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External Reserves Rise by 12% in Three Weeks

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Forex Weekly Outlook January 16-20
  • External Reserves Rise by 12% in Three Weeks

The country’s external reserves increased by 12 per cent within a period of three weeks, it has been learnt.

The Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, Mr. Godwin Emefiele, had on Tuesday said the country’s external reserves had hit $28.9bn.

This means that the reserves have increased by $3.1bn within the first three weeks of this year. This is approximately a 12 per cent increase when compared to the $25.8bn the reserves recorded on the last day of 2016.

However, on the CBN website, the reserves rose to $27.82bn on January 25 from $27.76 on January 24, after hitting $27.69 on January 23.

The country’s foreign exchange reserves had increased to $27.49bn on January 20, according to the statistics.

The external reserves rose by 8.9 per cent month-on-month to $27.49bn on January 20.

Year-on-year, the reserves however recorded a decline of 3.17 per cent compared to January 2016.

The CBN has yet to provide any reason for the recent rise in reserves, although it may be due to the rise in global oil prices and production levels.

The reserves had risen by 15 per cent or $3.6bn from $23.8bn recorded on October 19, 2016 to $27.4bn on January 19.

This year alone, the foreign exchange reserves have risen by $1.9bn or 7.4 per cent.

The Group Managing Director, Afrinvest West Africa Limited, Mr. Ike Chioke, said the recent accretion in the external reserves was due to both increase in oil prices and production output as well as slowdown in foreign exchange allocation by the CBN.

“Yes, there have been increases in the external reserves but we are not paying our bills. Take for instance if you settle the $4bn obligation, we will be down again to about $23bn,” he said during the release of the investment advisory firm’s economic outlook for 2017 on Tuesday.

The country’s external reserves, which have been increasing significantly in recent months, had risen to $27.3bn on January 17 after hitting $26.9bn on January 13.

Within a period of 11 days, the reserves increased by $1bn, rising from $26.3bn on January 6 to $27.3bn on January 17, according to the central bank’s statistics.

Between December 30, 2016 and January 12, 2017, the foreign exchange reserves rose from $25.8bn to $26.8bn, indicating an accretion of $1bn in two weeks.

Following the gradual increase in crude oil price and production output, the foreign exchange reserves have been rising steadily since November.

Like Chioke, other currency and economic experts are not sure if the current accretion in the external reserves’ is sustainable amid a falling naira and acute shortage of dollar in the foreign exchange markets and the economy.

The CBN had spent $4bn from the nation’s external reserves to defend the local currency last year, despite the staggering fall in the value of the naira against the United States dollar and other major foreign currencies during the period.

The controversial defence of the naira by the CBN has come under severe criticism by economists, who believe forces of demand and supply should be allowed to determine the exchange rate of the naira.

The country’s reserves had recorded $23.89bn low on October 19. The reserves dropped by 15.9 per cent between 2015 and 2016

The reserves ended last year with $25.84bn on December 30, 2016.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Loans

Akinwumi Adesina Calls for Debt Transparency to Safeguard African Economic Growth

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Akinwumi Adesina

Amidst the backdrop of mounting concerns over Africa’s ballooning external debt, Akinwumi Adesina, the President of the African Development Bank (AfDB), has emphatically called for greater debt transparency to protect the continent’s economic growth trajectory.

In his address at the Semafor Africa Summit, held alongside the International Monetary Fund and World Bank 2024 Spring Meetings, Adesina highlighted the detrimental impact of non-transparent resource-backed loans on African economies.

He stressed that such loans not only complicate debt resolution but also jeopardize countries’ future growth prospects.

Adesina explained the urgent need for accountability and transparency in debt management, citing the continent’s debt burden of $824 billion as of 2021.

With countries dedicating a significant portion of their GDP to servicing these obligations, Adesina warned that the current trajectory could hinder Africa’s development efforts.

One of the key concerns raised by Adesina was the shift from concessional financing to more expensive and short-term commercial debt, particularly Eurobonds, which now constitute a substantial portion of Africa’s total debt.

He criticized the prevailing ‘Africa premium’ that raises borrowing costs for African countries despite their lower default rates compared to other regions.

Adesina called for a paradigm shift in the perception of risk associated with African investments, advocating for a more nuanced approach that reflects the continent’s economic potential.

He stated the importance of an orderly and predictable debt resolution framework, called for the expedited implementation of the G20 Common Framework.

The AfDB President also outlined various initiatives and instruments employed by the bank to mitigate risks and attract institutional investors, including partial credit guarantees and synthetic securitization.

He expressed optimism about Africa’s renewable energy sector and highlighted the Africa Investment Forum as a catalyst for large-scale investments in critical sectors.

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Banking Sector

UBA, Access Holdings, and FBN Holdings Lead Nigerian Banks in Electronic Banking Revenue

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UBA House Marina

United Bank for Africa (UBA) Plc, Access Holdings Plc, and FBN Holdings Plc have emerged as frontrunners in electronic banking revenue among the country’s top financial institutions.

Data revealed that these banks led the pack in income from electronic banking services throughout the 2023 fiscal year.

UBA reported the highest electronic banking income of  N125.5 billion in 2023, up from N78.9 billion recorded in the previous year.

Similarly, Access Holdings grew electronic banking revenue from N59.6 billion in the previous year to N101.6 billion in the year under review.

FBN Holdings also experienced an increase in electronic banking revenue from N55 billion in 2022 to N66 billion.

The rise in electronic banking revenue underscores the pivotal role played by these banks in facilitating digital financial transactions across Nigeria.

As the nation embraces digitalization and transitions towards cashless transactions, these banks have capitalized on the growing demand for electronic banking services.

Tesleemah Lateef, a bank analyst at Cordros Securities Limited, attributed the increase in electronic banking income to the surge in online transactions driven by the cashless policy implemented in the first quarter of 2023.

The policy incentivized individuals and businesses to conduct more transactions through digital channels, resulting in a substantial uptick in electronic banking revenue.

Furthermore, the combined revenue from electronic banking among the top 10 Nigerian banks surged to N427 billion from N309 billion, reflecting the industry’s robust growth trajectory in digital financial services.

The impressive performance of UBA, Access Holdings, and FBN Holdings underscores their strategic focus on leveraging technology to enhance customer experience and drive financial inclusion.

By investing in digital payment infrastructure and promoting digital payments among their customers, these banks have cemented their position as industry leaders in the rapidly evolving landscape of electronic banking in Nigeria.

As the Central Bank of Nigeria continues to promote digital payments and reduce the country’s dependence on cash, banks are poised to further capitalize on the opportunities presented by the digital economy.

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Loans

Nigeria’s $2.25 Billion Loan Request to Receive Final Approval from World Bank in June

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IMF - Investors King

Nigeria’s $2.25 billion loan request is expected to receive final approval from the World Bank in June.

The loan, consisting of $1.5 billion in Development Policy Financing and $750 million in Programme-for-Results Financing, aims to bolster Nigeria’s developmental efforts.

Finance Minister Wale Edun hailed the loan as a “free lunch,” highlighting its favorable terms, including a 40-year term, 10 years of moratorium, and a 1% interest rate.

Edun highlighted the loan’s quasi-grant nature, providing substantial financial support to Nigeria’s economic endeavors.

While the loan request awaits formal approval in June, Edun revealed that the World Bank’s board of directors had already greenlit the credit, currently undergoing processing.

The loan signifies a vote of confidence in Nigeria’s economic resilience and strategic response to global challenges, as showcased during the recent Spring Meetings.

Nigeria’s delegation, led by Edun, underscored the nation’s commitment to addressing economic obstacles and leveraging international partnerships for sustainable development.

With the impending approval of the $2.25 billion loan, Nigeria looks poised to embark on transformative initiatives, buoyed by crucial financial backing from the World Bank.

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