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Nigeria Gains $22m From Bonny Light Crude

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OPEC
  • Nigeria Gains $22m From Bonny Light Crude in December

The price of Nigeria’s Bonny Light crude oil was the second highest in December among members of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Counties (OPEC), rising from $42.20 in November to $53.91 per barrel.

This means the country gained about $11.71 per barrel in December. Nigeria therefore, may have added $22 million to its foreign exchange earnings when multiplied by current production of 1.9 million barrels per day in December.

The gain also boosts Nigeria’s capacity to fund its N7.3 trillion 2017 budget, and if the gains continue, may reduce the dependence on external borrowings to fund the budget and other development projects.

Besides, the World Bank expects oil prices to average $55/barrel in 2017, an increase of 29 per cent above the 2016 average price.Also, Global crude oil balances is expected to tighten through 2018, the United States Energy Information Administration (EIA) said last week in a statement.

Analysis from OPEC reference basket revealed Abu Dhabi’s Murban crude oil as the only blend ahead of Bonny Light at the international market in December.

Giving a full year analysis of the price movement, OPEC said the light sweet crude from West and North Africa’s Basket components, Saharan Blend, Es Sider, Girassol, Bonny Light and Gabon’s Rabi, gained $8.53, or 19.1 per cent, to $53.10 during the month under review.

Speaking on rebalancing the oil market, the Secretary-Generals of OPEC, Muhammad Barkindo, said it is essential that all producers, both OPEC and non- OPEC, take coordinated action to return stability to the market.

“This is not only vital for the short term, but the long term too, as our industry looks to fund investment in new exploration and production, arrest decline rates in existing fields, expand midstream and downstream capacity, and hire, train and support the people that will continue to drive this industry forward in the years ahead.”

Meanwhile, the World Bank said in its Commodity Markets Outlook for 2017 released last Wednesday, that the increase largely reflects partial compliance to the recent agreement between OPEC and non-OPEC producers.

According to World Bank, the market is expected to tighten in 2017, particularly in the second half of the year, which would reduce the large stock overhang.

It added that onshore U.S. lower-48 states oil production, including shale, is projected to bottom out in the second quarter of 2017, and rise moderately thereafter.

The Bank noted that prices may increase to $60 barrels in 2018, assuming a balanced market and no additional OPEC supply restraint.It stated: “Crude oil prices jumped 10 per cent in the fourth quarter, averaging $49.1 barrels, following agreements by both OPEC and non-OPEC producers to reduce output by nearly 1.8 million barrels per day in the first half of 2017.

“The oil market continues to rebalance amid steady demand growth, while sharply lower in- vestment in non-OPEC countries has led to lower production, notably in the U.S. shale oil sector.”

Also, the EIA estimates that crude oil and other liquids inventories grew by two million barrels per day (bpd) in the fourth quarter of 2016, driven by an increase in production and a significant, but seasonal, drop in consumption.

Global production and consumption are both projected to increase through 2018, but consumption is expected to increase at a faster rate than production. As a result, global balances are expected to tighten.

The EIA noted that the production increase in the fourth quarter of 2016 largely reflects members of OPEC ramping up production in advance of implementing the November agreement on production cuts.

Nigeria’s Petroleum Resources Minister, Dr Ibe Kachikwu, had expressed optimism that the price of crude would rise to a level that is neither too high nor too low.

He said although crude oil appears to have fallen into bad times because of prevailing low price and the campaign against the use of fossil fuels for environmental reasons, the product would soon rise up to take its place as the prime global energy source.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Economy

Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

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Gas-Pipeline

The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

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IMF Report: Nigeria’s Inflation to Dip to 26.3% in 2024, Growth Expected at 3.3%

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IMF global - Investors King

Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2024 appears cautiously optimistic with projections indicating a potential decrease in the country’s inflation rate alongside moderate economic growth.

The IMF’s revised Global Economic Outlook for 2024 highlights key forecasts for Nigeria’s economic landscape and gave insights into both inflationary trends and GDP expansion.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 26.3% by the end of 2024.

This projection aligns with expectations of a gradual easing of inflationary pressures within the country, although challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate fluctuations continue to pose significant hurdles to price stability.

In tandem with the inflation forecast, the IMF also predicts a modest economic growth rate of 3.3% for Nigeria in 2024.

This growth projection reflects a cautious optimism regarding the country’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of various internal and external challenges.

Despite the ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and address macroeconomic imbalances, the IMF underscores the need for continued policy reforms and prudent fiscal management to sustain growth momentum.

The IMF report provides valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic trajectory, offering policymakers, investors, and stakeholders a comprehensive understanding of the country’s macroeconomic dynamics.

While the projected decline in inflation and modest growth outlook offer reasons for cautious optimism, it remains essential for Nigerian authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing underlying structural vulnerabilities and promoting inclusive economic development.

As the country navigates through a challenging economic landscape, concerted efforts towards policy coordination, investment promotion, and structural reforms will be crucial in unlocking Nigeria’s full growth potential and fostering long-term prosperity.

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South Africa’s March Inflation Hits Two-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

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South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s inflation rate declined to a two-month low, according to data released by Statistics South Africa.

Consumer prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in February. While this decline may initially suggest a positive trend, analysts caution against premature optimism due to various economic factors at play.

The weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, coupled with drought conditions affecting staple crops like white corn and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices, poses significant challenges.

These factors are expected to keep inflation relatively high and stubborn in the coming months, making policymakers hesitant to adjust borrowing costs.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, reiterated the bank’s cautious stance on inflation pressures.

Despite the recent easing, inflation has consistently remained above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3-6% since May 2021. Consequently, the bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 8.25% for nearly a year, aiming to anchor inflation expectations.

While some traders speculate on potential interest rate hikes, forward-rate agreements indicate a low likelihood of such a move at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

The yield on 10-year bonds also saw a marginal decline following the release of the inflation data.

March’s inflation decline was mainly attributed to lower prices in miscellaneous goods and services, education, health, and housing and utilities.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained relatively steady at 4.9%.

Overall, South Africa’s inflation trajectory underscores the delicate balance between economic recovery and inflation containment amid ongoing global uncertainties.

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