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Nigeria Loses N115bn to Crude Terminal Shutdown

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  • Nigeria Loses N115bn to Crude Terminal Shutdown

With global oil prices trading above the $50 per barrel mark since November 30, the shutdown of the Forcados terminal, through which the nation’s largest crude oil grade is exported, has led to a loss of at least N115bn in 24 days.

Wednesday, December 21, 2016 marked exactly 10 months that Shell, the operator of the terminal, declared force majeure on the export of Forcados.

The force majeure, a legal clause that allows it to stop shipments without breaching contracts, came a week after the Forcados export line was attacked by militants in the Niger Delta. It has yet to be lifted as of the time of filing this report.

The Presidency had in late October quoted the Shell Director, Mr. Andrew Brown, as saying that the oil major had resumed crude exports from the facility following repairs. He reportedly said this at a meeting with President Muhammadu Buhari.

In early November, there was another attack on the Trans Forcados oil pipeline carrying crude oil and gas to the Forcados export terminal.

According to the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation, at Forcados terminal alone, about 300,000 barrels of oil per day have been shut in since February 2016 following the force majeure declared by Shell Petroleum Development Company.

“A number of crude oil lifting was deferred until the repair is completed. Other major terminals affected by the renewed spate of vandalism include Bonny, Usan, Qua Ibo, and the recently attacked Nembe Creek trunk line,” the NNPC said in its latest monthly report.

The International Energy Agency had in April estimated that Nigeria could lose about $1bn (N197bn) in revenue by May, when repairs of the Forcados terminal were expected to have been completed.

The IEA said, “The Forcados terminal in Delta State, one of Nigeria’s biggest terminals, was scheduled to load 250,000 barrels of crude per day. At $40 per barrel, Nigeria could lose about $1bn between February, when force majeure was declared, and May, when repairs are expected to be completed.”

But as of Friday December 23, the force majeure had not been lifted.

At an average oil price of $53 per barrel and exchange rate of N305 to the dollar, the country lost at least N115.2bn from December 1 to 24.

The Media Relations Manager, SPDC, Mr. Precious Okolobo, told our correspondent in a telephone interview on Friday that he could not tell when the terminal would come back on stream.

“Forcados terminal is still shut down. I cannot give precise timing on when the pipeline will be reopened,” he said.

Oil exports account for about 80 per cent of the Nigerian government revenue, and exports sales are accrued to the government’s account two or three months later.

The nation’s oil output plummeted to near 30-year lows of around 1.4 million barrels per day in May from 2.2 million bpd earlier in the year as attacks on oil facilities in the Niger Delta rose at an alarming rate.

Reuters reported that trading was thin on Thursday with the approaching holidays, with Nigerian crude still in overhang while some programmes were slow to emerge due to strikes at ExxonMobil’s fields.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

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Gas-Pipeline

The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

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IMF Report: Nigeria’s Inflation to Dip to 26.3% in 2024, Growth Expected at 3.3%

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IMF global - Investors King

Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2024 appears cautiously optimistic with projections indicating a potential decrease in the country’s inflation rate alongside moderate economic growth.

The IMF’s revised Global Economic Outlook for 2024 highlights key forecasts for Nigeria’s economic landscape and gave insights into both inflationary trends and GDP expansion.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 26.3% by the end of 2024.

This projection aligns with expectations of a gradual easing of inflationary pressures within the country, although challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate fluctuations continue to pose significant hurdles to price stability.

In tandem with the inflation forecast, the IMF also predicts a modest economic growth rate of 3.3% for Nigeria in 2024.

This growth projection reflects a cautious optimism regarding the country’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of various internal and external challenges.

Despite the ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and address macroeconomic imbalances, the IMF underscores the need for continued policy reforms and prudent fiscal management to sustain growth momentum.

The IMF report provides valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic trajectory, offering policymakers, investors, and stakeholders a comprehensive understanding of the country’s macroeconomic dynamics.

While the projected decline in inflation and modest growth outlook offer reasons for cautious optimism, it remains essential for Nigerian authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing underlying structural vulnerabilities and promoting inclusive economic development.

As the country navigates through a challenging economic landscape, concerted efforts towards policy coordination, investment promotion, and structural reforms will be crucial in unlocking Nigeria’s full growth potential and fostering long-term prosperity.

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South Africa’s March Inflation Hits Two-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

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South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s inflation rate declined to a two-month low, according to data released by Statistics South Africa.

Consumer prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in February. While this decline may initially suggest a positive trend, analysts caution against premature optimism due to various economic factors at play.

The weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, coupled with drought conditions affecting staple crops like white corn and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices, poses significant challenges.

These factors are expected to keep inflation relatively high and stubborn in the coming months, making policymakers hesitant to adjust borrowing costs.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, reiterated the bank’s cautious stance on inflation pressures.

Despite the recent easing, inflation has consistently remained above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3-6% since May 2021. Consequently, the bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 8.25% for nearly a year, aiming to anchor inflation expectations.

While some traders speculate on potential interest rate hikes, forward-rate agreements indicate a low likelihood of such a move at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

The yield on 10-year bonds also saw a marginal decline following the release of the inflation data.

March’s inflation decline was mainly attributed to lower prices in miscellaneous goods and services, education, health, and housing and utilities.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained relatively steady at 4.9%.

Overall, South Africa’s inflation trajectory underscores the delicate balance between economic recovery and inflation containment amid ongoing global uncertainties.

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