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Naira May Reverse Loss This Week

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Naira - Investors King
  • Naira May Reverse Loss This Week

The naira is seen strengthening in the near term as Bureau De Change operators expect dollar supplies from international money transfer agents to boost liquidity.

The local currency held steady at 490 to the dollar on the parallel market on Friday, the same level as the previous week, while the naira was quoted at 305 to the dollar at the official interbank window, Reuters reported.

“We continue to see the naira hovering between 400 and 480 as the Central Bank of Nigeria fine-tunes its policy to streamline rates and as we see an increased dollar supply,” the President, Association of Bureau De Change Operators, Aminu Gwadabe, said.

Economic and currency experts have expressed divergent views over the outlook of the naira this year.

While some said the naira would experience further decline at the parallel market this year, others said the volatility noticed in the exchange rate last year could not continue this year.

“We will continue to see reasonable volatility of the naira during the first half of this year. The fundamental issues underlying the volatility of the naira have not been addressed,” a currency analyst at Ecobank Nigeria, Mr. Kunle Ezun, said.

According to Ezun, the naira will continue to depreciate at the parallel market while the Central Bank of Nigeria will keep managing the official rate around 305/dollar.

“It will depreciate further but there has been some resistance around 500/dollar. The CBN seems to have come to the end of monetary policy because it is the issue of liquidity,” the Ecobank analyst added.

For a director at the Union Capital Markets, Mr. Egie Akpata, the direction of the naira-dollar exchange rate this year will be determined by the CBN’s policies, oil output and price.

He said, “A lot depends on what the CBN does because exchange rate is driven by the kind of administrative management in place at the forex market. The direction of the oil price and output this year will also determine which way the exchange rate will go.”

An economic analyst at EY, Mr. Bisi Sanda, believes most economic indicators are moving in the direction that is favourable to the country.

He, however, said that unless the economic and forex managers used this to the country’s advantage, the naira and the economy in general would be thrown into further chaos.

Sanda said, “Everything depends on what the Federal Government decides to do. For example, we don’t need more than 3000 Bureau De Change operators in this country, and the CBN does not need to allocate forex to them.

“The leakages that have characterised forex management in the country are the reason for the current volatility in the exchange rate. The oil output and price are now going in the directions that are favourable to us. So we should take advantage of this.”

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Loans

Federal Government Spends $1.12 Billion on Foreign Debt Servicing in Q1 2024

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The Federal Government has disclosed that it pays $1.12 billion to service foreign debts in the first quarter of 2024 alone.

This amount shows the escalating burden of external debt on the nation’s fiscal health.

Data gleaned from the international payment segment of the Central Bank of Nigeria website reveals a steady upward trajectory in debt service payments, both over the past few years and within the first quarter of 2024.

When this is compared to the same period in 2023, debt servicing rose by 39.7 percent in Q1, 2024.

The breakdown of the debt service payments paints a picture of fluctuating yet consistently high expenditure.

January 2024 commenced with an imposing debt servicing obligation of $560.52 million, a stark contrast to the $112.35 million recorded in January 2023.

While February 2024 witnessed a moderation in debt servicing payments to $283.22 million and March 2024 saw a further decrease to $276.17 million.

Alarmingly, approximately 70 percent of Nigeria’s dollar payments were allocated to service external debts during the first quarter of 2024.

Out of the total outflows amounting to $1.61 billion, a substantial $1.12 billion was directed towards debt servicing, significantly surpassing the corresponding figure of 49 percent in Q1 2023.

The depletion of foreign exchange reserves, which experienced a recent one-month dip streak has been attributed primarily to debt repayments and other financial obligations rather than efforts to defend the naira, according to CBN Governor Yemi Cardoso.

The World Bank has expressed profound concern over the escalating debt service burdens facing developing countries globally, emphasizing the urgent need for coordinated action to avert a widespread financial crisis.

With record-level debt and soaring interest rates, many developing nations, including Nigeria, face an increasingly precarious economic path, fraught with challenges regarding resource allocation and financial stability.

The Debt Management Office (DMO) has previously disclosed that Nigeria incurred a debt service of $3.5 billion for its external loans in 2023, marking a 55 percent increase from the previous year.

This worrisome trend underscores the pressing need for robust fiscal management and prudent debt repayment strategies to safeguard Nigeria’s financial stability and foster sustainable economic growth.

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Emefiele Trial: Witness Details Alleged Extortion by CBN Director Over $400,000

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In the ongoing trial of Godwin Emefiele, former governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), a significant revelation emerged as Victor Onyejiuwa, managing director of The Source Computers Limited, took the stand as the fourth witness.

His testimony shed light on alleged extortion involving a substantial sum of $400,000.

Onyejiuwa recounted his company’s involvement with the CBN from 2014 to 2019, providing technology support and securing multiple contracts, including one for enterprise storage and servers in 2017.

However, post-execution of the contract, he faced pressure from John Ikechukwu Ayoh, a former CBN director, regarding the release of funds.

According to Onyejiuwa’s testimony, Ayoh approached him, indicating that CBN management required a portion of the contract’s funds.

He alleged that Ayoh threatened to withhold payment approval if his demands were not met. Feeling coerced, Onyejiuwa acceded to Ayoh’s request after several discussions.

To ensure the contract’s payment, Onyejiuwa revealed that he organized the sum of $400,000 along with an additional $200,000, yielding a total of $600,000.

This payment, made within two to three weeks, facilitated the release of funds for the contract.

During his testimony, Onyejiuwa disclosed contract amounts, including a significant $1.2 billion contract, along with others valued at $2.1 million, N340,000, and N17 million.

These revelations provide insight into the alleged irregularities surrounding contract payments at the CBN.

Following Onyejiuwa’s testimony, Emefiele’s legal counsel requested an adjournment for cross-examination at the next hearing, which was granted by Justice Rahman Oshodi. The trial is set to resume on May 17.

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IMF Gives Nod as Congo Inches Closer to Historic Loan Program Completion

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The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) received a positive review from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Wednesday in a crucial step toward completing its first-ever IMF loan program.

Following the completion of the sixth and final review in the Congolese capital, Kinshasa, IMF staff are set to recommend to the executive board the approval of the last disbursement of Congo’s three-year $1.5 billion extended credit facility.

This development positions Congo on the brink of achieving a milestone in its financial history.

Despite facing fiscal pressures exacerbated by ongoing conflict in the eastern regions and the recent elections in December 2023, the IMF lauded Congo’s overall performance as “generally positive”.

The country’s economy heavily relies on mineral exports, particularly copper and cobalt, essential components in electric vehicle batteries.

According to the IMF, Congo’s economy exhibited robust growth, expanding by 8.3% last year, fueled largely by its ascent to become the world’s second-largest copper producer.

However, persistent insecurity in eastern Congo, attributed to the activities of over 100 armed groups vying for control over resources and political representation, has hindered the nation’s economic progress.

The positive assessment by the IMF underscores Congo’s achievements in enhancing its economic fundamentals, including an increase in reserves, which reached $5.5 billion by the end of 2023, equivalent to approximately two months of imports.

Despite these gains, challenges remain, with high inflation rates hovering around 24% at the close of last year.

The IMF emphasized the necessity of enacting a new budget law following the renegotiation of a minerals-for-infrastructure contract with China. Under the revised terms, Congo is slated to receive $324 million annually in development financing backed by revenue from a copper and cobalt joint venture.

Looking ahead, the IMF’s executive board is anticipated to deliberate on the staff recommendation in July. If approved, the disbursement of approximately $200 million will fortify Congo’s international reserves, providing a crucial buffer against economic volatility.

Also, Congo’s government intends to seek a new Extended Credit Facility (ECF) from the IMF, signaling its commitment to ongoing economic reforms and sustainable growth.

The IMF’s endorsement represents a significant validation of Congo’s economic trajectory and underscores the nation’s efforts to navigate complex challenges while advancing towards financial stability and prosperity.

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