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IMF Links Nigeria’s Economic Woes to Poor Management

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  • IMF Links Nigeria’s Economic Woes to Poor Management

The International Monetary Fund has said that efforts to save the naira by rationing foreign exchange have failed.

The IMF stated this in its policy paper on macroeconomic developments and prospects in low-income developing countries on Thursday.

The fund attributed economic failures in the country to “delayed/poorly managed policy adjustment.”

It stated, “Domestic policy failures cited include delayed/poorly managed policy adjustment to lower commodity prices (as in Nigeria, where foreign exchange rationing adversely affected debt service capacity of many corporates).”

The IMF also blamed the failures on lack of business confidence and delay in policy adjustment by Nigeria’s leadership.

It said that the challenges concerning foreign exchange had pushed inflation to double digits in Nigeria, Africa’s largest economy.

The IMF added, “There were sharp movements in currencies across many LIDCs during 2015. Further sizeable depreciations were recorded in 2016 in commodity exporters under stress,” the paper read.

It added, “Mongolia, where reserve levels have been significantly eroded, and Nigeria, where efforts to support the naira through foreign exchange rationing, have gradually crumbled.

“Inflation has risen to troubling levels in a handful of cases, concentrated in sub-Saharan Africa. Among commodity exporters, large exchange rate depreciations were a key contributor in Mozambique, Nigeria, and Zambia.”

According to the fund, Nigeria is affected by Boko Haram-led attacks in the North and disruptions to oil production in the Niger Delta region.

“Aside from direct damage and increased security outlays, conflict situations undermine business confidence, investment, and tourism,” it stated.

It added that Nigeria’s economic problems affected neighbouring countries such as Chad and Benin Republic.

The fund stated, “External developments have predictably played an important causal role in the emergence of financial sector stress, through falling commodity prices, declining remittances, and adverse spillovers from neighbours — as in the impact of Nigeria’s economic difficulties on Benin Republic.

“That said, teams’ assessments indicate that poor macroeconomic policies and weak supervision have also played a significant contributory role.”

It said that the recent experience of LIDCs underscored the relevance of some general messages for developing countries in terms of building economic resilience, which include “the value of having a diverse export base to allow countries handle adverse external shocks, and hence the importance of promoting economic diversification.

Others are the importance of building large foreign reserve/asset positions during “good times” in countries where exports remain highly concentrated; and the need to build a strong broad based domestic tax system drawing from a diverse set of sectors and tax instruments, to strengthen self-reliance in financing essential public service.

Is the CEO and Founder of Investors King Limited. He is a seasoned foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Business Insider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and other prominent platforms. With over two decades of experience in global financial markets, Olukoya is well-recognized in the industry.

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Economy

President Tinubu Approves Concrete Redesign for Abuja-Kaduna Road Amid Contract Termination

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The Federal Government has announced plans to address the difficulties faced by road users on the Abuja-Kaduna-Zaria-Kano road with the redesign of the dual carriageway.

This announcement was made by the Minister of Works, David Umahi via a statement on Wednesday.

The Ministry revealed that the 127 kilometers project has been approved by President Bola Tinubu.

This development comes two days after the Ministry of Works announced the termination of its contract with Julius Berger for the Section I (Abuja-Kaduna) of the Abuja-Kaduna-Zaria-Kano Dual Carriageway project in FCT, Kaduna, and Kano States.

Investors King understands that the contract for the rehabilitation of the road was awarded to Messrs Julius Berger (Nig.) Plc on December 20, 2017.

The project, initially valued at N155.7 billion, with a 36-month completion period was further categorized into three sections.

However, only Section II (Kaduna-Zaria) has been completed and partially handed over.

Section III (Zaria-Kano) is partially finished while Section I remains in a severely deteriorated state.

A statement from the Ministry explained that the decision to terminate the contract with Berger was based on non-compliance with reviewed cost, scope, and terms, stoppage of work, and refusal to remobilise to site.

The ministry on Wednesday, November 6, confirmed that Section I has been redesigned and re-scoped.

The statement reads, “The President, His Excellency, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, GCFR has approved that the remaining 127 kilometres of the Rehabilitation of Abuja – Kaduna – Zaria – Kano Dual Carriageway, Section I (Abuja – Kaduna) be redesigned using continuously reinforced concrete pavement (CRCP) instead of the present asphaltic one.”  

“The contract, divided into three (3) sections, was awarded to Messrs Julius Berger (Nig.) PLC on 20th December 2017 at an initial sum of N155, 748,178,425.50 billion (one hundred and fifty-five billion, seven hundred and forty-eight million, one hundred and seventy-eight thousand, four hundred and twenty-five naira, fifty kobo) with a completion period of thirty-six (36) months.” 

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Tax Expert Warns Tinubu: VAT, PAYE Hikes Will Deepen Hardship for Nigerians

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Company Income Tax (CIT) - Investors King

Due to Nigeria’s economic situation, tax expert Adebisi Oderinde has urged President Bola Ahmed Tinubu to halt plans to increase the VAT and Pay-As-You-Earn (PAYE) tax rates.

Oderinde, who is also the CEO of AOC-Adebisi Oderinde & Co, made the statement during the inauguration of the company’s Head Office in the Kara area of Ogun State.

He said the country’s economic conditions are challenging and particularly unfavorable for SMEs and warned that implementing tax reform could destabilize many small businesses as inflation has already eroded purchasing power in Nigeria.

With over 28 years of experience as a tax consultant, Oderinde noted that new tax reforms would likely worsen hardship across the country.

“My advice is to make hay while the sun shines, as the journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step, and slow and steady wins the race. The country is hard! As a tax practitioner, I continue to pray for our President, but he must heed the advice of elders, especially when it concerns tax reform,” he said.

“This is not the right time to reform any tax, nor to adjust rates. Nigerians’ purchasing power is very low. While some may think of VAT reform as beneficial, it would have a negative impact, especially on Lagos State. One part of the reform aims to cancel the consumption tax, which would hit Lagos hard, as the state earns more from consumption tax than any other state in the federation,” he added.

Oderinde further advised northern Nigeria not to support the proposed policy, warning it could disproportionately affect the region.

“They also want to increase PAYE, and recent data from the NBS in 2023 shows that the total IGR from the 36 states plus the FCT is about N2.4tn, with PAYE accounting for about 63%. If PAYE is raised, it will impact many states significantly. Instead of focusing on VAT, the northern states should consider that an increase in PAYE would affect them even more than VAT,” he explained.

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Power Restored Hours After Lastest Grid Collapse

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Electricity - Investors King

Electricity has been restored in some parts of the states that were hitherto affected by the nation’s power grid collapse.

Investors King gathered that some states including Lagos, Osun, Federal Capital Territory among others now have light.

Recall that the Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN) had on Tuesday announced the latest National Grid collapse.

Checks by Investors King, however, revealed that the last disruption was the tenth time Nigeria would be experiencing total blackout due to grid collapse in about nine months in 2024 alone.

The situation has been raising concerns from Nigerians and other stakeholders even as others alleged that the collapse has led to inferno in people’s homes among other property destruction.

The General Manager of TCN Public Affairs, Ndidi Mbah, had assured members of the public that the grid collapse which occurred at 1:52 pm on November 5 would be speedily fixed.

The GM revealed that the grid collapse was caused by line and generator trippings, adding that efforts were on to rectify it.

Mbah had disclosed how the national grid experienced a partial disturbance due to a series of line and generator trippings that caused instability in the grid and, consequently, the partial disturbance of the system.

Each time the disruption through citizens into darkness, businesses are affected as many Nigerians task the Federal Government to tackle the menace.

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