that the positive outlook does not negate Brexit consequences.

“The Brexit journey is really just beginning — while the direction of travel is clear, there will be twists and turns along the way,” the BOE governor Mark Carney told a press conference in London on Thursday. He said that with inflation accelerating and risks to growth on the horizon, “we can see scenarios in either direction” for policy.

With uncertainty growing from the US to the Europe, it is clear that commodities like gold and safe haven assets in general remain attractive as investors look to reduce risk exposure while looking for clues as to what the US and Theresa May led Brexit team plan to achieve going forward.

This week USDJPY and GBPJPY top my last for the reason stated above.

USDJPY

I first mentioned this pair sell potential three weeks ago, but rebounded with 78 pips to our first target to hit a mid-term high of 115.60. Ever since it has lost about 332 pips in the last three weeks.

However, with rising uncertainty in the US, investors are likely to continue to jump on safe haven assets like the yen to avoid the US dollar volatility. Hence, this pair is likely to continue its downward trend this week.

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A break of 111.81 support would possibly increase the attractiveness of this pair and open up 109.56 support levels first established in April 2016, which is below 20-day moving average. Below is my previous quote on this pair.

This pair called the top after gaining about 1,384 pips since the emergence of Trump as the president of the U.S. But the pair lost about 250 pips following Trump’s first public conference last week to close at 114.43 support level. This, I will be treating as a risk concern ahead of the new administration’s inauguration. Therefore, I will be expecting the demand for the yen as a safe haven asset to increase while investors await a series of change the president-elect will be passing on to the senate and the ones likely to be approved.

GBPJPY

Three weeks ago, I mentioned here the uncertainty surrounding the British pound and why this pair offer unique sell opportunity. But with the pound sterling uncertainty confirmed by BOE unclear as the UK commence its Brexit journey, the embattled currency remains less attractive and it is likely to get worse by March, 2017 when the Brexit will be officially triggered.

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While on the other hand, the yen remained attractive as investors scramble for the haven asset to reduce risk exposure and avoid volatility.

Again, the weekly candlestick closed as a bearish engulfed pattern, which was below 142.42 support levels –now resistance. With the present yen attractiveness, I will be looking to sell the pair below 142.42 resistance levels this week for 134.90 targets. A break of that level should open up 129.85 as the second target.

Last Week Recap

EURCAD

This week, I remain bearish on this pair for two reasons. One, the surge in risk level in the Euro-area will continue to weigh on euro-single currency. While Canadian dollar will likely remain attractive as commodities like crude oil gain and increase in investments in the country boost its manufacturing sector amid Trump likely favoured trade policy.

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EURGBP

This pair lost its gains after the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney statement alerting investors to potential risk ahead of Brexit. Hence I will be standing aside this week to monitor price action and comments from the UK policy makers.

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Samed Olukoya

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Naira

Black Market Dollar to Naira Exchange Rate Today 17th May 2024

The black market, also known as the parallel market or Aboki fx, US dollar to Nigerian Naira exchange rate as of May 17th, 2024 stood at 1 USD to ₦1,540.

Published

1 day ago

May 17, 2024

Samed Olukoya

The black market, also known as the parallel market or Aboki fx, US dollar to Nigerian Naira exchange rate as of May 17th, 2024 stood at 1 USD to ₦1,540.

Recent data from Bureau De Change (BDC) reveals that buyers in the Lagos Parallel Market purchased a dollar for ₦1,560 and sold it at ₦1,550 on Thursday, May 16th, 2024.

This indicates a slight improvement in the Naira exchange rate when compared to today’s rate.

The black market rate plays a crucial role for investors and participants, offering a real-time reflection of currency dynamics outside official or regulated exchange channels.

Monitoring these rates provides insights into the immediate value of the Naira against the dollar, guiding decision-making processes for individuals and businesses alike.

It’s important to note that while the black market offers valuable insights, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not officially recognize its existence.

The CBN advises individuals engaging in forex transactions to utilize official banking channels, emphasizing the importance of compliance with regulatory frameworks.

How much is dollar to naira today in the black market

For those navigating the currency exchange landscape, here are the latest figures for the black market exchange rate:

Buying Rate: ₦1,540
Selling Rate: ₦1,530

As economic conditions continue to evolve, staying informed about currency exchange rates empowers individuals to make informed financial decisions. While the black market provides immediate insights, adherence to regulatory guidelines ensures stability and transparency in forex transactions.

Forex

SEC and ABCON Explore Collaboration for ‘Kolectyomoni’ Digital Currency Platform

Published

1 day ago

May 17, 2024

Samed Olukoya

The Association of Bureaux De Change Operators of Nigeria (ABCON) has initiated talks with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to explore collaboration on its upcoming digital currency market platform, ‘Kolectyomoni’.

This move was underscored during an official visit by ABCON representatives to the newly appointed Director General of the SEC, Dr. Timi Agama. Aminu Gwadabe, President of ABCON, conveyed the association’s eagerness to engage with SEC to ensure the smooth operation of its digital currency platform.

Gwadabe emphasized that ABCON recognizes the regulatory oversight of SEC in the financial sector and seeks its guidance to navigate the complexities of the digital currency market.

He pointed out that while digital currencies hold immense potential for financial inclusion and innovation, they also present regulatory challenges that require collaborative efforts between industry stakeholders and regulatory bodies.

Highlighting the significance of embracing digital currencies, Gwadabe noted, “The future of BDC’s business is digital currency.”

He stressed the growing adoption of digital currencies among Nigerians, citing statistics that reveal a rising number of participants in the digital currency ecosystem, with a substantial market size of $9 billion annually.

In response, Dr. Timi Agama expressed SEC’s openness to support and facilitate the growth of the digital currency sector in Nigeria.

He acknowledged ABCON’s initiative in launching the ‘Kolectyomoni’ platform and assured of SEC’s cooperation in providing regulatory guidance and oversight.

Agama reaffirmed SEC’s commitment to fostering innovation in the financial sector while ensuring investor protection and market integrity.

He underscored the importance of collaboration between regulators and industry players to develop robust frameworks that foster innovation and safeguard against potential risks.

Furthermore, Agama encouraged ABCON to finalize the development of the ‘Kolectyomoni’ digital currency platform and submit it to the SEC for thorough review and assessment by the technical team.

He emphasized the need for timely regulatory oversight to address emerging trends in the digital currency market and maintain regulatory compliance.

Naira

Black Market Dollar to Naira Exchange Rate Today 16th May 2024

The black market, also known as the parallel market or Aboki fx, US dollar to Nigerian Naira exchange rate as of May 16th, 2024 stood at 1 USD to ₦1,560.

Published

2 days ago

May 16, 2024

Samed Olukoya

The black market, also known as the parallel market or Aboki fx, US dollar to Nigerian Naira exchange rate as of May 16th, 2024 stood at 1 USD to ₦1,560.

Recent data from Bureau De Change (BDC) reveals that buyers in the Lagos Parallel Market purchased a dollar for ₦1,530 and sold it at ₦1,520 on Wednesday, May 15th, 2024.

This indicates a decline in the Naira exchange rate compared to the current rate.

The black market rate plays a crucial role for investors and participants, offering a real-time reflection of currency dynamics outside official or regulated exchange channels.

Monitoring these rates provides insights into the immediate value of the Naira against the dollar, guiding decision-making processes for individuals and businesses alike.

It’s important to note that while the black market offers valuable insights, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not officially recognize its existence.

The CBN advises individuals engaging in forex transactions to utilize official banking channels, emphasizing the importance of compliance with regulatory frameworks.