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More Forex Crisis as Senate Okays N305 to $1 for Budget

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  • More Forex Crisis as Senate Okays N305 to $1 for Budget

The Senate yesterday retained the foreign exchange rate of N305 to the dollar for the 2017 budget. This was part of the key decisions by the upper legislative chamber while passing the Medium Term Expenditure Framework and Fiscal Strategy Paper (MTEF/FSP).

Adopting the recommendations of its Joint Committee on Finance, Appropriation and National Planning on the document, the Senate however, raised the proposed oil benchmark of $42.50 in 2017 budget to $44.5 per barrel.

The decision to retain a conservative exchange rate benchmark of N305 per dollar could further mount pressure on the naira, especially as the CBN has failed to meet forex demand in recent times. Industry experts had condemned the wide gap between official exchange rate and that of the parallel market, saying it was the reason for the weak naira.

Presenting the report, the joint committee chairman, John Enoh, stated that “a judicious monetary fiscal policy mix and deliberate government policies to expand the productive base of the economy would be expedient to improve the exchange value of the naira relative to the dollar.”

According to him, “it has become obvious that the fixed exchange rate regime as implemented in Nigeria is no longer useful. The sustained and widening gap between the official exchange rate and the parallel market has created several loopholes in the system. However, the recent transition from fixed exchange rate regime to flexible exchange regime appears commendable.”

He commended the recent migration from fixed exchange rate regime to flexible exchange rate regime but tasked the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to put in place measures meant to close the gap between parallel market and the official exchange rate.

Defending its decision to raise the oil benchmark, the committee said international oil industry watchers had forecast that oil prices were gradually heading towards $60 per barrel.

The Senate also approved the recommendation to retain 2.2 million barrel per day oil production volume, observing that the projection is achievable if the Federal Government makes concerted efforts to stem the tide of militancy in the Niger Delta.

The Senate approved the government’s borrowing plan of N2.321 trillion, made up of N1.253 trillion as domestic borrowing and N1.067 trillion external borrowing. It charged the government to be focused and ensure that the loans are used to finance critical projects capable of increasing productivity which will in turn yield revenue to service the debt.

The lawmakers approved government’s independent revenue projection of N807.57 billion as contained in the revised MTEF and FSP just as it approved the projected N5.122 trillion non-oil revenue in 2017. They tasked the revenue collection agencies to “intensify their collections drive to boost the non-oil components of the revenue.”

But Ben Murray-Bruce (Bayelsa East) faulted the approval of N305 exchange rate. He said: “You have pegged the exchange rate at N305 to the dollar. Nobody in this room today can go to the bank and buy the dollar at N305 and so, we have an exchange rate that is ridiculous. The black market is about N500 and it is only about N200 differential. Between 1960 and 1980, despite the civil war, when (Chief Obafemi Awolowo was federal commissioner for finance), the country was moving on without borrowing a penny.

“In the exchange rate between the official and black markets, there was no differential. In 1980, it was $1: 97cents to the naira and the difference between official and black market was N10 kobo.

“When (Shehu) Shagari was overthrown on December 31st in 1983, the official rate of exchange was N3 to the dollar and the black market was N4 to the dollar. So, it was a N1 differential. Three years ago, it was a N10 to N15 differential between the black market and the official rate.

“Today, it is N200 and so, it is better for businessmen to round trip than to manufacture. The exchange rate we have is encouraging round tripping. When the exchange rate encourages round tripping, we will never close the gap because the richest people in Nigeria today are treasurers of banks. The exchange rate is wrong. N305 is unrealistic.”

The House of Representatives also yesterday adopted $44. 5 per barrel as benchmark price for the 2017 budget.The resolution followed the adoption of the report of Ibrahim Babangida- led joint House committees on Finance, Appropriation, National Planning and Economic Development, Legislative Budget and Research and Aids, Loans and Debt Management on the 2017-2019 Medium Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) and Fiscal Strategy Paper (FSP) at the plenary presided over by the Deputy Speaker, Sulaimon Yussuf Lasun.

Also, the Senate yesterday resolved to probe ‎the use of about N130 billion donated by international bodies to non-governmental organisations (NGOs) in Nigeria to fund humanitarian relief activities in the North East.

Adopting a motion by Ali Ndume (APC, Borno South), titled “The state of Humanitarian Relief Effort in the North East amidst high level of funding so far”, the upper legislative chamber mandated its Committee on Special Duties to initiate the process of synergising between United Nations, donor agencies, NGOs, federal, state and local governments to ensure effective coordination of the humanitarian response for the benefit of the displaced persons and victims of the insurgency in the North East, and report back in two weeks.

Ndume noted that‎ the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA) reported that over $426 million or N130 billion had been received as at December 2016. “Although an estimated N36 billion worth of funding for food security has been reportedly donated towards alleviating the food security problem in the north east, malnutrition has reached extreme levels in parts of Borno, Adamawa, and Yobe states,” Ndume said.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Crude Oil

NNPC and Newcross Set to Boost Awoba Unit Field Production to 12,000 bpd

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NNPC and Newcross Exploration and Production Ltd are working together to increase production at the Awoba Unit Field to 12,000 barrels per day (bpd) within the next 30 days.

This initiative, aimed at optimizing hydrocarbon asset production, follows the recent restart of operations at the Awoba field, which commenced this month after a hiatus.

The field, located in the mangrove swamp south of Port Harcourt, Rivers State, ceased production in 2021 due to logistical challenges and crude oil theft.

The joint venture between NNPC and Newcross is poised to bolster national revenue and meet OPEC production quotas, contributing significantly to Nigeria’s energy sector.

Mele Kyari, NNPC’s Group Chief Executive Officer, attributes this achievement to a conducive operating environment fostered by the administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

The endeavor underscores a collective effort involving stakeholders from various sectors, including staff, operators, host communities, and security agencies, aimed at revitalizing Nigeria’s oil and gas sector.

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Gold

Gold Prices Slide Below $2,300 as Investors Digest Fed’s Rate Outlook

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Amidst a backdrop of global economic shifts and geopolitical recalibration, gold prices dipped below the $2,300 price level.

The decline comes as investors carefully analyse signals from the Federal Reserve regarding its future interest rate policies.

After reaching record highs earlier this month, gold suffered its most daily decline in nearly two years, shedding 2.7% on Monday.

The recent retreat reflects a multifaceted landscape where concerns over escalating tensions in the Middle East have eased, coupled with indications that the Federal Reserve may maintain higher interest rates for a prolonged period.

Richard Grace, a senior currency analyst and international economist at ITC Markets, noted that tactical short-selling likely contributed to the decline, especially given the rapid surge in gold prices witnessed recently.

Despite this setback, bullion remains up approximately 15% since mid-February, supported by ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, central bank purchases, and robust demand from Chinese consumers.

The shift in focus among investors now turns toward forthcoming US economic data, including key inflation metrics favored by the Federal Reserve.

These data points are anticipated to provide further insights into the central bank’s monetary policy trajectory.

Over recent weeks, policymakers have adopted a more hawkish tone in response to consistently strong inflation reports, leading market participants to adjust their expectations regarding the timing of future interest rate adjustments.

As markets recalibrate their expectations for monetary policy, the prospect of a higher-for-longer interest rate environment poses challenges for gold, which traditionally does not offer interest-bearing returns.

Spot gold prices dropped by 1.2% to $2,298.67 an ounce, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index remaining relatively stable. Silver, palladium, and platinum also experienced declines following gold’s retreat.

The ongoing interplay between economic indicators, geopolitical developments, and central bank policies continues to shape the trajectory of precious metal markets.

While gold faces near-term headwinds, its status as a safe-haven asset and store of value ensures that it remains a focal point for investors navigating uncertain global dynamics.

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Crude Oil

Oil Prices Hold Firm Despite Middle East Tensions

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Despite ongoing tensions in the Middle East, oil prices remained resilient, holding steady above key levels on Tuesday.

Brent crude oil traded above $87 a barrel after a slight dip of 0.3% on the previous trading day, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) hovered around $82 a barrel.

The stability in oil prices comes amidst a backdrop of positive sentiment across global markets, with signs of strength in various sectors countering concerns about geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

One of the factors supporting oil prices is the weakening of the US dollar, which makes commodities priced in the currency more attractive to international investors.

Concurrently, equities experienced gains, contributing to the overall positive market sentiment.

However, geopolitical risks persist as Israel intensifies efforts to eliminate what it claims is the last stronghold of Hamas in Gaza and secure the release of remaining hostages.

These actions are expected to keep tensions elevated in the region, adding uncertainty to oil markets.

Despite the geopolitical tensions, options markets have shown a more optimistic outlook in recent days regarding the potential for a spike in oil prices. This suggests that market participants are cautiously optimistic about the resolution of conflicts in the region.

Despite the lingering risks, oil prices have remained below the $90 per barrel price level, a level that many analysts consider significant, particularly as the summer months approach, typically known as the peak demand season for oil.

While prices have experienced some volatility, they have yet to reach the $90 threshold, prompting expectations of further increases later in the year.

Jeff Currie, chief strategy officer of energy pathways at Carlyle Group, expressed confidence in the potential for oil prices to surpass $100 per barrel, citing tight market conditions indicated by timespreads.

However, he also noted the importance of monitoring OPEC’s response to rising prices, as the organization may adjust production levels to stabilize the market.

Overall, while geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to pose risks to oil markets, the resilience of oil prices amidst these challenges underscores the complex interplay of global factors influencing commodity markets.

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