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Forex Weekly Outlook January 23-27

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canadian dollar
  • Forex Weekly Outlook January 23-27

Last week, the US data showed inflation rate rose 0.3 percent in December, while industrial output rebounded from 0.7 percent to 0.8 percent, with a capacity utilization rate of 75.5 percent. Although, the economy continued to churn out data in-line with the Federal Reserve projection for maximum employment and price stability, the US dollar dip during the week.

This is because the uncertainty surrounding the new administration’s likely policy going forward and global events like Theresa May’s proposed Brexit’s exit strategy is hurting the attractiveness of the dollar.

However, the Federal Reserve Chair, Yellen Janet, said with the unemployment rate nearing its longer-run normal level and likely to move a bit lower this year, the labor market remains healthy and will continue to create more jobs. This is one of the reasons investors are positive the Fed will raise rates at least 3 times this year, hence, the surge in demand for bonds.

In the UK, the Prime Minister Theresa May on Tuesday pitched post-Brexit strategy to the world and finally succumb to pressure to allow the parliament to vote on the final Brexit deal, a clause that changed the mid-term outlook of the pound as businesses, investors and stakeholders believe the deal has to be inclusive before parliament will approve it. This bolstered the pound to its highest two-day rally since 2009.

While, the UK economy continued to sustain its 4.8 percent unemployment rate, rising average earnings of 2.8 percent from 2.6 percent and strong consumer spending. The governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney sees weaker growth and rising inflation rate in 2017. Largely, the pound outlook remained uncertain as the country gets ready to exit the European Union 500 million consumers’ market.

In China, the economy grew by 6.8 percent in the 4th quarter of 2016, beating 6.7 percent forecast by analysts. While, on a yearly basis the industrial output rose by 6 percent, slightly below the 6.2 percent recorded a year earlier. The Chinese economy remains moderately strong as capital outflow that saw about $305 billion leave the economy in 2016 has started declining, while fixed asset investment surge to 8.1 percent (ytd).

Overall, the global financial is expected to remain uncertain until investors can deduce succinctly the direction of central banks’ policies, and most importantly the series of changes the 45th president of the United States of America will be making to fiscal policy.

GBPUSD

Last week, the pound gained 431 pips against the US dollar after Theresa May’s speech on Brexit strategy. But the pair remains below the 1.2534 resistance level that doubled as 20-day moving average.

Similarly, the drop in demand for the US dollar contributed to the pound gain, which means an increase in dollar demand this week could dampen the pound progress and reinforce the continuation of long-term bearish trend.

Forex Weekly Outlook January 23-27

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However, sustained break of 1.2534 resistant levels, will likely increase buyers’ interest and open up 1.2809 resistance levels as target 2. But failure to break 1.2534 will increase sellers’ interest. So this week, I will be monitoring price action alongside comments from policy makers to trade GBPUSD.

CADJPY

The series of data released last week showed Canadian economy is still struggling with weak inflation rate (-0.2%) and low consumer spending. Although, the manufacturing sector has started picking up, but the uncertainty surrounding crude oil and the increase in demand for haven asset continued to aid CADJPY.

Forex Weekly Outlook January 23-27

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This week, I am bearish on this pair as long as 86.36 resistance holds. While looking to sell below 86.03 price levels for 84.04 targets.

Last Week Recap

GBPJPY

The prime minister May’s comment bolstered all pound against its counterpart last week, hence, invalidating our projection for this pair. This week, I will stand aside to monitor price action better.

Forex Weekly Outlook January 23-27

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USDJPY

This pair retraced 4 days to the inauguration after dropping about 180 pips. This week, I remain bearish on this pair and will look to sell below 114.43 support level.

Forex Weekly Outlook January 23-27

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CEO/Founder Investors King Ltd, a foreign exchange research analyst, contributing author on New York-based Talk Markets and Investing.com, with over a decade experience in the global financial markets.

Forex

Dollar Pulls Back as the World Prepares for New US President

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Global debt

Dollar Pulls Back as the World Prepares for New US President

US Dollar pulled back on Tuesday ahead of Joe Biden’s inauguration following a week of consistent gains.

The United States dollar pared gains against the European common currency to $1.21444 per Euro as investors abandoned the greenback for Gold and other haven assets ahead of Wednesday’s inauguration.

Against New Zealand Kiwi, the dollar was largely unchanged and remained steady within 0.70787 support level and 0.71401 resistance level.

However, against the Japanese Yen, the United States Dollar gained on Tuesday to 103.966.

Despite the uncertainties surrounding global growth and COVID-19 vaccine deployment, OPEC is bullish on oil demand in 2021.

In its latest outlook for the year, OPEC left demand unchanged for the year even as experts are projecting disruption from U.S producers given the series of stimulus planned by the incoming administration.

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Naira

Daily Naira Exchange Rates (Black Market, CBN Official Rates, Bureau De Change) Monday, January 18, 2021

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Daily Naira Exchange Rates (Black Market, CBN Official Rates, Bureau De Change) Monday, January 18, 2021

Naira exchange rate decline to N642 against the British Pound and remained pressure at N475 and N580 against the US Dollar And Euro, respectively.

Date USD GBP EURO YUAN Canadian Australian
NGN BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL
18/01/2021 470/475 635/642 572/580 60/70 375/385 245/293
15/01/2021 470/475 635/642 573/580 60/70 375/385 245/293
14/01/2021 470/475 630/640 570/580 60/70 375/385 245/293
13/01/2021 470/474 630/637 570/580 60/70 375/385 245/293
12/01/2021 470/475 630/637 575/580 60/70 375/385 245/293
11/01/2021 468/675 625/635 575/582 60/70 372/382 245/293
08/01/2021 467/672 622/630 570/575 60/70 365/378 245/293
07/01/2021 465/470 620/628 570/575 60/70 365/378 245/293
06/01/2021 465/470 620/628 565/570 60/70 365/378 245/293
05/01/2021 465/470 620/628 565/572 60/70 365/378 245/293
04/01/2021 465/470 620/628 565/572 60/70 365/378 245/293
31/12/2020 465/470 620/628 567/573 60/70 365/378 245/293
30/12/2020 465/470 620/628 567/573 60/70 365/378 245/293
29/12/2020 465/470 620/628 565/573 60/70 365/378 245/293
28/12/2020 460/465 615/625 560/570 60/70 350/367 245/293
25/12/2020 460/465 615/625 560/570 60/70 350/367 245/293
24/12/2020 460/465 615/625 560/570 60/70 350/367 245/293
23/12/2020 470/475 622/632 575/580 60/70 350/367 245/293
22/12/2020 472/476 622/630 570/578 60/70 340/362 250/295
21/12/2020 472/476 622/632 570/580 55/68 340/362 250/295
18/12/2020 472/477 622/630 570/577 55/68 340/362 250/295

 Bureau De Change Naira Rates

Date USD GBP EURO
NGN BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL
18/01/2020 460/475 635/643 570/580
15/01/2020 460/475 630/638 570/577
14/01/2020 460/475 630/638 570/577
13/01/2020 460/470 626/633 565/576
12/01/2020 460/470 626/633 566/576
11/01/2020 460/470 620/630 560/573
08/01/2020 460/470 615/625 555/573
07/01/2020 460/470 615/623 550/570
06/01/2020 460/470 610/623 550/572
05/01/2020 460/470 615/624 550/572
04/01/2020 460/470 615/624 550/572
31/12/2020 460/470 600/626 550/573
30/12/2020 460/470 600/626 550/573
29/12/2020 455/475 600/626 550/573
28/12/2020 455/475 605/628 555/573
25/12/2020 455/475 600/628 550/575
24/12/2020 455/474 600/628 555/575
23/12/2020 460/475 621/632 568/580
22/12/2020 470/475 620/631 568/577
21/12/2020 470/475 620/631 568/577

Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Official Naira Exchange Rates

Date Currency Buying(NGN) Central(NGN) Selling(NGN)
1/15/2021 US DOLLAR 379 379.5 380
1/15/2021 POUNDS STERLING 516.9181 517.6001 518.282
1/15/2021 EURO 459.4996 460.1058 460.712
1/15/2021 SWISS FRANC 426.8499 427.413 427.9761
1/15/2021 YEN 3.6548 3.6596 3.6644
1/15/2021 CFA 0.6839 0.6939 0.7039
1/15/2021 WAUA 545.8708 546.5909 547.3111
1/15/2021 YUAN/RENMINBI 58.531 58.6087 58.6864
1/15/2021 RIYAL 101.0236 101.1568 101.2901
1/15/2021 SOUTH AFRICAN RAND 24.8724 24.9052 24.938

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Naira

Daily Naira Exchange Rates (Parallel Market, Bureau De Change and CBN Rates); Friday, January 15, 2021

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Nigeria 500 naira notes

Daily Naira Exchange Rates (Parallel Market, Bureau De Change and CBN Rates); Friday, January 15, 2021

The Nigerian Naira remained under pressure against the United States Dollar on the parallel market at N475 exchange rate, while the value has not improved against the Euro and Pound, inflation rose to 15.75 percent in the month of December to further compound Nigeria’s predicament.

Date USD GBP EURO YUAN Canadian Australian
NGN BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL
15/01/2021 470/475 635/642 573/580 60/70 375/385 245/293
14/01/2021 470/475 630/640 570/580 60/70 375/385 245/293
13/01/2021 470/474 630/637 570/580 60/70 375/385 245/293
12/01/2021 470/475 630/637 575/580 60/70 375/385 245/293
11/01/2021 468/675 625/635 575/582 60/70 372/382 245/293
08/01/2021 467/672 622/630 570/575 60/70 365/378 245/293
07/01/2021 465/470 620/628 570/575 60/70 365/378 245/293
06/01/2021 465/470 620/628 565/570 60/70 365/378 245/293
05/01/2021 465/470 620/628 565/572 60/70 365/378 245/293
04/01/2021 465/470 620/628 565/572 60/70 365/378 245/293
31/12/2020 465/470 620/628 567/573 60/70 365/378 245/293
30/12/2020 465/470 620/628 567/573 60/70 365/378 245/293
29/12/2020 465/470 620/628 565/573 60/70 365/378 245/293
28/12/2020 460/465 615/625 560/570 60/70 350/367 245/293
25/12/2020 460/465 615/625 560/570 60/70 350/367 245/293
24/12/2020 460/465 615/625 560/570 60/70 350/367 245/293
23/12/2020 470/475 622/632 575/580 60/70 350/367 245/293
22/12/2020 472/476 622/630 570/578 60/70 340/362 250/295
21/12/2020 472/476 622/632 570/580 55/68 340/362 250/295
18/12/2020 472/477 622/630 570/577 55/68 340/362 250/295

 Bureau De Change Naira Rates

Date USD GBP EURO
NGN BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL
15/01/2020 460/475 630/638 570/577
14/01/2020 460/475 630/638 570/577
13/01/2020 460/470 626/633 565/576
12/01/2020 460/470 626/633 566/576
11/01/2020 460/470 620/630 560/573
08/01/2020 460/470 615/625 555/573
07/01/2020 460/470 615/623 550/570
06/01/2020 460/470 610/623 550/572
05/01/2020 460/470 615/624 550/572
04/01/2020 460/470 615/624 550/572
31/12/2020 460/470 600/626 550/573
30/12/2020 460/470 600/626 550/573
29/12/2020 455/475 600/626 550/573
28/12/2020 455/475 605/628 555/573
25/12/2020 455/475 600/628 550/575
24/12/2020 455/474 600/628 555/575
23/12/2020 460/475 621/632 568/580
22/12/2020 470/475 620/631 568/577
21/12/2020 470/475 620/631 568/577

Central Bank of Nigeria’s Official Naira Rates

Date Currency Buying(NGN) Central(NGN) Selling(NGN)
1/15/2021 US DOLLAR 379 379.5 380
1/15/2021 POUNDS STERLING 516.9181 517.6001 518.282
1/15/2021 EURO 459.4996 460.1058 460.712
1/15/2021 SWISS FRANC 426.8499 427.413 427.9761
1/15/2021 YEN 3.6548 3.6596 3.6644
1/15/2021 CFA 0.6839 0.6939 0.7039
1/15/2021 WAUA 545.8708 546.5909 547.3111
1/15/2021 YUAN/RENMINBI 58.531 58.6087 58.6864
1/15/2021 RIYAL 101.0236 101.1568 101.2901
1/15/2021 SOUTH AFRICAN RAND 24.8724 24.9052 24.938

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