- Fitch Downgrades Nigeria’s Outlook to Negative
Fitch Ratings has revised the outlook on Nigeria’s long-term foreign and local currency Issuer Default Ratings to negative from stable and affirmed the IDRs at ‘B+.’
The issue ratings on Nigeria’s senior unsecured foreign currency bonds have also been affirmed at ‘B+’, while the ‘Country Ceiling’ was affirmed at ‘B+.
According to a statement by Fitch, the short-term foreign and local currency IDRs have been affirmed at ‘B.’
The revision of the outlook on Nigeria’s long-term IDRs reflected the following key rating drivers.
These include the tight foreign exchange liquidity and low oil production contributed to Nigeria’s first recession since 1994.
The economy contracted through the first three quarters of 2016 and Fitch estimate the Gross Domestic Product growth of -1.5 per cent in 2016 as a whole.
The statement read in part, “We expect a limited economic recovery in 2017, with growth of 1.5 per cent, well below the 2011-15 annual growth average of 4.8 per cent.
It added, “The non-oil economy will continue to be constrained by tight foreign exchange liquidity. Inflationary pressures are high with year-on-year Consumer Price Index inflation increased to 18.5 per cent in December.
“Access to foreign exchange will remain severely restricted until the Central Bank of Nigeria can establish the credibility of the interbank foreign exchange market and bring down the spread between the official rate and the parallel market rates.
“The spot rate for the naira has settled at a range of 305-315 per United States dollar in the official market, while the Bureau de Change rate depreciated to as low as 490 per dollar in November 2016.”
In an effort to work with the CBN to help the parallel market rates converge with the official, the BDC operators had a few weeks ago adopted a reference rate of 400 per dollar.
Fitch, however, noted that the dollar had continued to sell on the black market at rates well above N400.
The global rating agency forecasts that the Federal Government’s cost of debt servicing in 2017 will reach 1.4 per cent of the GDP, up from an average of 1.1 per cent over the previous five years.
According to the agency, the Nigerian banking sector has experienced worsening asset quality as a result of the weakening economy, problems in the oil industry, and exchange rate pressures on borrowers to service their loans.
It added, “The CBN reported that industry non-performing loans grew to 11.7 per cent of gross loans at the end of June 2016, up from 5.3 per cent at the end of December 2015. Tight foreign currency liquidity has also led to some Nigerian banks experiencing difficulty in meeting their trade finance obligations which were either extended or refinanced with international correspondent banks.”
On the current rating on Nigeria, statement said, “Fitch does not currently anticipate developments with a material likelihood of leading to an upgrade.
“However, the following factors could lead to positive rating action: A revival of economic growth supported by the sustained implementation of coherent macroeconomic policies; reduction of the fiscal deficit and the maintenance of a manageable debt burden; increase in foreign exchange reserves to a level that reduces vulnerability to external shocks; successful implementation of economic or structural reforms, for instance raising non-oil revenues, increasing the execution of capital expenditures and passing the Petroleum Industry Bill.”
Increased Demand Paves The Way for Expansion of Africa’s Sugar Industry
Africa, June 2021: A new focus report produced by the Oxford Business Group (OBG), in partnership with the International Sugar Organization (ISO), explores the potential that Africa’s sugar industry holds for growth on the back of an anticipated rise in regional demand. The report was presented to ISO members during the MECAS meeting at the Organization’s 58th Council Session, on June 17th 2021.
Titled “Sugar in Africa”, the report highlights the opportunities for investors to contribute to the industry’s development by helping to bridge infrastructure gaps in segments such as farming and refining and port facilities.
The report considers the benefits that the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) could deliver by supporting fair intra-African sugar trade efforts and bringing regulatory frameworks under a common umbrella, which will be key to improving competitiveness.
The increased international focus on ESG standards is another topical issue examined. Here, the report charts the initiatives already under way in Africa supported by green-focused investment with sustainability at their core, which will help to instil confidence in new investors keen to adhere to ESG principles in their decision-making.
In addition, subscribers will find coverage of the impact that Covid-19 had on the industry, with detailed analysis provided of the decrease in both worldwide sugar production and prices, as movement restrictions and social-distancing measures took their toll on operations.
The report shines a spotlight on sugar production in key markets across the continent, noting regional differences in terms of output and assessing individual countries’ roles as net exporters and importers.
It also includes an interview with José Orive, Executive Director, International Sugar Organisation, in which he maps out the particularities of the African sugar industry, while sharing his thoughts on what needs to be done to promote continental trade and sustainable development.
“The region is well advanced in terms of sugar production overall, but several challenges still hinder its full potential,” he said. “It is not enough to just produce sugar; producers must be able to move it to buyers efficiently. When all negotiations related to the AfCFTA have concluded, we expect greater investment across the continent and a clearer regulatory framework.”
Karine Loehman, OBG’s Managing Director for Africa, said that while the challenges faced by Africa’s sugar producers shouldn’t be underestimated, the new report produced with the ISO pointed to an industry primed for growth on the back of anticipated increased consumption across the continent and higher levels of output in sub-Saharan Africa.
“Regional demand for sugar is expected to rise in the coming years, driven up by Africa’s population growth and drawing a line under declines triggered by the Covid-19 pandemic,” she said. “With sub-Saharan Africa’s per capita sugar consumption currently standing at around half of the global average, the opportunities to help meet increasing domestic need by boosting production are considerable.”
The study on Africa’s sugar industry forms part of a series of tailored reports that OBG is currently producing with its partners, alongside other highly relevant, go-to research tools, including a range of country-specific Growth and Recovery Outlook articles and interviews.
Global Demand for Investment Gold Plunged by 70% YoY to 161 Metric Tons in Q1 2021
Last year, investors flocked to gold as stock markets crashed on a gloomy economic outlook due to the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. In the second quarter of 2020, global demand for investment gold surged to over 591 metric tons, the second-highest level since 2016. However, the investors’ demand for gold has dropped significantly this year.
According to data compiled by AksjeBloggen, global demand for investment gold plunged by 70% year-over-year to 161 metric tons in the first quarter of 2021.
The Lowest Quarterly Figures after Record Gold Investments in 2020
In 2016, the global gold demand amounted to 4,309 metric tons, revealed Statista and the World Gold Council data. By the end of 2019, this figure rose to 4,356 metric tons. Investment gold accounted for 30% of that amount. Worldwide gold jewelry demand volumes reached 2,118 metric tons that year. Central banks and technology followed with 648 and 326 metric tons, respectively.
Statistics show the global demand for investment gold surged amid the COVID-19 outbreak, growing by 35% YoY to almost 1,800 metric tons in 2020. Demands for gold used in technology also rose by 17% to 383.4 metric tons, while central banks and other institutions bought 326.2 metric tons of gold in 2020, a 50% plunge in a year.
However, after record gold investments in 2020, the global demand for gold for investment purposes dropped to the lowest quarterly level in years.
The Price of Gold Dropped by 5% Since January
The average gold value tends to increase during a recession, making it an attractive investment in uncertain times. In February 2019, a troy ounce of gold cost $1,320.07, revealed the Statista and World Gold Council data. By the end of that year, the price of gold rose to $1,479.13.
The gold price continued growing throughout 2020, reaching an all-time high of over $2,000 in August. By the end of the year, the precious metal price slipped to $1,864 and then rose to over $1,950 in January 2021.
However, the first quarter of the year brought a negative trend, with the price of gold falling to $1,684 by the end of March. Statistics indicate the price of gold stood at around $1,860 last week, a 5% drop since the beginning of the year.
Gold, Other Safe Haven Assets Plunge Ahead of Fed Rate Hikes
Gold and other safe-haven assets plunged last week as the Federal Reserve signals the possibility of raising interest rates twice in 2023 given the ongoing economic recovery post-COVID-19.
The price of gold dropped by 6.04 percent last week as investors rushed to move their funds out of safe-haven assets including the new gold, cryptocurrency.
The entire crypto space sheds $898 billion in market value to hover around $1.625 trillion last week, down from $2.523 trillion recorded on Wednesday 12, 2021. Its highest market capitalisation till date.
The Federal Reserve raised inflation expectations to 3.4 percent and shifted the year it is expected to increase interest rates from near-zero to 2023 from the previously projected 2024.
The new hawkish stance of the central bank led to capital outflow from safe havens and subsequently boosted dollar attraction.
The United States Dollar gained across the board with the dollar index that tracks its performance against six major currencies, rising by 0.63 percent to 91.103 last week.
However, on Monday morning the gold showed signs of recovery, gaining 0.5 percent to $1,772.34 per ounce following the retreat in U.S. treasury yield that boosted the attraction of non-yielding metal.
Bitcoin, the most dominant cryptocurrency coin, pared losses to $33,245 per coin, up from the $32,658 decline it posted last week.
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