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Oil Prices Rise, Interbank Rate Jumps

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  • Oil Prices Rise, Interbank Rate Jumps

Oil futures climbed on Friday as signs of the market tightening after major oil producers agreed to cut output helped set prices up for a modest gain on the week.

The nation’s interbank lending rate also rose to close at 11.5 per cent on Friday, up from seven per cent the previous week as payments for bond and treasury bills purchases drained liquidity from the money market.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, February West Texas Intermediate crude CLG7, +1.99 per cent jumped $1.47, or 2.9 per cent, to $52.84 a barrel. The contract, which expires at the day’s settlement, finished last Friday at $52.37; so it was trading around 0.9 per cent higher for the week, according to FactSet data.

The report said March Brent crude LCOH7, +2.42% on London’s ICE Futures exchange advanced by $1.54, or 2.8 per cent, to $55.7- a barrel—up around 0.5 per cent for the week.

Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih, speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos last week, reportedly said that there had been strong compliance among members and non-members of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to the production cut agreement that kicked in at the start of the year.

News reports also quoted him as saying on Friday that 1.5 million barrels a day of the roughly 1.8 million in cuts pledged by OPEC and non-OPEC countries had already been taken out of the market.

Al-Falih also warned that there could be a shortage of oil supply by 2020 if investment flows continued at their current rate, according to the CNBC.

Comments from Saudi Arabia regarding progress on the output cuts “is giving the market some increased confidence that cheating will be limited and markets will continue to rebalance,” a senior energy analyst at Edward Jones, Brian Youngberg, told MarketWatch.

A committee created to monitor oil-producer compliance with the promised cuts was scheduled to meet at the weekend, the report added

“Since there are mixed expectations on how much of the cuts will come to fruition, any comments one way or the other will sway markets any particular day,” said Youngberg.

In a monthly report issued last week, the International Energy Agency said OPEC production had slowed, declining by 320,000 barrels a day to 33.09 million barrels in December.

“Early indications suggest a deeper OPEC reduction may be under way for January, as Saudi Arabia and its neighbors enforce supply cuts,” the IEA said.

Meanwhile, traders said the lending rate jumped on Friday as some banks scrambled for cash to pay for bonds and treasury bills, Reuters reported.

The Federal Government had on Wednesday raised N214.95bn ($704m) from local currency bonds at its first auction this year, with payment for the bonds due on Friday.

The naira weakened slightly at the open or unofficial market to 498 to the dollar against 497 previously as inadequate greenback supply pressured the local currency.

The local currency, however closed flat at the official interbank window at 305.50 to the dollar, the level it has traded at since August last year.

Travelex, an international money transfer firm, sold around $20m to 2,500 Bureaux de Change operators on Thursday at $8,000 each, but the supply was not enough to calm the market, traders said.

The BDCs quoted their official selling rate at 399 to the dollar on Friday.

The government has been pressing retail operators to narrow what it says is a damaging gulf between the naira’s official rate and the unapproved open retail market.

“We see the interbank rate drop below the double-digit next week on anticipation of budgetary disbursal to government agencies,” one trader said.

Traders said the local currency might firm a bit as international money transfer agents planned to sell another round of dollars to the bureau de change operators next Thursday.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

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Gas-Pipeline

The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

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Economy

IMF Report: Nigeria’s Inflation to Dip to 26.3% in 2024, Growth Expected at 3.3%

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IMF global - Investors King

Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2024 appears cautiously optimistic with projections indicating a potential decrease in the country’s inflation rate alongside moderate economic growth.

The IMF’s revised Global Economic Outlook for 2024 highlights key forecasts for Nigeria’s economic landscape and gave insights into both inflationary trends and GDP expansion.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 26.3% by the end of 2024.

This projection aligns with expectations of a gradual easing of inflationary pressures within the country, although challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate fluctuations continue to pose significant hurdles to price stability.

In tandem with the inflation forecast, the IMF also predicts a modest economic growth rate of 3.3% for Nigeria in 2024.

This growth projection reflects a cautious optimism regarding the country’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of various internal and external challenges.

Despite the ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and address macroeconomic imbalances, the IMF underscores the need for continued policy reforms and prudent fiscal management to sustain growth momentum.

The IMF report provides valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic trajectory, offering policymakers, investors, and stakeholders a comprehensive understanding of the country’s macroeconomic dynamics.

While the projected decline in inflation and modest growth outlook offer reasons for cautious optimism, it remains essential for Nigerian authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing underlying structural vulnerabilities and promoting inclusive economic development.

As the country navigates through a challenging economic landscape, concerted efforts towards policy coordination, investment promotion, and structural reforms will be crucial in unlocking Nigeria’s full growth potential and fostering long-term prosperity.

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South Africa’s March Inflation Hits Two-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

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South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s inflation rate declined to a two-month low, according to data released by Statistics South Africa.

Consumer prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in February. While this decline may initially suggest a positive trend, analysts caution against premature optimism due to various economic factors at play.

The weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, coupled with drought conditions affecting staple crops like white corn and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices, poses significant challenges.

These factors are expected to keep inflation relatively high and stubborn in the coming months, making policymakers hesitant to adjust borrowing costs.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, reiterated the bank’s cautious stance on inflation pressures.

Despite the recent easing, inflation has consistently remained above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3-6% since May 2021. Consequently, the bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 8.25% for nearly a year, aiming to anchor inflation expectations.

While some traders speculate on potential interest rate hikes, forward-rate agreements indicate a low likelihood of such a move at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

The yield on 10-year bonds also saw a marginal decline following the release of the inflation data.

March’s inflation decline was mainly attributed to lower prices in miscellaneous goods and services, education, health, and housing and utilities.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained relatively steady at 4.9%.

Overall, South Africa’s inflation trajectory underscores the delicate balance between economic recovery and inflation containment amid ongoing global uncertainties.

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